Here are Israel's post-election options on Iran's dangerous nuclear program

With its attack on Iran this week, Israel missed a perfect opportunity to cripple Iran's nuclear weapons program.

The actual targets chosen, air defense and missile production facilities, were entirely legitimate. Undoubtedly, both Iran's defensive and offensive capabilities suffered significant damage.

But it wasn't enough.

Under enormous pressure from the Biden administration, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government has failed to address Iran's greatest threat: the existential threat of a nuclear holocaust against Israel.

And the mullahs' nuclear ambitions – including threats that Tehran will transfer nuclear weapons to international terrorist groups – also pose a grave danger to the United States, Gulf Arab states and many others.

But this threat remains.

This mistake is likely to weigh heavily on the conscience of President Biden and his advisers.

Instead, they remain focused on Gaza, which represents merely one front in Iran's unfolding “Ring of Fire” strategy against the Jewish state. Biden has never understood Iran's problems, let alone addressed them strategically threat, not only to Israel but also to America, and our interest in keeping Iran away from weapons of mass destruction.

However, since the Hamas attack in 2023, the White House has focused on the symptoms of the danger rather than its cause: the Ayatollah regime in Tehran.

But after election day, Israel will have another chance.

Biden can no longer warn Israel against interfering in US politics by decisively attacking Iran's nuclear targets. Determining the winner may take a long time, but the votes themselves have already been cast.

Of course, Israel will not be spared from the vengeful post-election reprisals of a bitter, lame-duck president. Barack Obama proved this in late 2016 when he refused to veto a Security Council resolution on Israel's borders. But at least fear of electoral consequences will no longer be an obstacle in America.

However, Iran will still have a voice. It may also be waiting to take further action against Israel after November 5th.

Nobody knows who will win or when we will find out the result. Even the winner's politics are not obvious.

Kamala Harris is likely to be even less friendly toward Israel than Biden, and Donald Trump's stance is unclear. To those who think Trump will support Israel like he did in his first term, I simply say: think again. Trump's antipathy for Netanyahu is palpable, and with Trump constitutionally unable to win another term, the importance of US electoral politics to Trump will be much less than before. In 2019, Trump was a blink away from meeting with Javad Zarif, Iran's former foreign minister. He could easily do this in a second term, always looking for a deal, and any deal he thinks will make him look good.

In any case, the decision ultimately rests with Israel. After failing to act on Iran's nuclear weapons activities by November 5, it must decide whether to take action after that.

Some observers believe Israel should attack Iran's oil and gas infrastructure, which is extremely vulnerable. For example, the destruction of Iran's export facilities on Kharg Island could result in Iran losing almost all of its international revenue. This would have a dramatic impact on the domestic economy, but could also lead to the Iranian population, which is increasingly opposed to the mullahs' regime, feeling more sympathy for its oppressors again.

And Gulf Arab states have rightly warned that if Iran's facilities were damaged, Tehran would likely retaliate against its oil infrastructure. This mutually assured destruction of hydrocarbon exports is clearly something the Gulf Arabs want to avoid.

Of course, an attack on Iran's nuclear program would have no economic damage worldwide. And there would be no small amount of backlash from Iranian public opinion.

Indeed, abolishing the regime's long-standing program to acquire nuclear weapons could be a final blow to its credibility in Iran. The Ayatollahs have spent untold billions on nuclear and conventional warfare, but Israel's attack has shown it to be woefully inadequate. Losing the nuclear program could expose the mullahs to even more internal dissension and endanger the regime itself.

After Iran's missile and drone attacks in April, Israel bowed to Biden's pressure. In return, Israel was subjected to Iran's second attack in October.

Although Jerusalem retaliated vigorously, it was not enough.

Keep this in mind after November 5th, because Israel will have to live with this: Iran's third attempt could be nuclear.

John Bolton was President Donald Trump's national security adviser from 2018 to 2019 and US ambassador to the United Nations from 2005 to 2006.