Partisanship shapes what Americans think about crime

Poll data released this week shows that Americans' views of the nation's crime rate are closer to reality. But it's less likely that we'll come to our senses than that partisanship will skew the data in a more precise direction than usual.

“Americans’ perceptions of crime in the U.S. have improved,” writes Gallup’s Megan Brenan, “with the percentage saying national crime has increased over the past year falling 13 points to 64%.” The number of respondents who described crime in the U.S. as “extreme” or “very serious” also fell 7 percentage points to 56 percent last year.

At first glance, this is good news because it increasingly reflects reality.

“Both the FBI and the BJS [Bureau of Justice Statistics] Data shows a dramatic decline in violent and property crime rates in the U.S. since the early 1990s, when crime rose across much of the country,” wrote John Gramlich of Pew Research in April 2024. “Using the FBI data, violent crime rates have since fallen by 49% between 1993 and 2022, while property crime fell by 59 percent over the same period. The BJS statistics were even more impressive, Gramlich found, writing that “violent and property crime rates in the U.S. have both fallen by 71% between 1993 and 2022.”

And yet people don't seem to believe the good news. “In 23 of 27 Gallup polls conducted since 1993, at least 60% of U.S. adults said there was more crime nationwide than the year before, even though crime rates had been declining for most of that period,” Gramlich added. According to a graph in the latest Gallup publication, the last year in which fewer than 60 percent of respondents (53 percent) said crime increased compared to the previous year was 2004.

While the latest Gallup poll continues this trend, with a clear majority of people still believing crime is increasing, it also suggests that the numbers are moving in the right direction. But unfortunately, it's unlikely that people's perceptions simply match reality.

As Gallup's Brenan notes, partisanship appears to be playing the biggest role in the decline. “October's poll shows partisan views of crime rates in the U.S. vary widely, with Democrats' far more positive perception driving the overall change since last year,” while 68 percent of independents and a whopping 90 percent of Republicans said that crime was up compared to last year, only 29 percent of Democrats said the same. (Overall crime fell in 2023 and appears to be trending toward doing the same in 2024.)

This would make sense as a pure expression of partisanship: Former President Donald Trump backed each of his three candidacies with claims that violent crime was out of control, so Republicans might be more likely to believe him.

But the Gallup trend shows that since 1993, when violent crime rates have steadily declined, Americans' perceptions have changed based on their party affiliation and who inhabits the White House: In 2004, during President George W. Bush's first term, It was 53 percent. Among those surveyed who thought crime had increased, 39 percent were Republicans but 67 percent were Democrats. (FBI statistics for this year showed that both violent and property crime each fell by just over 2 percent this year.)

On the other hand, Americans in general seem to be particularly bad at gauging crime trends: In 2014, 63 percent of all respondents told Gallup that crime was up over the previous year, including 57 percent of Democrats and 72 percent of Republicans. Meanwhile, 2014 proved to be the least violent year in decades.

But Americans' views on crime and criminal justice are extremely consequential, however capricious and ill-informed they may seem. Because even though the president likely has very little direct influence over the development of criminal justice in your local police department, voters have the power to elect prosecutors who have enormous power in deciding who gets jail time and how punitive their sentences are could. And there is evidence that voters' perceptions of crime influence what type of prosecutor they are likely to prefer.

“The increase in incarceration rates in the United States over the past 40 years is historically unprecedented and internationally unique,” ​​said a 2014 study. “Local elected officials—including state legislatures that enacted sentencing policies and, in many places, judges and prosecutors, who decided individual cases – were keenly aware of their constituents' concerns about crime. Under these conditions, punishment policy moved in a more punitive direction.” “

The prosecutors also recognize this. In a 2022 draft policy paper, Harvard doctoral student Chika Okafor noted that “being in one [district attorney] “The election year increases the total number of state prison admissions per capita and the total number of months sentenced per capita,” meaning prosecutors are more likely to seek prison sentences and longer sentences for offenders in election years.

And despite the fact that, with some exceptions, crime overall has been declining for three decades, America still has the highest incarceration rate of any country.

While public opinion polls may or may not seem particularly compelling as examples of political trends, the way people think about crime directly influences how they vote—and how the state treats those it arrests. As Okafor wrote, “Collective approaches to changing U.S. public opinion, rather than just technocratic policy approaches, can be instrumental in curbing mass incarceration.”