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The Buffalo Bills could secure the division among the fastest in NFL history

A close race was predicted for the AFC East as the Buffalo Bills face stiff challenges from the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets on their way to a fifth straight championship.

It is the most lopsided division in the NFL.

The Buffalo Bills could potentially win the AFC East in Week 11. No team in league history has secured a division title earlier.

Four teams secured a division championship in Week 11. The Bills could be fifth.

The last team to do this was the New England Patriots in 2007, who beat the Bills 56-10 in Week 11 at Orchard Park, powered by five touchdown passes from Tom Brady.

Buffalo has six wins, matching the total for the rest of the AFC East. The Bills (6-2) have a 3 1/2 game lead over the Dolphins (2-5) and a four game lead over the Jets (2-6) and New England Patriots (2-6).

If the Bills win their next three games and the Dolphins, Jets and Patriots lose their next three games, Buffalo would complete the division before Thanksgiving.

It gives new meaning to the holiday. Buffalo's bye is Week 12.

The Bills-Dolphins game is the only intradivision game in the AFC East over the next three weeks, meaning no other team in the AFC East is guaranteed a win or a tie.

Here's the scenario for the AFC East title in mid-November: Buffalo is 9-2 with three straight wins in Weeks 9-11. Miami falls to 2-8 with three straight losses and New York and New England fall to 2-9. The Bills' worst record after that is 9-8. Miami's ceiling would also be 9-8, but the Bills would clinch the division by winning the head-to-head tiebreaker.

The Bills host the Dolphins on Sunday, travel to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 10 and the Kansas City Chiefs visit Orchard Park in Week 11 on November 17th. Then Buffalo doesn't play until the San Francisco 49ers come to Highmark Stadium on Sunday Night Football on December 1st at 8:20 p.m.

Buffalo Bills playoff picture

If the season ends today, the Bills would be the No. 4 seed behind the Kansas City Chiefs (7-0), Houston Texans (6-2) and Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2). Buffalo currently has a 96% chance of making the playoffs.

Buffalo can't lock the division until Week 11 at the earliest. Here's what would need to happen from Weeks 9 to 11.

  • Invoices: Beat Dolphins, Colts and Chiefs
  • Dolphins: lose to Bills, Chargers and Raiders
  • Jets: lose to Texans, Cardinals and Colts
  • Patriots: Lose to Titans, Bears and Chargers

When was the earliest an NFL team won a division?

Four NFL teams won a division title in Week 11:

  • 2007 New England Patriots: New England was the only team to go undefeated in a 16-game regular season. The Patriots lost 17-14 to the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII.
  • 2004 Philadelphia Eagles: Philadelphia started the season 13-1, rested its starters for the final two regular season games and finished the season 13-3. The Eagles reached the NFC Championship Game for the fourth straight year, won the conference championship and lost 24-21 to the Patriots in Super Bowl XXXIX.
  • 1997 San Francisco 49ers: San Francisco went 13-3 under first-year head coach Steve Mariucci and was the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The 49ers lost 23-10 to the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship.
  • 1985 Chicago Bears: Chicago had one of the best seasons in NFL history. The Bears won their first 12 games en route to a 15-1 regular season record. Chicago defeated the New England Patriots 46-10 in Super Bowl XX.

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