Latest New York Times Swing States Poll Released: See Results

The final list of New York Times and Siena College polls released Sunday shows Vice President Kamala Harris appears to have a slight lead in enough states to win the Electoral College.

In the polls, Harris was ahead in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Georgia. Former President Donald Trump and Harris were tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan, while Trump was ahead in Arizona, although each result was within the margin of error. Harris would have at least 274 electoral votes, enough to take the White House, if those results were reached after Election Day.

The narrow lead is in stark contrast to a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll released late Saturday that showed Harris up 3% in Iowa, a state considered safe for Trump.

The polls were conducted among likely voters between October 24 and November 24. 2 and surveyed 7,879 likely voters in battleground states with a margin of error of ±3.5% in each state.

The latest New York Times/Siena College polls

Arizona

The Times had Trump ahead of Harris in the Copper State, 49% to 45%.

A proposal to enshrine the right to abortion until the fetus is viable was supported by 54% of respondents and opposed by 39%.

In the state Senate race, Democrat Ruben Gallego has a five-point lead over Republican Kari Lake. The survey assumes a rate of 50% to 45%.

According to the poll, Arizona is the only state where Trump has a lead over people who have already voted. Trump leads among Arizonans who have already voted 50-46%.

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Georgia

The Times found Harris leading the Peach State with 48% to Trump's 47%.

When third-party candidates were included, the tie was 46%.

Three percent of respondents in the state told the Times they made their decision in the “last few days.”

The survey found that 57% of people in the state said the federal response to “recent hurricanes” was either adequate or poor.

Michigan

The Times found that the candidates in Michigan were tied at 47%. If third-party candidates are included, the race remains undecided, but at 45%.

The poll found the Great Lakes State was one of two states, along with Arizona, where Trump was expected to exceed his vote share in 2020.

Democrat Elissa Slotkin leads her Republican challenger Mike Rodgers 48% to 46% in the state Senate race.

Nevada

Harris has the largest lead in the polls in Nevada, leading Trump 49% to 46%. When third-party candidates are included, the lead shrinks to 48-46%.

A ballot proposal to enshrine abortion rights in the Silver State's constitution has 63% support in the poll.

Both candidates' popularity ratings were below average in the state, with Trump's approval at -7% and Harris' approval at -3%.

North Carolina

Harris led Trump 48% to 46% in the Times poll in North Carolina.

Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein leads Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson by 17% in the state's race for governor. The race, marred by discoveries about Robinson's history of offensive and racist comments online, is one reason the state is in play for Democrats.

A majority of respondents, 52%, rated the federal response to Hurricane Helene as fair or poor, and 3% said it would have at least some impact on their ability to vote.

Pennsylvania

The poll shows Trump and Harris tied at 48% in the Keystone State. This marks a four-point swing toward Trump in the state.

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey leads Republican Dave McCormick by 5% in his race, down from 9% in the Times' previous poll in September.

The poll found that 55% of respondents were confident about voting and 21% had already voted.

Wisconsin

The poll shows Harris leading Trump 49 percent to 47 percent in Wisconsin.

The Times found that abortion was almost as important to voters in the Badger State as the economy.

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin has a four-point lead in the poll over her Republican challenger Eric Hovde.

What you should consider when taking surveys

The margin of error describes how accurately we can assume that the survey results are representative of the entire population.

If a candidate's lead is “within” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to the Pew Research Center.

Pew also found that the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, which significantly underestimated Trump's performance.