Tropical Storm Rafael is developing into a hurricane before hitting Cuba on Wednesday

CNN
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Tropical Storm Rafael has begun to strengthen in the Caribbean and is expected to reach hurricane strength by Wednesday, bringing damaging winds and heavy rain to the region.

According to the National Hurricane Center's Tuesday morning update, Rafael was located about 105 miles south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, and 265 miles southeast of Grand Cayman. The storm is expected to produce damaging winds, dangerous storm surges and torrential rain, first in Jamaica and the Grand Cayman Islands starting Tuesday and then in western Cuba on Wednesday. Impacts could even occur in parts of the Florida Keys starting Wednesday evening.

According to the National Hurricane Center's update Monday evening, the Isle of Youth and several Cuban provinces, as well as the Grand Cayman Islands, have been placed under hurricane warnings. Hurricane-force winds could affect parts of the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon and western Cuba by Wednesday.

Tropical Storm warnings were issued for the Florida Keys on Monday, in addition to existing warnings for Cuba, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Gusty winds and 1 to 3 inches of precipitation are possible.

While it remains uncertain what impact Rafael could have on the northern Gulf Coast, residents are urged to stay informed. Heavy rain is expected across the western Caribbean, including Jamaica and Cuba, through midweek, increasing the risk of flooding and landslides, with rainfall spreading to Florida and the Southeast later in the week. Shifts in the storm's path could have a significant impact on flood risk across Florida and the Southeast.

The Cuban The provinces of Cienfuegos, Villa Clara, Sancti Spiritus and Ciego de Avila are under tropical storm warnings after being upgraded from the tropical storm watch. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Jamaica.

The NHC predicts that Rafael could experience “stable to rapid intensification” as it approaches the Cayman Islands and Cuba. The current forecast calls for Rafael to be at least a Category 1 hurricane by the time it makes landfall in Cuba on Wednesday.

In the Caribbean, Rafael has begun to trigger heavy rains, particularly affecting Jamaica. Forecasts suggest between 3 and 6 inches of rain could fall in western Cuba and the Cayman Islands, with as much as 9 inches in parts of Jamaica and Cuba. This flooding increases the risk of flash floods and mudslides, particularly in the mountainous regions of Jamaica.

Showers and thunderstorms hit many communities across Jamaica, with strong, gusty winds sweeping through parts of the southern regions, the country's weather service said in its briefing at 8 p.m. ET.

Schools in Jamaica will close for in-person classes on Tuesday as a precaution against the severe weather, CNN affiliate Radio Jamaica News reported.

The different forecasts from different forecast models add to the uncertainty surrounding the storm. One model calls for Rafael to make landfall in western Cuba and then move northwest toward the U.S., while another suggests a possible left turn in the Gulf that could weaken the storm or lead to landfall in northeastern Mexico.

Although five hurricanes have made landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast this year, Rafael is expected to be less intense than hurricanes Helene and Milton because its strength may be limited by Cuba's geography and unfavorable winds.

Although tropical activity generally decreases in November, storms can still develop and landfalls in the U.S. are rare during this month. Hurricane expert Michael Lowry noted that 98% of the named storms typically make landfall in the U.S. before November.

Tropical Storm Rafael will also bring rough seas and significant storm surge, with flooding expected to reach up to 3 feet in the Cayman Islands and up to 9 feet in western Cuba above normal tide levels.