Kamala Harris is predicted to be the winner by almost every major prognosticator

As the election begins, almost all major forecasters are predicting that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the election.

Nate Silver's latest forecast now gives Harris a slight lead in the Electoral College, giving her a 50 percent chance of victory compared to former President Donald Trump's 49.6 percent. The model shows Harris receiving 271 Electoral College votes, while Trump received 267.

This represents a departure from Silver's previous forecasts, which had Trump with a narrow edge. On Monday, Silver's forecast favored Trump with a 50.4 percent chance to Harris' 49.2 percent, and the day before, Trump had a 52.6 percent chance of winning Harris to Harris' 47 percent.

Other aggregators repeat the close race, but also give Harris a small edge. FiveThirtyEight currently projects a 50 percent chance of winning, predicting 270 Electoral College votes for Harris versus 268 for Trump.

Now a British newspaper The Economist predicts Harris will win 276 votes to Trump's 262 – a scenario echoed by forecaster Larry Sabato. The race for the White House projects that she will win 275 electoral votes.

Her biggest win is predicted by CNanalysis, which predicts the vice president will win 308 Electoral College votes to Trump's 230, giving Harris a 70 percent victory share.

The only forecasters showing Trump is expected to win are DecisionDeskHQ, which shows Trump is expected to win 276 votes to Harris' 262 votes, and JL Partners, which shows the former president winning 287 Electoral College votes over Harris ' will win 251 votes. DecisionDeskHQ shows Trump has a 54 percent chance of winning, while JL Partners shows he has a 60 percent chance of winning.

Newsweek emailed the Harris and Trump campaigns seeking comment.

Since Harris became the Democratic presidential nominee in late July, polls have been close, with Harris leading through most of August and September, but early October saw the vice president's chances decline as Trump made gains in key battleground states. Since then, the race has been virtually a draw.

Current polls show that the candidates are only 1 and 2 points apart. For example, the latest AtlasIntel poll conducted between November 3rd and 4th shows Trump leading by one point, while the latest Research Co. poll conducted between November 2nd and 3rd shows Harris with a 2 point lead.

In both polls, the candidate's lead is within the margin of error. According to FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver, Harris and Trump are also within 1 and 2 points of each other in every swing state.

Overall, FiveThirtyEight's tracker has Harris ahead by 1.2 points, while Silver's tracker has her ahead by 1 point, showing how narrow the margins are in this election.

“When I say that the odds in this year's presidential race are as close to 50/50 as possible, I'm not exaggerating,” Silver wrote in his last newsletter.

However, FiveThirtyEight warned that while the polls are close, that doesn't necessarily mean the overall result will be close.

“A close race in the polls does not necessarily mean the outcome will be close,” the pollsters wrote on their website.

According to FiveThirtyEight's analysis, exit polls in U.S. presidential, House of Representatives, Senate and gubernatorial elections since 1998 have typically missed the final vote margin by an average of about 6 points.

In 2020, for example, polls showed President Joe Biden with a significant lead over then-President Trump. Shortly before the election, Biden was ahead by 8.4 points in the FiveThirtyEight average. Ultimately, he won the popular vote by less than 4.5 points – just enough for an Electoral College victory.

Similarly, in 2016, FiveThirtyEight gave Hillary Clinton a 71 percent chance of winning, but she ultimately lost the Electoral College despite winning the popular vote.

Scott Keeter, senior fellow at the Pew Research Center, shared Newsweek this week that polls in 2020 and 2016 were inaccurate because Trump supporters backed away from polls due to distrust of institutions like the mainstream media and pollsters.

However, in the 2022 midterm elections, poll errors averaged just 4.8 points, representing the most accurate cycle in 25 years. If the polls fail by a similar result this cycle, the resulting impact could be crucial.

For example, if the polls underestimate Harris by 4.8 points in the seven key swing states, she would win each of them, receiving 319 electoral votes to Trump's 219. Conversely, if the polls underestimate Trump by the same amount, he would win the battleground states and secure 312 electoral votes.

Experts believe the polls will be more accurate this year because the adjustments now better account for more likely Trump supporters who were previously underrepresented in the polls.

“Many pollsters today rely on past votes [history] to correct the Trump undercount,” Cliff Young, president of Ipsos Polling, said previously Newsweek.