Top tips from the CFB betting splits for Friday October 25th

Tonight we have a triple-header of Friday Night Lights sweatshirts across the college football gridiron. Let’s explore where smart money is headed using our VSiN CFB betting splits. These come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10 minutes.

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Louisville (4-3) has lost three of its last four games, falling just short to Miami 52-45 and unable to catch up as a 4.5-point home dog. Similarly, Boston College (4-3) has lost two straight games and was just steamrolled by Virginia Tech 42-21, failing to cover as an 8.5-point road winner. This line opened with Louisville listed as a 6.5-point road favorite. We saw Louisville go from -6.5 to -7.5 with 54% of spread bets making the difference. However, we're starting to see signs of an over-buyout at Boston College, as multiple deals boost the Eagles to +7.5 (-115), pointing to a possible gameday drop to +7. Boston College receives 46% of the spread bets but 63% of the spread dollars, a sharply contrarian “lower stakes, higher dollars” betting split. Boston College is valuable as a conference dog because the built-in familiarity levels the playing field and benefits the team in scoring points. The Eagles also have a corresponding betting value as a touchdown-plus dog in a relatively low game total (53), with the lower number of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover the number. The Eagles enjoy a two-day rest advantage as they last played on Thursday of last week, while Louisville played on Saturday. Boston College is 3-0 at home while Louisville is 1-1 on the road. Based on the total, the audience bets on the over in 80% of the bets. However, despite this unilateral action, the line has remained unchanged at 53, indicating a sharp freeze in the line below.

Boise State (5-1, 17th) has won four straight games and narrowly edged out Hawaii 28-7, but was unable to cover itself as a 21.5-point away favorite. Meanwhile, UNLV (6-1) has won two straight games and just beat Oregon State 33-25 to become a 6.5-point road favorite. This line opened with Boise State listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public believes this line is far too short and 83% of spread bets are rushing to the window to score with Boise State. This heavily lopsided bet saw the Broncos go from -3 to -3.5. However, we now see a strong buyback in UNLV and the catch as several trades upgrade the Rebels by +3.5 (-115). UNLV is the best contrarian game of the night as they only receive 17% of the spread bets in a primetime game. UNLV, as an unranked home conference dog, has a buy-low value against a sell-high ranked opponent. The Rebels are also a “dog that can make system matchups” (43.6 PPG) to keep pace or cover back doors. Pros also hit the under, lowering the total from 66.5 to 63. This move is particularly notable as 75% of bets take the over, although this number has fallen.

Rutgers (4-3) has lost three straight games and came up just short against UCLA, 35-32, as a 4.5-point home favorite. USC (3-4) has also lost three games in a row and just lost 29-28 to Maryland, a 7.5-point away favorite. That line started with USC listed as a 13.5-point home favorite. The public is not afraid of the heavy chalk and 62% of spread bets are on USC. This caused USC to go from -13.5 to -14.5. Once the hook was available, we saw a respectable buyback at Rutgers +14.5, bringing the line back down to +14. Rutgers receives just 38% of the spread bets in a nationally televised high-stakes game on FOX, providing remarkable value. We also saw Smart Money hit the over and the total rose from 55.5 to 56.5. This move is notable because the public is leaning downward (53% of bets) but the limit is increasing. This suggests that the Wiseguys are engaging in strong, contrarian overplay.