NOAA releases annual winter outlook for 2024-2025 season: NPR

Federal forecasters expect a La Niña climate pattern to form in the coming months, offering a possible picture of what the weather could look like this winter across the U.S., according to a report released Thursday.

The annual winter forecast report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center says there is a 60% chance of a La Niña event occurring by the end of November. La Niña is characterized by cooler than normal ocean temperatures in the Pacific, which typically results in drier, warmer conditions in the southern part of the ocean and cooler, wetter weather in the northern part of the continental United States

This year's La Niña is expected to be weaker and shorter than previous years, making it somewhat difficult to predict months in advance.

What federal meteorologists know so far is that much of the south and east coasts will experience above-average temperatures this winter. According to NOAA, this is particularly true in Texas and states along the Gulf Coast such as Alabama, Florida, Louisiana and Mississippi.

The 2024-2025 U.S. Winter Outlook temperature map shows the greatest chance of cooler-than-average conditions in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

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Meanwhile, the likelihood of cooler than normal conditions is higher from the Pacific Northwest to the northern high plains. These include the states of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, western Minnesota and northern Wyoming.

There is also a chance that the Pacific Northwest and parts of Montana and Wyoming will experience wetter than average conditions in the coming months. Areas in the Great Lakes region are also at risk for wetter than average conditions, with this likelihood greatest in parts of Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky.

Further south, states bordering the Gulf of Mexico, as well as Texas and southern New Mexico, are likely to experience drier than average conditions this winter.

NOAA also expects widespread moderate to extreme drought to continue across much of the Great Plains and parts of the Rocky Mountains. Drought is also likely to occur or worsen in the Southwest and Gulf Coast.

Meanwhile, the center said drought conditions are expected to improve or possibly even end in parts of the Ohio River Valley, the Great Lakes region and parts of the northwestern U.S. in Washington, Oregon and Idaho.