Predicting the Army vs. Air Force Score by an Expert Football Model

The next leg of the Commander-in-Chief Trophy series begins Saturday when undefeated playoff hopeful No. 21 Army takes on Air Force. Let's look at the latest predictions for the game, which come from an expert model that projects results and picks winners.

One of the few undefeated teams in college football, Army sits atop the AAC standings and is considered a playoff contender as we head into crucial November football.

Air Force is going in the opposite direction and is 1-6 overall this season, winless in Mountain West play and ranks second-worst nationally in passing and scoring performance.

What do the analytical models suggest as the Black Knights and Hawks clash in this battle between the military academies?

To do this, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview the Army vs. Air Force comparison in this Week 10 college football game.

As expected, the models are more on the side of the Black Knights than the Falcons.

SP+ predicts the Army will beat the Air Force by one expected score 41 to 10 and will win the game by one expected margin of 30.2 points included.

The model gives the Black Knights an almost perfect look 97 percent chance of complete victory.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustained and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 239-221-5 against the spread with a win rate of 51.9 after being 28-27-1 (50.9%) last weekend.

Army is one 21.5 point favorite vs. Air Force, according to updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total below 42.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it set the moneyline odds for Army at -4000 and for the Air Force +1400 win directly.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should…

If you do, you'll find yourself on the same page as most bettors, who give the Black Knights a significant edge over the Falcons, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Army is coming 63 percent of bets to win the game and cover the generous points spread to remain undefeated.

The other one 37 percent of bets assume that Air Force will either win outright in an upset or, more likely, keep the game under 3 touchdowns in a loss.

Army was 26.8 points better than its competition overall this season on average, while Air Force was 16.7 points worse than his opponents in 2024.

Over the last three games, Army's average lead is at 31 points better than its opponents, while the Falcons' defeat remained the same.

Army played a little closer at home, but still had a big lead on average 24.7 points better than his opponents at West Point.

On the road, Air Force has been average this season 18.3 points worse than the competition.

Most other analytical models also favor the Black Knights over the Falcons in this matchup.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

The army is expected to win the game in overpowering 94.8 percent the computer's latest simulations of the matchup.

That leaves the Air Force as the presumptive winner in the remaining race 5.2 percent by Sims.

And the models also predict a comfortable lead for the Black Knights to win.

Army is expected to be 25.8 points better as Air Force on the same field in the game's latest projected simulations in the model's latest forecast.

More… Army vs. Air Force Prediction: What the Analyzes Say

Army is first among AAC teams with one 22.1 percent chance according to FPI metrics to qualify for the College Football Playoff.

This model gives the Black Knights an overall win prediction of 10.6 games this season.

The index assumes the Air Force will win 2 games in '24, according to the latest calculations.

FPI estimates the Falcons are 16 points worse than an average opponent on a neutral field and has a 0 percent chance to play postseason football.

When: Sat, November 2nd
Time: 12pm Eastern
TV: CBS Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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