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National Hurricane Center, AccuWeather monitors potential storm

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Could another storm be brewing in the western Caribbean next week?

AccuWeather weather forecasters say an extended low pressure area has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm. The latest warning from the National Hurricane Center gives the system a 40 percent chance of developing. Forecasters say a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week as it drifts north.

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The 2024 hurricane season isn't over yet, and storms in November (and even December) are quite possible.

There is also another area with little chance of development this weekend or early next week. According to AccuWeather, this is located east-southeast of Florida.

The next named storms of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be Patty and Rafael.

Here is the latest announcement from the NHC from Wednesday, October 30th at 5 p.m.:

Tropical Storm Patty? Is another storm or hurricane heading toward Florida?

The Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are still experiencing the same conditions that caused Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Low wind shear and very warm water lead to storms.

“If there is low wind shear, which we expect, I think a tropical depression or storm will form,” said AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno.

“If all the pieces come together, it could even become a hurricane,” said Alex DaSilva, senior hurricane expert at AccuWeather, in a phone interview Monday, Oct. 28.

The potential storm could go in two different directions, and it is still too early to tell which way it could hit.

But even within the two scenarios, there are different factors that could either impact Florida or the developing system could avoid Florida and the U.S. entirely. If it moves over Cuba or Hispaniola and enters the open Atlantic, it could hit Florida, DaSilva said.

“An area of ​​high pressure could potentially prevent a storm from moving out to sea, essentially forcing the storm to turn west toward Florida,” DaSilva said.

However, if the high pressure area weakens, the storm could turn north and potentially impact South Florida. Or the high-pressure system could push the developing storm westward toward Mexico or the Yucatan Peninsula, where it could dissipate.

If a storm threatens Florida, it would likely happen between Nov. 7 and Nov. 10, DaSilva said.

November brings tropical development closer to Florida, USA

Since 1851, three hurricanes have hit Florida in November.

While tropical waves typically appear off the African coast in the months leading up to the Atlantic hurricane season, giving people plenty of notice as they move across the Atlantic, this is not the case in the final month of the season.

“As November begins, the focus of tropical development shifts closer to the United States. Typically the focus is in the Caribbean and off the southeast coast towards the end of the season,” said DaSilva.

Another area to watch is southeast of Florida, USA

According to AccuWeather, this area currently has little prospect of development. There are two scenarios with this system:

  • It could be pushed out to sea with no impact on the United States
  • It could be absorbed by the current system in the Caribbean as it moves north past Cuba and Hispaniola.

A tropical depression could form in the Caribbean later this week

In a few days, an extensive low pressure area is expected to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.

Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as the system begins to drift north or northeast toward the central Caribbean Sea.

  • Chance of development within 48 hours: low, close to 0 percent.
  • Chance of education over 7 days: medium, 40 percent.

What else is there and how likely are they to intensify?

The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring three tropical waves:

  • Central Atlantic: A wave is moving along 52W south of 14N and moving west at just under 18 mph. A few showers are present near the wave axis.
  • Eastern Caribbean: A tropical wave lies over the eastern Caribbean. Its axis is along 68W, south of 16N, and is moving westward at 7 to 10 mph. A small cluster of showers and thunderstorms is located near the northern end of the wave axis.
  • Western Caribbean Sea: Another tropical wave is moving westward over the western Caribbean along 86W, south of 19N, at 7 to 10 mph. The wave extends southward across Honduras and Nicaragua. The northwest Caribbean will experience isolated moderate to isolated strong convection.

Who is likely to be affected?

Regardless of developments, widespread rainfall is expected across much of the Caribbean this week, AccuWeather said. Even in the unlikely event that a tropical depression or storm does not develop, life-threatening mudslides and flash floods can occur.

Residents from across the state of Florida to the Carolinas should keep a close eye on the current system in the Caribbean, DaSilva said.

Meteorologists urge all residents to continue to monitor the tropics and always be prepared.

Weather warnings and warnings are issued in Florida

Stay informed. Receive weather alerts via SMS

When is Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

Countdown Clock: When does hurricane season end?

Interactive map: Hurricanes and tropical storms that passed near your city

What's next?

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(This story has been updated to add new information.)

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