Tomorrow's Top 25 Today: Ohio State advances, Clemson flirts with exit amid upheaval in the college football rankings

If the first Saturday in November is a preview of the final month of the regular season, no one's position in the rankings is safe. AP's Top 25 voters have a lot of work to do after what happened in Week 10, when seven teams in the rankings suffered defeats on another Saturday full of unexpected surprises.

These teams will all fall in the rankings, but where they end up will depend on how much each voter wants to balance what has been accomplished so far in the season against a legitimate reaction to the weekend's loss. The fact that four of the losses came to teams that were not ranked only makes it even more difficult to adjust the rankings, as there is not necessarily a clear direct positioning on the ballot. We don't expect Houston or Louisville to jump into the top 25 just because of an upset win. So how can Kansas State or Clemson fare against the other teams at the end of a vote when there is also a loss that can have a detrimental effect? Your ranking profile?

Ultimately, in this exercise we have found in the past that votes diverge widely, resulting in a tighter squeeze between consensus voting points. Unsettled weekends don't always throw the entire top 25 on its head so much as it brings the rankings closer together, allowing for quicker changes in the coming weeks.

All of this comes as the committee releases its first College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday. And while we observed some dogs wagging their tails and tail-wagging dog behavior in the AP Poll and CFP Selection Committee during the first decade of the playoff era, these results suggest increased fluidity over the course of the year November. Whatever is released in the AP Top 25 on Sunday or the CFP Rankings on Tuesday will only be a snapshot, as Saturday's results have prepared us for even more chaos as the 2024 regular season enters its final act .

Here's what we predict Sunday's new AP Top 25 poll will look like after Week 10.

1. Oregon (Last week – 1): One of the few certainties when combining the AP Poll projections with the early 2024 CFP rankings is that Oregon will be the No. 1 team in the country. The Ducks have the record and look the part, and although the home win against Michigan created some adversity – in part due to the loss of star wide receiver Tez Johnson to injury and also a strong performance from the Michigan defense in the second half – Oregon answered the call with a statement win.

2. Ohio State (4): While the loss to Oregon will ultimately dissuade most voters from picking the Buckeyes at No. 1, Ohio State continues to build a compelling case as the best team in the country. Ohio State overcame several mistakes in a hostile environment but made enough winning plays in the second half defeated Penn State for the eighth straight time.

3. Georgia (2): Just 50 voting points separated Georgia from Penn State in last week's voting, and we expect support for the Nittany Lions to shift to Ohio State and USA shaky performance against Florida will result in a one spot drop for the Bulldogs.

4.Miami (5): Cam Ward continued to shine with his heroics in the second half, finishing the game with 400 yards and five touchdowns Hurricanes erased a double-digit deficit for the third time this season to improve to 9:0 year-on-year. Ward's 29 touchdown passes this year have already tied the program single-season record and put him first among all FBS quarterbacks in 2024.

5. Texas (6): The Longhorns were out in Week 10 and will be back in action next Saturday against Florida.

6. Penn State (3): The Nittany Lions have a pretty high case for their fall considering their narrow loss to one of the teams widely considered one of the best in the country. Frustration within the Penn State fan base is high right now, but we expect less concern from voters as this team is 7-1 with multiple wins against teams with winning records.

7. Indiana (13): The time to keep the Hoosiers outside the top 10 is over. All of Saturday's chaos just highlighted how difficult it is to remain undefeated, and the fact that Indiana rose to the challenge from a 10-0 deficit on the road against Michigan State and responded with a whopping 47 unanswered points just goes to show how strong the foundation is for Curt Cignetti's team.

8. Tennessee (7): The Volunteers faced a tough test early in Kentucky, but held on for the win and will maintain their spot in the top 10.

9. Notre Dame (8): The Fighting Irish were out in Week 10 and will be back in action next week against Florida State.

10. BYU (9): The Cougars were out in Week 10 and will be back in action next week at Utah.

11. Alabama (14): The Crimson Tide were missing in Week 10 and will be back in action next week against LSU.

12. Boise State (15): Ashton Jeanty wasn't even the most productive star on Boise State's offense, as San Diego State's decision to stop the run allowed Maddux Madsen to pass for 307 total yards and four touchdowns through the air in a 56-24 win achieve. Jeanty was still outstanding with 149 total yards and two touchdowns on 31 carries, but the Broncos' firepower as a team was on full display as they prepared to win the Mountain West title and a spot in the College Football Playoff.

13. SMU (20): The shocks elsewhere and the convincing end result of Saturday night's win over Pitt should provide a nice boost for the Mustangs, who now find themselves on a collision course with Miami in the ACC title race.

14. Texas A&M (10): With Texas A&M just beating LSU last week, it's hard to imagine falling behind the Tigers in the new rankings as both teams are coming off two losses. But there will be some voters who will, considering South Carolina has a 24-point margin of defeat that was previously unranked.

15. LSU (16): The Tigers had a break in Week 10 and will be back in action next week against Alabama.

16. Ole Miss (19): Any reports of Ole Miss' demise may have been greatly exaggerated, because for the first time in weeks, the Rebels' offense looked like the unit that was among the most productive units in the country earlier in the season. Jaxson Dart totaled 515 passing yards and six touchdowns in one stunning 63-31 win at Arkansas This could lead to a little more voter support after the stock appears to have bottomed out at No. 19 in its rankings.

17th Army (21): While Bryson Daily's status will be of utmost importance going forward, backup quarterback Dewayne Coleman was able to hold the fort and secure one 20:3 win This puts the Black Knights at 8-0 this season.

18. Iowa State (11): The problem for Iowa State is that without an undefeated profile, the team will be judged by the quality of its wins. As it stands, the Cyclones don't have many wins against teams with a winning record, so they'll have a hard time winning tiebreakers against other teams with a single loss.

19. Washington State (22): The Cougars were out in Week 10 and will be back in action next week against Utah State.

20. Kansas State (17): A straight win against Colorado might be the only thing that keeps Kansas State in the top 25, as Saturday's loss to Houston is not only a bad loss for the rankings, but also a potentially devastating loss for the Wildcats in the Big 12. Title race.

21. Colorado (23): The Buffs were out in Week 10 and will be back in action next week at Texas Tech.

22. Missouri (25): The Tigers were sidelined in Week 10 and will be back in action next week against Oklahoma.

23. Vanderbilt (NR): The Commodores dropped out of the rankings last week after a narrow loss to Texas, but just three voting points separate them from Missouri at No. 25. With a road win over Auburn that moves Vanderbilt to 6-3 on the season, Clark is in demand Group should be back in the rankings.

24. South Carolina (NR): With a blowout 24-point win over Texas A&M, the Gamecocks make their 2024 AP Poll debut – the program's first appearance since 2022 and just the fifth week since the start of the 2019 season.

25. Clemson (11): The Tigers are in grave danger of dropping out of the rankings; Their best win on the profile is a win over NC State, which improved to 5-4 on the year with a win over Stanford on Saturday.

Expected exit: No. 18 Pittsburgh, No. 24 Illinois