Fantasy Football Week 9 Lineup Decisions: Kirk Cousins could benefit from the Cowboys’ lack of pressure, more

Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn’t be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you’ve got the right guys in — and the wrong guys out.

It’s too early to be absolutely sure which matchups will be easy and which ones will be tough, but we can take some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records, and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don’t know. This should lead to better decisions being made.

We’ll go through every game and highlight the players who aren’t obvious starts and sits (because you don’t need to be told to start Derrick Henry). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.

More Week 9 content:

C.J. Stroud has struggled with pass rush pressure all year, but it’s really shown up in his past two games: 38.5% completion rate, 3.6 yards per attempt, and a massive 30.8% off-target rate. The O-line is a major issue — in those past two against the Packers and Colts, they’ve let up a pressure on 48.5% of Stroud’s dropbacks. That’s a ton! The Jets have dialed up more blitzes and played more man coverage since firing Robert Saleh, so that should be expected in this game, especially with the Texans receiving corps without its top two wide receivers and on a short week. The hunch is that Stroud will focus on getting the ball out quickly, which might mean lean numbers again since the guy who would normally benefit — Stefon Diggs — is out for the game. It doesn’t help that Tank Dell hasn’t been as explosive as he was as a rookie (just one target of more than 24 Air Yards).

Through two weeks, Adams has had two fewer targets, three fewer catches, and 90 fewer yards than Garrett Wilson, and that’s on the same exact number of routes run. Adams isn’t winning his routes with speed or quickness as much as with power and footwork. He’s also thin on explosive plays (especially compared to Wilson) because he’s running closer to the line of scrimmage with the Jets than he was with the Raiders. He has also played in the slot on 46.2% of the snaps, which is rare for him. I’d argue there have been at least three plays I’ve seen where Adams should have scored, including a red-zone slant pass that was knocked away at the last second by Christian Gonzalez. I suspect the Texans won’t assign Derek Stingley to Adams consistently, and slot corner Jalen Pitre has allowed two touchdowns in his past three games. While it’s fair to lower expectations for Adams, he should still see a decent dose of targets with a chance to score. 

OBVIOUS STARTS: Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Garrett Wilson (No. 2 WR)

STARTS: Davante Adams (low-end No. 2 PPR WR), Jets DST, Texans DST

FLEX: Tank Dell

SITS: Aaron Rodgers, C.J. Stroud, Braelon Allen, Mike Williams, Dalton Schultz (desperation PPR TE), Tyler Conklin

I think there’s some shootout potential to this game because neither defense is particularly good. Atlanta has reliably been the league’s zone-heaviest team this season and is dead last with six sacks. It should give Dak Prescott the platform to play efficient football, but maybe not with dominant stats. Without Micah Parsons, Dallas’ defense has morphed into a more blitz-heavy, man-to-man coverage squad, and it hasn’t led to good results. I can’t say their pass rush is any better than Tampa Bay’s without Parsons, and Tampa Bay couldn’t get to Cousins in the first half last week, giving him time to locate downfield targets. Cousins’ average throw depth explodes from 3.7 yards to 9.4 yards when he has at least 2.5 seconds to pass, though six of his seven interceptions this year have come when he’s had time, too. Cousins could finally have a big game against a team other than the Bucs. And, the lack of pressure for Cousins could keep Darnell Mooney’s upside in play, making him a low-end No. 2/high-end No. 3 receiver.

A quick word on Rico Dowdle: His past three games have seen him either catch a touchdown or pick up a bunch of targets (5-30-0 receiving against the Steelers. It’s important to note that the Cowboys saw the highest rate of zone coverage defense against them in those three games, and that kind of defense does lend itself to running backs doing well in the passing game. The Falcons, as you just read, have been the league’s heaviest zone-coverage defense. It should open up some opportunities for Dowdle.  

OBVIOUS STARTS: Bijan Robinson, CeeDee Lamb, Drake London (top-15 PPR WR),

STARTS: Kirk Cousins (top-12 QB), Darnell Mooney (low-end No. 2 WR), Kyle Pitts, Jake Ferguson (low-end starting TE)

FLEX: Rico Dowdle

SITS: Dak Prescott (borderline starter), Jalen Tolbert (bye-week WR), Tyler Allgeier (desperation bye-week RB), Cowboys DST, Falcons DST

Even in what wound up being two of the easiest matchups he’ll have all year, Bo Nix struggled against man-to-man coverage, completing 43% of his throws for 4.1 yards per attempt and zero touchdowns. That’s the coverage the Ravens are expected to play in, even with a depleted D-line and secondary. That’s discouraging for Nix, but the combination of his rushing prowess and the likelihood that he will have to throw more than the 31.5 attempts he averaged in his past two games should give him the potential for at least a decent Fantasy outing. At least six Fantasy points have come from his rushing in each of his past four, and Nix has scored a minimum of 24 Fantasy points in three of those four. The Ravens have let up 25-plus Fantasy points to each of the past four quarterbacks they’ve faced, including Jameis Winston last week (and Winston still would have gone over 20 Fantasy points if Kyle Hamilton had caught the ball on Winston’s second-to-last pass).

OBVIOUS STARTS: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry

STARTS: Bo Nix (low-end starter), Zay Flowers (No. 2 WR), Mark Andrews (low-end starter)

FLEX: Courtland Sutton, Javonte Williams (PPR)

SITS: Diontae Johnson (low-end PPR flex), Lil’Jordan Humphrey (desperation bye-week WR), Rashod Bateman, Jaleel McLaughlin, Isaiah Likely, Broncos DST, Ravens DST

The idea that Amari Cooper would walk right into Buffalo and dominate targets appears to be out the window. Make no mistake, he’ll run more routes than his 51.4% rate through two games suggests, but so far, he hasn’t looked anywhere near as explosive as he did in Cleveland — or as explosive as Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir look, either. They’ve scored at least 13.5 PPR points in each of the Bills’ two games since acquiring Cooper, with Coleman especially looking more like a No. 1 receiver. Once comfortable, Cooper should be good, but he won’t be a solo act, given how the others have been playing. The Dolphins entered last week ranked as allowing the fewest PPR points per game to wide receivers, especially those that line up outside. They were taken apart by Marvin Harrison Jr. last week, almost exclusively on deeper routes. Over the past two weeks, Coleman has a deeper average target depth (12.7 yards) than Cooper (9.0) and Shakir (1.06 … yes, really). Perhaps Coleman is the best option among the Bills WRs until Cooper starts to play more snaps.

The Bills have won five straight against Miami (including the playoffs), but they’ve barely blitzed them in those games. Only once did Buffalo send the blitz more than 22% of the Dolphins’ dropbacks. This may have to do more with the Bills not wanting to waste pass-rush resources because Tua Tagovailoa frequently gets the ball out quickly. The result hasn’t been great for Miami’s passing game: one game out of the four with more than one passing touchdown and one game with more than 250 yards. Tagovailoa has just one career game out of eight against the Bills with multiple passing touchdowns. Given how the Bills pass defense has played lately, I’d lower expectations for Miami’s quarterback and receivers.

OBVIOUS STARTS: Josh Allen, De’Von Achane

STARTS: James Cook, Keon Coleman (low-end No. 2 Fantasy WR), Tyreek Hill (No. 2 WR), Bills DST

FLEX: Khalil Shakir (PPR), Amari Cooper, Raheem Mostert (non-PPR)

SITS: Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle (low-end flex; bye-week WR), Jonnu Smith (bye-week TE), Ray Davis, Curtis Samuel, Dolphins DST

Last week, the Panthers had David Moore lead their receivers in route rate (85.4%), followed by Jalen Coker (80.5%) and first-round rookie Xavier Legette (63.4%). Moore’s a veteran whose experience is probably valued by the coaching staff, but Legette and Coker could be viewed as the Panthers’ discount version of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Legette is faster than Coker; Coker might be viewed as quicker than Legette and potentially a better route-runner. And while Coker manned the slot more than Legette last week, he has the size and catch radius to box out defenders and reel in off-target throws. Legette also has good contested-catch abilities and size, but what he has in explosiveness he lacks in hands. The duo bears watching, particularly against a Saints secondary down two starters, including top cornerback Marshon Lattimore.

OBVIOUS STARTS: Alvin Kamara

STARTS: Chuba Hubbard, Chris Olave (top-12 WR), Saints DST

SITS: Derek Carr, Bryce Young, Xavier Legette (low-end flex), Jalen Coker (stash), Taysom Hill (bye-week TE), Mason Tipton, Miles Sanders, Ja’Tavion Sanders, Panthers DST

An opposing running back has landed at least 12 PPR points in every game the Raiders have played this year. All but one had at least 17 touches. Chase Brown has remained the Bengals’ running downs back through about the last four weeks and should keep the role in this favorable matchup. Expect an increase in touches for him, with the Bengals presumably playing with a lead. Just don’t expect Brown to hog the ball — Joe Burrow will get his. The only two quarterbacks in the Raiders’ past six games to not get at least 21 Fantasy points were Matthew Stafford (whose team ran the ball so well that he didn’t need to throw to his then-depleted receiving corps) and Deshaun Watson (who stunk).

OBVIOUS STARTS: Ja’Marr Chase

STARTS: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown (No. 2 RB), Jakobi Meyers (No. 2 WR in PPR), Brock Bowers, Mike Gesicki (low-end starter), Bengals DST

SITS: Gardner Minshew, Alexander Mattison (bye-week RB), Zack Moss (bye-week PPR RB), Jermaine Burton (stash), Andrei Iosivas, Raiders DST

Cedric Tillman has been terrific as the Browns’ new outside receiver, averaging 10.5 targets per game in his past two and earning a target at a 24.4% rate per route run. I would expect the volume to remain relatively high as long as the Browns coaching staff embraces Jameis Winston. An added bonus: current Cleveland playcaller Ken Dorsey was once fired from Buffalo from calling too many pass plays, so his tendency might be to stick with Winston airing it out. Only three quarterbacks have exceeded 20 Fantasy points against the Chargers this year, but two came in Weeks 6 (Bo Nix) and 7 (Kyler Murray). Before then, the toughest quarterbacks they faced were Patrick Mahomes and … I guess, Justin Fields. I can’t say the Chargers pass defense is great or not because they haven’t been tested, but I can tell you they reliably play zone coverage (third-highest rate of any team this year) and have struggled to rush the passer. Both are great developments for Winston and Tillman.

STARTS: J.K. Dobbins, Ladd McConkey (low-end No. 2 PPR WR; No. 3 in non-PPR), David Njoku, Browns DST, Chargers DST (low-end option but don’t drop them)

FLEX: Cedric Tillman, Elijah Moore (PPR), Nick Chubb (non-PPR)

SITS: Jameis Winston (borderline starter), Justin Herbert, Jerry Jeudy, Will Dissly (streaming TE)

You may not remember, but Jayden Daniels was stymied by the Giants back in Week 2, failing to score a touchdown but leading the Commanders on seven drives (each of eight or more plays) that ended with a field goal. New York played plenty of zone coverage to deter against the big play and sacked Daniels five times. They also got ripped by Brian Robinson Jr. for 133 yards on 17 carries, and unfortunately for them, that part of their defense remains a soft spot. The Giants allow the largest rushing average to running backs (5.4 yards per carry) and are also third-worst in rate of 10-plus yard runs allowed (15.6%). With the Commanders defense playing well and Daniels coming off a high-volume week, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Robinson handle a large workload and dominate with it.

OBVIOUS STARTS: Malik Nabers, Terry McLaurin

STARTS: Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson, Devin Singletary (low-end No. 2 RB), Zach Ertz (PPR), Commanders DST

FLEX: Darius Slayton

SITS: Daniel Jones, Austin Ekeler, Wan’Dale Robinson (bye-week PPR WR), Theo Johnson, Giants DST

Yes, we’ve dealt with Calvin Ridley’s inconsistency for years. And yes, he did put up huge numbers against one of the easiest matchups in the Lions last week. But Ridley’s usage shifted a little bit closer to the line of scrimmage, and he also, obviously, was a focal point of the offense with 15 targets. Ridley made a bunch of tough catches with defenders in close proximity, something that will keep earning him opportunities. But it should be noted that the Titans will be able to run the ball more effectively this week than last, and it could impact Ridley’s target volume. Regardless, this is the same pass defense that gave up big numbers (16-plus PPR points) to fellow speedsters Garrett Wilson, Brian Thomas Jr., Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, all in the past three weeks. Despite his up-and-down nature, I would not mind using Ridley as a flex this week.

STARTS: Tony Pollard (No. 2 RB), Hunter Henry (low-end starter)

FLEX: Calvin Ridley, Rhamondre Stevenson (low-end No. 2 RB)

SITS: Jacoby Brissett, Mason Rudolph, Demario Douglas (desperation PPR WR), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (desperation non-PPR WR), Tyjae Spears (bye-week PPR RB), Antonio Gibson, Chig Okonkwo, Titans DST, Patriots DST

The only two teams whose RBs Chicago has held to under 4.8 yards per rush are the Texans in Week 2 (Joe Mixon got hurt) and the Jaguars in Week 6 (Travis Etienne got hurt, Tank Bigsby didn’t get many touches). That should get the Cardinals’ attention and give them a reason to load up on the run with James Conner. If they’re successful, then Caleb Williams will have to throw more than the Bears might prefer. His first game post-bye was absolutely brutal — he completed 4 of 13 passes for 36 yards through three quarters before finally going 6 of 11 for 95 yards in the fourth quarter. Williams’ three best games were versus awful and/or depleted defenses (Jaguars, Panthers, Colts). Arizona deserves credit for being surprisingly decent, thanks to some unheralded play by rusher Dante Stills and slot corner Garrett Williams, among others.

STARTS: Kyler Murray, D’Andre Swift, James Conner, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride, Bears DST (low-end option)

FLEX: D.J. Moore (borderline starter)

SITS: Caleb Williams, Keenan Allen (bye-week PPR WR), Cole Kmet (bye-week TE), Rome Odunze, Trey Benson, Cardinals DST

In the three games since their Week 5 bye, the Eagles rank fourth in RB rush yards per carry allowed (3.6), second in five-plus-yard rush rate allowed (18.4%), and have given up one rushing score and not even 50 rush yards or 80 total yards to a single running back. They also have registered 14 sacks and forfeited just one passing score in those three games. To be fair, they’ve taken on Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, and Joe Burrow, so not exactly the toughest slate. Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars, with a depleted receiving corps and the backup left tackle now a starter the rest of the season, should help the unit keep shining.

OBVIOUS STARTS: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown

STARTS: DeVonta Smith, Brian Thomas Jr. (No. 2 WR), Evan Engram, Eagles DST

SITS: Trevor Lawrence, Tank Bigsby, Parker Washington (PPR stash), Grant Calcaterra, D’Ernest Johnson (desperation bye-week RB), Jaguars DST

I wouldn’t discount the matchup for Josh Jacobs. In fact, I think it’s a good one for him and the Packers. In two games without Aidan Hutchinson, the Lions have allowed 5.2 yards per rush to running backs, along with a steep 14% rate of runs of 10-plus yards. For context, those numbers are on par with what the Dolphins and Giants, two of the league’s worst run defenses, have given up on the season. Whether it’s Malik Willis or an injured Jordan Love, the Packers might focus on slowing down the pace and running with Jacobs.

OBVIOUS STARTS: Josh Jacobs, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown

STARTS: Jared Goff, Jordan Love, David Montgomery, Jayden Reed (low-end No. 2 WR), Sam LaPorta, Tucker Kraft (low-end starter)

FLEX: Romeo Doubs

SITS: Christian Watson (bye-week WR), Dontayvion Wicks, Packers DST, Lions DST

The Seahawks were rough on both sides of the ball last week, getting smashed on the ground by James Cook and dealing with a shaky O-line that left Geno Smith unsettled. Now they’ll face a Rams offense that looked like world-beaters last week against an aggressive Vikings defense and a Rams defense that’s begun improving its pass rush and run defense (four yards per carry or lower to each of their past three opponents, including the Packers and Vikings). With its run defense sliding toward the bottom of the league (6.2 yards per rush allowed to RBs in their past four), this could be an ugly showing by the formerly first-place Seahawks. 

OBVIOUS STARTS: Kyren Williams, Kenneth Walker III

STARTS: Matthew Stafford (top-10 QB), Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, DK Metcalf (if active)

FLEX: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (low-end PPR flex)

SITS: Geno Smith, Demarcus Robinson (bye-week WR), Tyler Lockett, Noah Fant (bye-week TE), Colby Parkinson, Rams DST (bye-week DST), Seahawks DST

The Vikings’ struggles against slot receivers continued last week when Cooper Kupp notched the sixth touchdown catch from the slot in Minnesota’s past four games. You already knew getting Joe Flacco under center was a boon for Josh Downs (77% slot rate), who has at least 15 PPR points in each game with Flacco, but now you know the matchup is amazing, too. Michael Pittman hasn’t benefitted quite as much as Downs has with Flacco, and it definitely seems like Pittman’s back issue is keeping him limited, but he’s obviously set to see catchable throws again and have a shot at a 5-70-0 stat line as a floor. The Vikes gave up two scores to Demarcus Robinson last week, one in the red zone, and saw their coverage rates versus outside receivers dip thanks to Robinson and Puka Nacua. No defense sees more targets per game to outside WRs than the Vikings, and aside from them keeping receivers from getting extra yards after the catch, they’re about league average. It’s suitable for Pittman. And if these receivers look good, then Flacco should be considered a start as well, especially since 3 of the past four quarterbacks against the Vikings have found at least 23 Fantasy points.

OBVIOUS STARTS: Justin Jefferson

STARTS: Joe Flacco (borderline starter), Sam Darnold (borderline starter), Jonathan Taylor, Aaron Jones, Josh Downs (especially in PPR), T.J. Hockenson (low-end TE)

FLEX: Michael Pittman

SITS: Jordan Addison (bye-week WR), Adonai Mitchell (stash), Alec Pierce, Vikings DST, Colts DST

The Falcons made it easy for Baker Mayfield to check down to his running backs and tight ends last week because they played a ton of zone coverage and can’t get pressure on the quarterback. The Chiefs can and probably will do the exact opposite. On top of being among the league’s heaviest man-to-man coverage defenses (especially on second and third downs), the Chiefs also blitz at the fifth-highest rate and went ham with it last week against the Raiders and their depleted passing game (53% of dropbacks). And if that’s not enough, Steve Spagnuolo’s defense has contained every running back in the pass game it’s faced since Week 1, including Bijan Robinson and Alvin Kamara. Volume is key for the Bucs RBs, and even though Bucky Irving had seven grabs on seven targets last week, I’d still lean toward Rachaad White as the safer bet for receptions since he played every third-down snap and ran a dozen more routes than any other Bucs running back. Plus, I’m skeptical of Irving seeing more than three targets in a game again. And I’d be wary of another good game from Mayfield against this awesome defense.

OBVIOUS STARTS: Travis Kelce

STARTS: Kareem Hunt, Rachaad White (PPR only), Cade Otton, Chiefs DST

FLEX: Xavier Worthy, Jalen McMillan (low-end flex), DeAndre Hopkins (low-end PPR flex), Bucky Irving (low-end PPR flex)

SITS: Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, Rakim Jarrett, Buccaneers DST

All lines from Caesars Sportsbook. Who should you start and sit this week? And which surprising running back could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week Fantasy rankings for every position, plus see which RB comes out of nowhere to crack the top five, all from the model that has outperformed experts big-time.