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Allan Lichtman reiterates his forecast for the 2024 presidential election

Historian Allan Lichtman criticized Nate Silver's final prediction for 2024, even though both predicted that Kamala Harris would defeat Donald Trump.

Historian Allan Lichtman reiterated his 2024 election prediction that Vice President Kamala Harris will narrowly defeat former President Donald Trump and called out his co-predictor Nate Silver for sharing the same predicted outcome.

Lichtman, who has accurately predicted nine of the last 10 presidential elections, shared a post on Monday

The 77-year-old historian responds to an X post shared by Silver on Monday in which he explains how his final election prediction could be decided by “luck.”

“It could literally end up in an area where luck decides who comes out ahead in our final forecast,” Silver’s post said. “There is still a little variance introduced by running “only” 40,000 simulations (we will be running 80,000 tonight). but still…).”

Live results: How to follow live election results from the 2024 presidential, Senate, House of Representatives races and more

Who will win the election? Legendary fortune teller Allan Lichtman has “crows” in his stomach

Silver's Bulletin Prediction vs. Lichtman's “13 Keys to the White House”

Silver's final prediction for the 2024 presidential election had Harris winning by a razor-thin margin, having won 40,012 of the 80,000 total simulations.

Lichtman, on the other hand, is using his “13 Keys to the White House” system to determine who will win the election. On Monday, he expressed his confidence in his system in a separate X post, writing: “Mark my words…The Keys will be right again!”

Using his system, Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1984. His only blemish came in 2000, when Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.

“I have a flock of crows in my stomach”

Especially in this election year, Lichtman said he's pretty nervous because democracy is so fragile and relatively new.

“There has been almost no democracy throughout human history,” Lichtman said in a live video interview with his son Sam on his YouTube channel. “Men were ruled by the divine right of kings, by birthright, or by sword and blood. Democracy is a very recent development.”

In addition to his Democratic comments, Lichtman said, “I've been doing this for 42 years and every four years I get butterflies in my stomach. This year I think I have a flock of crows in my stomach.”

What are Lichtman's 13 keys?

Lichtman's “13 Keys to the White House” include:

  • Key 1 (Party Mandate): After the midterm elections, the incumbent party has more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
  • Key 2 (Competition): There is no serious competition for the incumbent party's nomination.
  • Key 3 (Term): The incumbent candidate of the incumbent party is the incumbent president.
  • Key 4 (Third Party): There is no significant campaign by third parties or independent parties.
  • Key 5 (Short-Term Economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
  • Key 6 (Long-Term Economy): Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds the average growth during the previous two terms.
  • Key 7 (Policy Change): The incumbent government influences major changes in national policy.
  • Key 8 (Social Unrest): No ongoing social unrest occurs during the term.
  • Key 9 (Scandal): The incumbent government is not affected by major scandals.
  • Key 10 (Foreign/Military Failure): The incumbent government does not suffer any major failure in foreign or military affairs.
  • Key 11 (Foreign/Military Success): The incumbent government achieves major success in foreign or military affairs.
  • Key 12 (Incumbent Charisma): The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
  • Key 13 (Challenger Charisma): The challenging party candidate is neither charismatic nor a national hero.

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