US elections Donald Trump: Donald Trump wins US elections? Famous pollster Nate Silver’s “gut forecast.”

Acclaimed pollster Nate Silver wrote in an editorial for The New York Times that his “gut feeling is” that former US President Donald Trump will win the November 5 election, while warning that polling data suggests he will Race could still go either way. “But don’t trust anyone, not even me,” he wrote in a New York Times editorial. His current model gives Trump, the Republican nominee, a 53.1 percent chance of a second term in the White House.

Nate Silver's model currently gives the Republican candidate a 53.1 percent chance of becoming the 47th President of the United States. “In an election where the seven battleground states are all within a percentage point or two, 50-50 is the only reliable forecast,” he wrote in his forecast.

“All right, I’ll tell you. My gut says Donald Trump. And I suspect that’s true for many concerned Democrats,” Nate wrote. “But I don’t think you should value anyone’s gut feeling, including mine. Instead, come to terms with the fact that a 50:50 prediction really means 50:50. And one should be open to the possibility that these predictions are wrong, and that could be the case both in the direction of Trump and Harris.”

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“It’s not that Trump voters are lying to pollsters; it’s because pollsters didn’t reach enough of them in 2016 and 2020,” he wrote. Nate Silver, who has followed the last five presidential elections, first gained notoriety for his accurate prediction of Barack Obama's victory over John McCain in 2008.

Silver pointed out that pollsters consistently underestimated Donald Trump's support due to the “non-response bias” of his base. “It’s not that Trump voters are lying to pollsters; “It’s because pollsters didn’t reach enough of them in 2016 and 2020,” he noted, suggesting the same could happen this year.READ ALSO: Is a recession imminent in the USA? The CEO of the world's largest alternative asset management firm says…

Shy voter theory

Nate Silver also explained the shy voter theory applied to Trump voters. The shy voter theory means that voters are shy about revealing that they are voting for Trump. Following the British voting trend, it is assumed that people do not want to admit to voting for conservative parties because of the social stigma associated with it. But Nate wrote that this is not true in the US and that Trump's election is less stigmatized than ever before, a TOI report said.

Hillary effect/Bradley effect

Nate Silver wrote that the assumption is that voters are not saying they would not vote for a black candidate, but rather that they are saying they are undecided. This is known as the Bradley Effect, named after former Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley, who underperformed in the polls in the 1982 election for governor of California.

However, this was not a problem for Barack Obama. But the only other time a woman was nominated as her party's candidate, undecided voters were heavily against her. So perhaps Ms. Harris should be concerned about a “Hillary effect,” Silver wrote.

“A surprise in polls that underestimates Harris is not necessarily less likely than one for Mr. Trump. On average, polls are off by three or four points. If Harris can do that, she will win both the popular vote and the Electoral College by the largest margin since Obama in 2008.”

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He also expressed concern that pollsters may be overcorrecting mistakes made in 2020, which he attributed in part to the COVID-19 pandemic. “Democrats were more likely to stay home and therefore had more time to answer calls. If pollsters correct what happens once in a century, they could overdo it this time,” he warned.

According to Forbes, Kamala Harris has a slight lead over former President Donald Trump, according to two new polls. However, most polls show the battle for the White House is dead, leaving the race completely unpredictable with less than two weeks to go until Election Day.