Sinwar's death may not hasten the end of the war – Charlotte Lawson

America's top diplomat met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in Israel on Tuesday to reach a final agreement on a ceasefire for the release of hostages before the November 5 election. Such an agreement could allow the Biden-Harris administration to secure credit for mediating an end to a politically sensitive conflict before Americans head to the polls next month.

During his meeting with Netanyahu, Blinken emphasized “the need to capitalize on Israel's successful actions to bring Yahya Sinwar to justice by securing the release of all hostages and ending the conflict in Gaza in a way that provides lasting security for Israelis and… Palestinians alike,” according to a State Department announcement.

After numerous failed attempts to broker a deal to end the fighting and return the hostages, U.S. officials hope that expelling Sinwar will give them new room to negotiate a deal that clears the way for regime change in Gaza. After the terror chief's death, President Joe Biden described him as an “insurmountable obstacle” to a better “day after” in the enclave. U.S. officials said Sinwar refused to even take part in internationally brokered ceasefire negotiations in the weeks before his killing.

The beheading of Hamas could also give Israel more leeway in setting the conditions for ending the war. Gone is the fear that the Sinwar would emerge from the rubble and achieve victory over Israel based on survival alone. With the death of the Hamas leader and the virtual dissolution of the organized military structure, Jerusalem has achieved one of the war goals it set a year ago.

However, as with previous rounds of ceasefire negotiations, details matter. Although both the United States and Israel have signaled their support for the eventual deployment of a multinational force to take over Hamas's administrative functions in Gaza, Israeli officials remain determined to maintain control of the Philadelphia Corridor. The 8-mile stretch of land between Egypt and Gaza has long been a vital lifeline for Hamas, which used it for years as a smuggling route to transform the enclave into a fortified war machine before the Oct. 7 attack.

Israel also wants any future deal to recognize its right to operate in Gaza to combat terrorism – similar to the West Bank – and to destroy military infrastructure as Hamas seeks to reconstitute itself. The US and other international mediators have pushed for a credible path to a Palestinian state as part of any deal, but that remains a distant prospect given Israeli opposition and the fragmented Palestinian leadership.

“Israel is on the offensive. It now has the necessary momentum on both fronts, in Gaza and Lebanon. I don’t think they want to stop things right now,” said Chuck Freilich, Israel’s former deputy national security adviser The shipping. But Hamas may now be just as cautious when it comes to diplomacy, he added. “Hamas wants to strike back and show that it can continue fighting despite Sinwar's killing. To signal that they are ready to quit is to admit defeat, essentially the failure of the entire effort. And that’s not how they operate.”

It is also unclear who is left to negotiate after a years-long attempt by Israel to weaken Hamas' leadership. In Gaza, Sinwar's younger brother Mohammed is seen as the most likely candidate to succeed the murdered leader. Abroad, a single person like Khaled Meshal could run Hamas's political bureau from Qatar, but instead a multi-member council could assume leadership duties to prevent any of them from being targeted by Israel – a strategy followed by Hezbollah He replaced Hassan Nasrallah after the terror chief's assassination last month.

“Hamas fears that Israel will assassinate the new leader if they appoint one,” said Yoni Ben-Menachem, an Israel-based expert on Arab affairs The shipping. “But of course that won't help them, because Israel will assassinate the entire leadership – whether it's a single person or a few.”

Whoever takes power – be it an individual or a group – will likely try to maintain Sinwar's tough approach to diplomatic overtures to end the war. In a speech after the leader's death last week, Hamas Politburo member Khalil al-Hayya, another possible successor to Sinwar, said the terror group would accept the slain leader's conditions for a hostage deal – namely a full Israeli withdrawal from Hamas. will not change Gaza Strip before the release of abductees. “We will keep our oath to you, Abu Ibrahim, and your banner will not fall,” al-Hayya said, using another name to refer to Sinwar.

“As for Hamas, it adheres to the same positions as Yahya Sinwar before he was killed. If they make any concessions, it will be interpreted as giving in to Israel’s demands,” Ben-Menachem said. “They can’t afford something like that because it would look like a surrender in Gaza.”