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New Caribbean storm poses threat to Gulf Coast states

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A surprise in November?

As Americans turn their attention to Tuesday's election, weather experts are keeping an eye on a low pressure system in the western Caribbean that is expected to impact the U.S. later this week. However, to what extent remains uncertain.

The system, now known as Potential Tropical Cyclone 18, prompted the governments of the Cayman Islands and Jamaica to issue a hurricane warning and tropical storm warning, respectively, the National Hurricane Center said Sunday. Cuba is also expected to be affected.

AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said 18 could develop into a tropical storm the next day, naming Rafael, and could gain hurricane status as it drifts west of Jamaica in the coming days instead of it to meet.

Regardless, he expects Rafael will be felt somewhere along the central and eastern Gulf Coast at some point and urged residents of those areas to be vigilant.

“Even if it encounters cooler water and wind shear and loses intensity as it moves north, you will still be talking about a significant wind and rain event,” Pydynowski told USA TODAY. “Even if it is a tropical storm, there will still be impacts.”

The National Hurricane Center said in its 10 p.m. ET bulletin on Sunday that the system is expected to bring heavy rain to parts of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica and southern and western parts of Cuba, through midweek. Flooding and mudslides are also possible in parts of Jamaica and Cuba.

According to the hurricane center, heavy rain could then spread north to Florida and other areas in the southeastern United States. Meteorologists advised residents of Cuba and the Florida Keys to monitor the system into the week.

An extremely damaging hurricane season

Those are worrying words in a busy hurricane season that has caused enormous devastation alongside other destructive storms such as Beryl, Helene and Milton. The United States has been hit by five hurricanes this season, killing at least 300 people and causing around $130 billion in economic losses.

Only four recorded hurricanes hit the U.S. mainland in the penultimate month of the calendar, but the most recent – Nicole – hit Florida just two years ago. The season runs until November 30th.

There remains much unknown about the current system, its trajectory and the chances of it getting worse over the course of the week. The NHC said an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft was gathering more information on Sunday.

However, Pydynowski noted that conditions were favorable for strengthening in the Caribbean, including low wind shear and slightly above-average temperatures in the mid-80s.

The big question for the U.S. is what happens after the storm moves north of western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, possibly by Wednesday. It could initially strengthen before encountering severe wind shear and slightly cooler water as it approaches American soil, which should weaken it.

“It's difficult to reach hurricane status on the central Gulf Coast at this time of year, but it certainly can happen,” Pydynowski said. “The water is still over 70 degrees, it’s still warm. Especially if the storm is moving quickly so it doesn’t spend much time over cooler water.”

Residents of the southeast coast, particularly in hurricane-ravaged Florida, would be much better off if the storm abated and cooler water prevailed.

Signs of trouble still lurk

The hurricane center said a low-pressure trough near the southern Bahamas was producing showers and thunderstorms but would likely be absorbed by the developing storm, which could become Rafael by late Monday.

But there are still signs of further activity in the northern Caribbean and possibly in the far southwest Atlantic around the Bahamas, Pydynowski said, stressing that the season isn't over for nearly four weeks.

(This story has been updated to add new information.)

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