UFC Edmonton main card odds, breakdowns and predictions

This weekend (Sat. November 2, 2024), the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) travels to Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada for UFC Edmonton. Free cards on the go are simply more fun. The two best fights on this card feature top-five contenders and former champions, and there isn't too much of a drop in quality leading up to it. “The Black Beast” has never failed to bring a card to life (okay, ONCE vs Francis Ngannou), and there are even solid scrappers like Charles Jourdain And Jack Shore on the submap.

UFC Edmonton is not a bad card! Let's take a look at all the co-main card fights leading up to the main event:

Heavyweight: Derrick Lewis (+150) vs. Jhonata Diniz (-180)

Best win for Lewis? Francis Ngannou For Diniz? Karl Williams
Current series: Lewis won his last fight while Diniz is 2-0 inside the Octagon
X factor: Lewis is at the end of his career
How these two fit together: One way or another, violence feels guaranteed.

Lewis is the most prolific knockout artist in UFC history and he achieves his opponent's unconsciousness in three ways. He either destroys them with a huge haymaker, a wild jump shot, or by finding his way into top position and delivering killer ground strikes.

Diniz, on the other hand, is an accomplished kickboxer who is still fairly new to the MMA field. Diniz has only been a professional in the cage since 2022 and his grappling defense is still developing, but he is sober and hard-working on his feet.

There are two obvious paths to this fight. On the one hand, we've all seen Lewis get stuck from a distance and get kicked for long periods of time. It's not fun to watch, and it seems even less fun to experience. Conversely, Lewis punches are incredibly painful and in recent years he has become more active with his offensive takedowns.

I'm actually leaning towards the latter because Diniz is so inexperienced in MMA. It's one thing to choose Austen Lane and Karl Williams, but Lewis has been in the cage of the best for a decade. It's a huge step forward in the competition, and Lewis only needs a single takedown to crush Diniz into dust.

“The Black Beast” isn’t dead yet.

Prediction: Lewis via knockout

Light heavyweight: Caio Machado (-155) vs. Brendan Ribeiro (+130)

Best win for Machado? Kevin Szaflarski For Ribeiro? Bruno Lopes
Current series: Both are 0-2 in the UFC
X factor: Machado moves down from heavyweight
How these two fit together: What is this slop doing on the main card?

Machado didn't appear to be particularly big in the heavyweight division, but perhaps this weight loss will help him. The Canadian-born Brazilian is a solid kicker and likes to use crisp combinations to win the clinch and train knees. Unfortunately, he's pretty beatable despite having a solid chin. Ribeiro is also a striker. He actually has more reach than the former heavyweight and uses it well with a stiff jab, but he's not the best in combination.

I don't have particularly strong feelings about this fight. Both athletes are uninspiring grapplers with a pretty dangerous stance, despite some obvious flaws. We'll probably get an equal kickboxing fight. Between the two, I rate Ribeiro's overall potential slightly higher. He is the more serious knockout candidate and has faced more competition throughout his career.

I think that's enough to support him here.

Prediction: Ribeiro by decision

Middleweight: Marc-André Barriault (-198) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+164)

Best win for Barriault? Eryk Anders For Stoltzfus? Punahele Soriano
Current series: Barriault has lost two in a row, while Stoltzfus came up short last time out
X factor: Stoltzfus is not the longest-lasting middleweight
How these two fit together: This should be a tough 185 pound contest.

Barriault is a gamer. “Powerbar” features quality kickboxing, solid defensive wrestling and a deep gas tank. He has reasonable strength but better durability, meaning his fights often turn into 15-minute slugfests. Stoltzfus, on the other hand, suffers from being an all-rounder. His jiu-jitsu is probably his greatest asset, but his wrestling and kickboxing are just decent, meaning that despite having some technical skills throughout, he can't always control where the fight takes place.

In general, things have been looking better for Stoltzfus lately. He has more confidence in his stand-up and that leads to better takedown entries. However, I'm still not sure if it's enough. Barriault remains the better striker by far, and his defensive struggles are historically pretty solid.

Stoltzfus getting stuck on his feet and overexerting himself seems to be the most likely outcome.

Prediction: Barriault by decision

Welterweight: Mike Malott (-265) vs. Trevin Giles (+215)

Best win for Malott? Mickey Gall For Giles? Roman Dolidze
Current series: Malott came up short last time out, while Giles suffered two defeats in a row
X factor: How does Malott react to a difficult loss?
How these two fit together: This should be a high level scrap.

Malott comes in after a devastating defeat Neil Magny in which he dominated the fight for about 13 minutes until a last-second rally from the long-time veteran stopped him. Despite the unfortunate ending, he showcased his key skills: excellent range kickboxing, a sophisticated clinch wrestling approach and dangerous jiu-jitsu.

Giles began his career as a wrestler but has mostly developed into a boxer. Giles has a smart, sharp punch that can control exchanges well, although he also has a bad habit of winning fights until he's suddenly put on the canvas by a big opponent.

It feels like a great fightback for Malott. Both men are quite technically skilled and fight with intelligence, but “Proper” is a much deadlier fighter. He is far more likely to hurt his opponent and make big swings. He's also a much better kicker, which will make it difficult for Giles to really fight behind his shot.

At some point Malott will hurt Giles on the lead or on the counterattack. The question is whether he will follow up with more punches or use the sophisticated guillotine stranglehold…

Prediction: Malott via assist

LIVE! Stream UFC Edmonton on ESPN+

FLYWEIGHT MANIA! The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to its APEX venue in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, October 19, 2024, with an exciting middleweight main event between two up-and-coming 13th-ranked contenders Anthony Hernández Ranking list takes on number 14 Michel Pereira. In addition, exciting outstanding performances in the bantamweight division Rob font (No. 10) vs. Kyler Phillips (No. 11) pairs her with the tough co-headliner of UFC Vegas 99.

Don't miss a single second of the breathtaking action!

Remember that MMAmania.com delivers LIVE round-by-round and blow-by-blow coverage of the entire area UFC Edmonton fight card Right Herestarting with that ESPN+ Online preliminary round games, which are scheduled to start at 4 p.m. ETbefore the start time of the main map 7pm ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Edmonton: “Moreno vs. Albazi” news and notes, be sure to check out our comprehensive event archive Here.

UFC Edmonton main card odds, breakdowns and predictions | X factor