Best NBA Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Jalen Green in Rockets vs. Mavericks)

Thursday's NBA action features multiple teams participating for the second night in a row (Memphis, San Antonio and the Los Angeles Clippers), meaning there is only one game – Dallas vs. Houston – where we have a full injury report on it have who will be playing tonight.

I just want to make a bet on Thursday as there is a lot of uncertainty around injuries in general.

Both Desmond Bane and Marcus Smart were injured in the Grizzlies' loss to the Brooklyn Nets on Wednesday, and key players like Lauri Markkanen and Bradley Beal are listed as questionable in a few other games, which could really impact the outcome of these matchups.

As always, there will be an opportunity to place a bet after this column is published, but there is one bet I love between Houston and Dallas. So, let's break it down.

Find Peter Deweys NBA betting record here (Futures included). You can also follow my daily pieces on BetStamp here.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jalen Green OVER 23.5 points (-120) – 0.5 units

Houston Rockets guard Jalen Green is off to a fast start in the 2024-25 season, averaging 28.8 points per game while shooting 43.2 percent from the field and 41.3 percent from distance.

Houston's decision to pay Green this offseason seems like a good move at the moment, as he has scored at least 22 points in all four of the Rockets' games and dominated the offense in a win over the Spurs (36 points) in their last game .

Green's fielding percentage this season is 31.4 – a career high – and he has taken at least 21 shots in every game this season. Additionally, Green averages six free throw attempts per game.

I think this is a favorable matchup for him after Dallas gave up 24 points – 37 total – to Anthony Edwards in the first quarter on Tuesday night. Green's use is crucial as he has shot well enough that he should get over this line in 20+ shots.

He's scored 23.5 points in three of his four games, and I expect this matchup to be relatively close – Houston is a 6.5-point underdog – which should help keep Green from heading in the wrong direction device.

Since the Mavericks moved on from Derrick Jones Jr. in the offseason, they don't have an elite guard defenseman in their starting lineup. Green may get a contract from PJ Washington, but it's also possible he starts against Kyrie Irving or Klay Thompson. If that's the case, I love this number for Green on Thursday.

Bonus: Luka Doncic 3-point prop

I'm keeping an eye on Luka Doncic in the market for 3-point props – but at this point I haven't placed a bet on his prop as the odds of him hitting over 2.5 3-pointers (-175) are in my favor is a bit high.

Depending on how this prop moves by game time, this might be something I add to my card. Doncic has made at least eight 3-pointers in every game this season, but he has shot just 2 of 17 from distance in his last two games.

If Doncic's value stays at 2.5, there's a chance I'll bet OVER based on volume, but given his difficulty, it could be a good place if that -175 ends up being heavily bet and the oddsmakers push the line to 3, 5 move Take the UNDER.

Stay tuned to my Betstamp (@peter2dewey) for real-time updates on the bets I place.

Odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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