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Here's who's ahead in the key battlegrounds of the 2024 election

Topline

The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is virtually undecided, with recent polls showing Harris leading the three so-called “blue wall” states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan – even though polling averages do not favor a candidate show leads by more than 2.5 points in each of the seven battlegrounds.

Important facts

According to a new HarrisX/Forbes poll Thursday, Harris has a 49% to 48% lead among voters in all seven battleground states, a statistical tie — but 14% of swing state voters are still weighing their options, meaning , that there is still a lot of scope for the race for change.

north Carolina: Harris leads 48% to 47% (margin of error 4.5 points) in a CNN/SSRS poll released Thursday, an outlier among several other polls this week showing Trump ahead, including a Fox News poll , which shows him ahead 49% to 47% (or 50–49% without a third party), while he was at 50–48% in polls released last week by the Cooperative Election Study, Marist and Emerson College is at the top. The FiveThirtyEight average shows Trump with a lead of 1.3 points.

Georgia: Trump has a lead of 48% to 47% (margin of error 4.7) in Thursday's CNN/SSRS poll, but is 51% to 46% and 49.9% to in the CES poll (2,663 respondents). 48.4% significantly higher. in last week's Bloomberg poll, although a Marist poll had them at 49% (margin of error 3.9), and a Washington Post poll (margin of error 4.5) had Harris leading 51% to 47 % is ahead. In the FiveThirtyEight poll average, Trump is ahead by 1.6 points.

Pennsylvania: It couldn't be closer – Harris is ahead 50-48% in a Marist poll and 48-47% in a Washington Post poll, both out Friday, Fox News and CNN have the candidates at 48% . The SSRS polls released Wednesday put him at 49% to 49% in the CBS/YouGov poll, while Trump was up 47% to 46% in a Quinnipiac poll on Wednesday and Harris was ahead in a major Cooperative Election Study poll from 49% to 48% (3,685 respondents). Monmouth found that Trump was up 47% to 46% among all registered voters, but Harris was leading 48% to 47% among voters who voted in most elections. Overall, Trump leads Harris by 0.4 points in the FiveThirtyEight polling average.

Michigan: Harris is up three points, 51%-48%, in the Marist poll, while Trump has a rare lead in a Washington Post poll released Thursday that has him up 47%-45%, although three other polls this week show Harris with a 47%-45% advantage, including the Fox News poll that had her up 48%-46% (although there is a 49% tie with no third party) , 51% to 46% in the CES survey (2,336 respondents) and 48% to 43%. in the CNN/SSRS poll — while Trump leads 49% to 48% (margin of error 3 points) in an Emerson poll released Tuesday. Harris is up 1.1 points in Michigan according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average.

Wisconsin: Harris leads Trump 50-48% in the Marist poll and 50-47% in the CES poll (1,542 respondents), 51-45% in the CNN/SSRS poll and 51-45% in a Marquette poll 50-49% poll, while Trump is up 49% to 48% in an Emerson poll and the two candidates are at 48% in a Quinnipiac poll. Harris is up 0.7 points on the FiveThirtyEight average.

Nevada: Harris leads Trump 48% to 47% in an Emerson poll released Friday (margin of error 3.6 points) and 51% to 47% (933 respondents) in the CES poll, while Trump leads in a CNN/Die SSRS poll released on Tuesday (margin of error 4.6 points) and Harris is leading by 48.8% to 48.3% (margin of error 5) in an Oct. 23 Bloomberg poll. Harris is up 0.1 points in the FiveThirtyEight polling average.

Arizona: Trump is up 51% to 47% in the CES poll (2,066 respondents), and is ahead 50% to 49% (margin of error 3.7) in a Marist poll released Oct. 24 and 49 in a Washington Post poll % to 46% -Schar School poll (margin of error 5), while Harris is leading 48% to 47% in a CNN/SSRS poll this week (margin of error 4.4). Trump is up 2.3 points in the FiveThirtyEight poll average.

Big number

1.2 points. That's Harris' lead in the FiveThirtyEight national polling average.

Important background

Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 due to an intraparty revolt following his debate performance – dramatically changing the Democrats' fortunes. Before the postponement, polls consistently showed Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, although Biden won six of seven (excluding North Carolina) in the 2020 election.

Further reading

Trump vs. Harris polls 2024: Harris remains ahead in four new polls (Forbes)

Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris narrowly leads in one of her key states (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris leads by less than one point in poll averages (Forbes)

North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Almost tied in new 7th swing state (Forbes)

Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Most polls show Trump ahead in crucial swing state (Forbes)

Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris has narrow lead – but struggles with Latino voters (Forbes)

Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Polls Show Trump Has Slight Advantage (Forbes)

Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Trump has advantage in latest swing state poll (Forbes)