Democrats are bracing for a crack in the Blue Wall and signs of slide in North Carolina

The “blue walls” of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania paved the way to the White House for the last two Democratic presidents.

But with just 14 days until the election on November 5th, Kamala Harris' campaign is concerned about whether the vice president can claim all three states.

Recent discussions have focused on the possibility that an anomaly could occur this year with only a portion of the blue wall breaching. According to three sources with knowledge of the campaign's strategy, discussions focused on whether Michigan or Wisconsin would “fall” to former President Donald Trump while the other two states plummeted.

Losing Wisconsin or Michigan would mean that even if Harris secures Pennsylvania – where both Harris and Trump have spent the most time and resources – she would fall short of the necessary 270 electoral votes to win the White House without winning another or possibly two battleground states.

“There was a thought that maybe Michigan or Wisconsin would fall off,” said a senior Harris campaign official, who stressed that Michigan was the bigger concern. Two other people with knowledge of campaign strategy — who, like others in this article, were granted anonymity to speak candidly — also expressed deep concerns about Michigan. These people still believe that all states are close and that there are alternative paths to victory.

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A Harris campaign spokesman pushed back against deep concerns about Michigan, pointing to recent public polling. A Detroit News poll conducted Oct. 1-4 showed Harris, who campaigned in Michigan on Monday, with a slight lead in the state, as did a Washington Post poll on Monday.

“We are absolutely vying to win Michigan,” Harris campaign spokeswoman Lauren Hitt said, referencing Harris' presence there this week. “We believe we’re going to win Michigan.”

She added that she believes they will win Wisconsin as well and sees no signs of that slowing down.

But also potentially worrisome for Democrats: What Harris' campaign team had considered one of their best insurance options could also be in jeopardy. Just a few weeks ago, several Harris advisers suggested in interviews that combining the electoral votes from North Carolina and Nevada would be a strong alternative path for Harris should Trump win Pennsylvania and claim its 19 electoral votes.

While North Carolina is still in the campaign's sights and Democrats have strong organization and leadership there, the Harris team is far less optimistic about victory, four people with knowledge of the dynamic said.

“Of all seven [states]that seems to be slipping away a little bit,” the Harris campaign manager said of North Carolina.

The devastation caused by Hurricane Helene — and the rampant disinformation that followed — are factors that could weigh on Harris in North Carolina, these people said. One of the sources also pointed to a less competitive race for governor as a possible factor. A series of scandals upended Republican candidate Mark Robinson's campaign and left him far behind Democrat Josh Stein in polls. These developments have resulted in less local investment and less intensity on the ground, this person said.

After President Joe Biden withdrew from the nomination on July 21 and endorsed Harris, the Democratic map expanded to include the six battleground states Biden won in 2020 – the three blue wall states of Arizona, Nevada and Georgia – as well as North Carolina . While the Biden campaign built infrastructure in these states, his stubbornly low ratings on the economy and immigration actually kept only the three blue wall states in play. That changed when Harris entered the race. Suddenly enthusiasm, fundraising, and volunteer interest increased, and the positive surveys followed.

But as the Nov. 5 election approached, Harris and Trump were locked into a margin of error.

The Harris campaign has always said it is pursuing a seven-state battleground strategy, pouring its vast resources into organizing, building infrastructure in rural areas and squeezing Republicans in advertising spending.

“I don’t see any blue wall trail, sunbelt trail, or southern trail. I see seven states that are as close to each other as you can get, all decided locally by distance,” Harris Battleground State Director Dan Kanninen said in a recent interview. “And so we have built an operation that can win close races locally when we expect it to. And frankly, one of the seven states has as good a chance as any of becoming a tipping point.”

Since Harris took office, the campaign has viewed the blue wall states as central to its electoral path, but also sees states like Nevada as crucial to a victory even if Democrats stick to the blue wall in case it becomes legal challenges come. according to three campaign officials.

In the remaining states of Nevada, Arizona and Georgia, according to public polls, the election remains close or Harris is behind. Polls have shown Trump leading in Arizona and Georgia and Harris slightly ahead in Nevada.

Trump had his own problems. Reports of problematic operations on site in swing states are increasing. He has lagged behind Harris in fundraising, raising questions about whether he will have the resources to persuade low-propensity voters to turn out if competition remains tough. On Monday, he visited North Carolina, a sign that his campaign doesn't view it as a lock, even though it hasn't turned blue since 2008. He also took time there to repeat misinformation about Hurricane Helene that was debunked by his own party members.

In the last elections, the blue wall states played a crucial role in electing presidents. Barack Obama won them in his victories in 2008 and 2012. In 2016, Hillary Clinton lost the trio to Trump. She is still criticized in Wisconsin for bypassing the state in this year's general election. Biden restored the blue wall for Democrats in 2020.

In each of these cases, the three states moved in the same direction to ultimately strengthen the winner. Multiple sources in Harris' camp say each year this year has such unique economic and electoral characteristics that they could ultimately tip in a different direction.

The last time the Blue Wall did not vote unanimously was in 1988, when Michael Dukakis won Wisconsin while losing Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist who led electoral strategy for Democratic presidential candidates in 1988, 2000 and 2004, said it was historically unusual for the blue wall states to secede from one another, but did not rule it out. Devine said Harris has the edge in the states since he was on the winning ticket in 2020.

“These three, according to the blue wall states, almost always stay together, but this year it's an extraordinarily close race. When you're so close, the state can easily go one way or the other. It could happen this year,” he said. “I think it's more likely that they'll keep doing what they've done cycle after cycle. They will go together in one direction or the other. They are historically linked to one another in their voting behavior.”

In Michigan, a large Arab and Muslim population is protesting the Biden administration's handling of the Israel-Gaza war, and elected Democrats there have been issuing warning signals about the presidential race for months. Late last month, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a Senate candidate, warned that Harris was underwater in the state.

Still, the Democrats' recent electoral success and some preliminary early voting in Michigan give Harris hope of making it. Two years ago, the party flipped the Legislature to give Democrats a trifecta for the first time in 40 years. In April, Democrats won another special election and secured the chamber's majority. A strong organization in the state and positive numbers among women have ensured that things will be tight.

In Wisconsin, where Biden won by just over 20,000 votes in 2020, Democrats are concerned about white male voters and rural counties that have traditionally been strong for Trump. However, the liberal bastion of Dane County ultimately prevailed for Democrats, and the so-called WOW counties, the voter-rich trio of counties outside of Milwaukee, traditionally have a high proportion of female voters that Harris' team sees as supportive. And organizers, including union members who support Harris, have been across the state, including in rural counties, canvassing in ways that put Trump's organization to shame.

If Harris loses one of the blue wall states, it won't be for lack of attendance. She traveled across the Rust Belt, focusing on Pennsylvania. Harris has visited North Carolina twice so far this month, once on an official post-hurricane visit and a second time as part of a campaign trail. She was last in the state on October 13th. And vice presidential nominee Tim Walz and former Presidents Obama and Bill Clinton were all sent to North Carolina, a sign that Democrats still see a close contest.

Democratic pollster Matt Baretto, who has conducted polls for the Harris camp, said the race was far too close to discount any of the states for Harris, noting that Republicans – and much of the Media – predicted a red wave for 2022 that never happened.

“Right now Harris has an advantage in all three states – not a huge advantage – we know the election is close. In each of these states it will be 1 or 2 percent,” Baretto said. But he maintained that Harris was still excited. “It attracts huge crowds and a huge volunteer base. …She seems to be in a strong position. [But] There is still a lot to do.”