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Weather forecast for Election Day 2024: Will it rain?

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Election Day is just around the corner and with it, storms and rain showers that could make it a little more difficult to vote in some parts of the country.

Forecasters expect most of the country to experience mild weather on Tuesday, November 5, but some locations will experience thunderstorms, persistent rain or even snow. This also includes a rain forecast in the important swing states of Wisconsin and Michigan.

While severe weather could impact voter turnout, forecasters say the outlook for Tuesday isn't bad enough to cause major problems. And in an election year with a tough presidential race, most voters won't be dissuaded, said Paul Pastelok, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather.

“People should be able to get there without major weather disruptions,” Pastelok told USA TODAY.

It's raining in some swing states

Wisconsin and Michigan expect rain on Election Day. They are two of seven swing states with close poll results between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

Pastelok said rain in Wisconsin is expected mostly in the morning and will dry out later in the day, but Michigan could see rain at any time of day.

Additionally, voters in northern Iowa and southeastern Minnesota have a better chance of staying dry if they go to the polls later in the day after early rain subsides.

Thunderstorms in central parts of the country

Showers and thunderstorms are forecast for Tuesday from southeast Texas, including Houston, to the lower Mississippi Valley, including parts of Arkansas and Mississippi, Pastelok said.

Sudden torrential rains, localized flash floods and lightning strikes pose risks to voters waiting in line at high-traffic polling locations, according to AccuWeather.

According to AccuWeather, there is a risk for severe thunderstorms beginning this weekend, potentially extending through Election Day in the corridor from eastern Texas and Louisiana through southern Illinois and Indiana to western Ohio and southern Michigan.

Cool weather, gusty winds and possible snow in the northwest

In the northwest and northern Rocky Mountains, temperatures could become cold enough that snow could fall, even at mid-elevation, in parts of Oregon, Washington, Idaho, northeastern Nevada, northern Utah and western Wyoming.

In those states, windy conditions may also require wearing hats and gloves while waiting to vote, Pastelok said.

Overall, a mild election day in the USA

The rest of the country is expected to be clear and dry on Tuesday, Pastelok said.

On the East Coast, cities like Washington, DC, Raleigh and New York will be relatively warm. Temperatures should be in the low to mid 70s in the Mid-Atlantic region and in the 80s in the Southeast.

And the western Central Plains to the Southwest should be dry with no frost, he said.

Does the weather affect elections?

Researchers say bad weather has a marginal impact on voter turnout, which could be far more significant in a very close race. That's because people who aren't sure whether they want to vote are less likely to go out when the weather is bad.

Every inch of precipitation can reduce in-person turnout by up to 0.95 points on the same day, researchers found in a 2023 analysis of turnout and precipitation studies. However, another study this year found that the negative effects of rain can be somewhat mitigated by alternative voting methods such as absentee voting and early voting.

“The impact of weather on the election is no longer as significant and influential as it once was because so many people are now voting early in person or by mail,” said Evan Myers, senior vice president at AccuWeather and an election weather expert. “A majority of people still vote on election day, but there are many more people who vote early.”

Early voting update: Women outperform men in early voting, bolstering the Harris campaign's optimism

Since it's a presidential election year, Pastelok said light rain won't affect voter turnout too much. In years when there are no presidential elections, the temptation to stay home may be greater.

Although the weather appears to be clear on Election Day in recently disaster-stricken areas such as western North Carolina, some common polling places were wiped out by Hurricane Helene, and in other cases voting materials may have been destroyed, Myers said.

After hurricanes Helene and Milton, federal judges in Florida and Georgia also rejected requests from civil rights groups to extend voter registration deadlines. The groups said people forced to evacuate or displaced by the hurricanes had difficulty registering in a timely manner.

“The impact of the extreme weather that occurred weeks ago will likely have a greater impact on voting than the actual weather on Election Day,” Myers said.

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