November 2024 Iowa Poll: Trump 53%, Harris 43%

Trump leads the Hawkeye State among both men and women

A new Emerson College Polling/RealClearDefense poll of likely Iowa voters found that 53% support former President Donald Trump and 43% support Vice President Kamala Harris for president in 2024. Three percent are undecided and 1% plan to vote for a third party. Taking support from undecided voters into account, overall support for Trump rises to 54% and for Harris to 45%.

“Both female and male voters in Iowa support Trump, women by a five percentage point margin, 51% to 46%, and men by a significant 17 percentage point margin, 56% to 39%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College survey said. “Trump is also ahead among independents, 53% to 36%.”

Harris' strength in Iowa is among voters under 30, who give her a 54% lead over Trump, while Trump leads all other age groups over 30, with approval ratings ranging from 6 to 23 percentage points. Harris also leads among voters with postgraduate degrees, 52% to 45%.

Voters who said they had already voted voted for Trump 56% to 44%, while voters who were still very likely to vote voted for Trump 53% to 42%.

The latest Emerson Iowa general election poll in October 2023 showed Trump with the same 10-point lead over President Joe Biden, 44% to 34%.

President Biden has a 34% job approval rating and a 56% disapproval rating among likely Iowa voters.

methodology

The Emerson College Polling Iowa survey was conducted November 1-2, 2024. The sample of likely voters, n=800, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll's margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.4 percentage points. Datasets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on modeling of likely voters in 2024. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, voter surveys, and voter registration data.

It is important to keep in mind that subsets based on demographic characteristics such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity will have higher credibility intervals as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the survey's rating range, and at a 95% confidence interval, 1 in 20 times a survey will fall outside the rating range.

Data were collected by contacting landlines via Interactive Voice Response (Aristotle's Telephone List) and an online voter panel provided by CINT.

For all questions asked in this survey, including the exact wording, as well as full results, demographics, and crosstabs, see Full Results. This survey was sponsored by RealClearDefense.

FFULL RESULTS