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NHC is tracking 4 tropical waves

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The time for peace is over in the tropics.

The National Hurricane Center is currently tracking an extensive area of ​​low pressure in the Caribbean Sea that could become a tropical depression later this week or over the weekend.

AccuWeather weather forecasters have been warning about the possibility of a tropical depression or storm developing in the western Caribbean since last week and are currently giving the system a high chance of developing between October 31 and November 4.

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There is also another area with potential for development this weekend or early next week. This is located east-southeast of Florida.

The next named storms of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be Patty and Rafael.

Since 1851, three hurricanes have struck Florida in November, leaving residents emotionally and physically exhausted. The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30th.

“We are tired because the 2024 hurricane season has hit us harder than any other in a generation,” said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.

Here is the latest announcement from the NHC from Monday, October 28th at 8 a.m.:

Tropical Storm Patty? Will Florida have another storm or hurricane?

Two conditions that have played a role during this hurricane season could trigger another depression or tropical storm: low wind shear and very warm water.

“If there is low wind shear, which we expect, I think a tropical depression or storm will form,” said AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno.

Another factor this time is the Central American Gyre, which is more active at the beginning and end of the season. A vortex is an area of ​​slowly rotating air that can support the development of tropical systems.

“Although it can sometimes take several days for tropical storms that form from the vortex to become better organized, development can sometimes progress quickly once it begins,” AccuWeather said.

“Storms in the Caribbean typically move north or northeast in November. This means residents and visitors along the southeast coast will need to keep a close eye on developments,” DaSilva warned.

November brings tropical development closer to Florida, USA

While months earlier in the Atlantic hurricane season typically see tropical waves appear off the African coast, move across the Atlantic and provide timely notice to people, this is not the case in the final month of the season.

“As November begins, the focus of tropical development shifts closer to the United States. “Typically, the centers of gravity are in the Caribbean and off the southeast coast toward the end of the season,” said Alex DaSilva, senior hurricane expert at AccuWeather.

Another area to watch is southeast of Florida, USA

This area currently has little development prospects. It could form at the tail end of a cold front that will move off the East Coast later this week, according to AccuWeather.

“If a low pressure area forms and does not connect to the front, then the development potential would increase.”

A tropical depression could form in the Caribbean later this week

In a few days, an extensive low pressure area is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.

Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form later this week or over the weekend as the system begins to drift north or northeast over the southwest and central Caribbean Sea.

  • Chance of development within 48 hours: low, close to 0 percent.
  • Chance of education over 7 days: medium, 40 percent.

What else is there and how likely are they to intensify?

The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring four tropical waves:

  • East Atlantic: A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is moving westward along 35W, south of 15N, at a speed of 11 to 17 miles per hour.
  • East of the Leeward Islands: A tropical wave along 52W, south of 17N, is moving west at 11 to 17 mph.
  • Eastern Caribbean Sea: A tropical wave is moving along 68W through the eastern Caribbean and extending south into western Venezuela.
  • Southwest Caribbean: Another tropical wave has reached the Caribbean plains of Nicaragua along 84W south of 18N.

Who is likely to be affected?

Regardless of developments, widespread rainfall is expected across much of the Caribbean this week, AccuWeather said. Even in the unlikely event that a tropical depression or storm does not develop, life-threatening mudslides and flash floods can occur.

Meteorologists urge all residents to continue to monitor the tropics and always be prepared.

Weather warnings and warnings are issued in Florida

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When is Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

Countdown Clock: When does hurricane season end?

Interactive map: Hurricanes and tropical storms that passed near your city

What's next?

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