Why fewer people might bother to vote in the 2024 presidential election

CNN's Harry Enten outlined on Monday why voter turnout in the 2024 presidential election could be lower than in the 2020 election.

Although more than 40 million Because people have already voted eight days before Election Day, the final voter turnout could be lower than in the presidential election four years ago, which reached record highs. Enten, CNN's senior political data reporter, pointed to surveys of registered voters' feelings about voting to make her case.

“In 2020, at this point in time, 88 percent of registered voters said they were certain to vote,” Enten said. “Where are we today? It’s only 81 percent.”

He also pointed to a decline in registered voters who said they were “extremely motivated” to vote. Four years ago, 73 percent placed themselves in this category, compared to 65 percent today who said the same.

Enten also pointed to the decline in medium-term voter turnout between 2018 and 2022 – from 48.1 percent of the estimated voting population to 45.1 percent Pew Research Center– and the Decline in voter turnout in Washington's August primary. Voter turnout there fell to 40.91 percent out of 54.44 percent four years ago. Several factors regarding the state's second largest primary system make it one closely observed event as Predictor of what could happen in general elections.

Enten highlighted why voter turnout could decline in the upcoming presidential election New York Times/A Siena College poll shows that 74 percent of registered voters viewed the 2020 election as the most important election of their lives at this point, while only 65 percent currently say the same about the 2024 election.

“That's still a pretty impressive number, but it's a drop of almost 10 percent in the number of Americans or registered voters who say it's the most important election of their lives,” Enten said. “Despite the fact that there are all these politicians saying that, voters are a little less likely to agree with them.”

When asked the “million dollar question” of whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris would benefit more from a decline in voter turnout, Enten responded that it may not benefit either candidate.

“If you look at the broad spectrum of registered voters, you see Harris up by one point — well within the margin of error nationally,” he said. “If you look at likely voters, it’s still Harris [up] by one point.”

Although current polls do not show a clear advantage of lower voter turnout for either party, Enten summarized such a scenario in a post X with: “So that every vote counts more!”