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What polls show about the race between Trump and Harris ahead of the 2024 election

Let's be clear: the polls cannot tell us who will win the presidential election. Or which party will control Congress. Or who will win a particular state?

The race is The tight and uncertain, and so have the polls in previous election cycles The far off the mark.

With these caveats out of the way, we should not ignore the consistent storylines in the polls that have defined the political forces shaping the election.

They don't tell us who will win – but we'll know that soon enough. The polls can already help explain the forces shaping this election and how either former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris could emerge victorious.

The gender gap is enormous

The latest NBC News national poll shows Trump winning among men by 18 percentage points and Harris winning among women by 16 percentage points – a combined gender gap of 34 points, up from 30 points in the October NBC News poll.

Now, not every survey reflects the same massive gender divide. But many do, and it could be one of the defining storylines of this election. What's more, the NBC News poll and others find that the gender gap in education is even more pronounced: Harris wins by a wide margin among white women with college degrees, while Trump is strong among men and women without college degrees.

The potential election of the first female president, a widespread backlash against Trump, the overturning of Roe vs. Wade and more have contributed significantly to the widening gap in Harris' favorability among women. But Trump and his intense appeals to men were also a big story of the election.

Democrats have lost ground with Latino voters (as well as some black voters).

While Harris and the Democrats have gained ground among college-educated white women, they have lost ground among Latino voters, according to the NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC Latino Poll this fall.

There is also a slight decline for Democrats among black voters, particularly younger black men.

In a close election, the outcome could depend on exactly how these trends affect the electorate after months of analysis through polls. And if the changes are focused on certain states, they could also have a big say in the Electoral College's decision.

Voters view Trump's presidency more positively than Biden's

The latest NBC News poll finds President Joe Biden with a job rating of 41% approving and 58% disapproving. By comparison, Trump's retroactive job rating in the same poll is: 48% approve, 51% disapprove.

That 48% approval rating for Trump is higher than the NBC News poll ever recorded for him during his presidency.

The same dynamic arises as with the question of who voters think would better represent change (more on this below). And it could play a crucial role as some swing voters have said they are willing to look beyond what they see as Trump's character flaws out of a desire to return to the economic conditions they remembered from the years of his presidency remember before Corona.

Harris is more popular than Trump – but how much more popular?

Despite higher post-approval approval for Trump, he remains a historically unpopular figure for a presidential candidate – at 42% favorable and 51% unfavorable among all registered voters (a net rating of -9). It's not the -33 net rating he had before his first presidential run in 2016, but it's also not what successful presidential candidates typically enjoy.

When Harris became the Democratic presidential nominee, however, her popularity in the NBC News poll skyrocketed. But it has since returned to Earth and not far from Trump's. That would make Harris an exception if she wins too.

According to the latest NBC News national poll, her rating is 43% positive and 50% negative (-7 net). Other polls show slightly higher popularity ratings for Harris.

Harris leads on abortion; Trump is ahead when it comes to inflation

What has also been consistent across the polls are the president's issues and characteristics, with Harris having a significant advantage on abortion, which is a top motivating issue for voters, according to the NBC News poll.

By comparison, with a few exceptions, Trump has a lead over Harris on the economy and cost of living – although the lead is narrower than when President Joe Biden was in the Democratic race. And whether he was running against Biden or Harris, Trump's biggest advantage has long been on the border and immigration control.

While both candidates played to their strengths, they also did what they could to mitigate those weaknesses, such as when Trump said during his debate with Harris that he would not sign a nationwide abortion ban. And while Biden never ran a TV ad about the border, Harris' campaign began airing one just weeks after she took over the Democratic ticket.

Who is the change candidate in the race?

This could be the most important question in a contest between a sitting vice president (Harris) and an ex-president (Trump), both vying for voters who believe the nation is on the wrong track. In the final NBC News poll, 46% of voters said Harris better represents change, compared with 41% who believe Trump does – a slight edge for Harris.

However, when asked what worries them more – whether Harris is taking the same approach as Biden or whether Trump is continuing the approach from his first term as president – 41% said they are more worried about Harris following Biden's path will follow, compared to 40% who are more concerned about Trump repeating the actions of his time in office, according to the same poll.

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