Polymarket Whale Traders: How 1% of Bettors Increase Trump's Odds

Since September 1st, more than 102,000 Polymarket users have bet on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States, pushing Trump's probability of victory to a high of 66.4% on Tuesday, although polls remain close. According to trading activity, a small number of users have an outsized influence on the odds of winning.

According to blockchain data from Dune.com, almost half of the total purchase volume comes from 670 electricity traders, representing 0.7% of all accounts. Many of these users act as market makers, constantly buying and selling to earn the small rewards that Polymarket pays to accounts that provide liquidity. These users typically operate on both sides of the market and have a limited presence.