Republicans retain the most competitive governor's seat this year

Republicans will retain the governor's office in the swing state of New Hampshire in the most competitive gubernatorial race this year, a showdown that drew plenty of national attention and outside money.

The Fox News Decision Desk expects former Sen. Kelly Ayotte, the Republican nominee, to defeat Democratic nominee and former Mayor Joyce Craig of Manchester, New Hampshire's largest city.

Ayotte will succeed popular GOP Gov. Chris Sununu, who decided against seeking re-election after winning and serving four consecutive two-year terms as governor. [New Hampshire and neighboring Vermont are the only states in the U.S. that elect governors every two years.]

“Thank you, New Hampshire! Ready to get started immediately to keep our wonderful state safe, prosperous and free. Let’s get to work!,” Ayotte wrote in a social media post after her race was called.

Ayotte, a former attorney general who was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2010 before narrowly losing re-election six years later, handily beat a crowded field of rivals in early September to win the GOP nomination, while Craig won Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington edged out to win the Democratic nomination.

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While New Hampshire traditionally hosts the nation's first presidential primary, the state's primary is one of the youngest on the electoral calendar, setting off a headlong rush to the general election.

National Democrats invested heavily in the race, spending millions to target Ayotte over her Senate votes a decade ago on abortion and her support this year for former President Trump, whom she disavowed in her 2016 election loss.

Ayotte and her Republican allies also spent extensive time targeting Craig for crime and homelessness during her tenure as leader of Manchester, New Hampshire's largest city.

And with an eye on neighboring Massachusetts, where Democrats control the state government and dominate the congressional delegation, Ayotte made her slogan “Don't Mass UP NH” the motto of her campaign.

Former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate in New Hampshire, speaks to voters in Concord, NH, on October 6. (Joyce Craig's gubernatorial campaign)

Ayotte was a rising star in the Republican Party in 2016 with a growing profile on national security.

But shortly before the 2016 election, she withdrew her support for Trump over the “Access Hollywood” controversy, in which Trump made extremely crude comments about grabbing women without their consent in a year-old video.

“I cannot and will not support a presidential candidate who brags about demeaning and attacking women,” Ayotte said at the time.

Ayotte lost re-election to then-Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan by a razor-thin margin of just over 1,000 votes.

But Ayotte easily outperformed Trump in New Hampshire, as Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton trailed the White House winner by less than 3,000 votes.

Before retiring to New Hampshire entirely, Ayotte remained in Washington shortly after her term ended and accompanied then-Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch (Trump's first Supreme Court nominee) through his successful Senate confirmation process.

In her post-Senate career, Ayotte enjoyed a lucrative period, serving on corporate boards and in advisory roles at both public and private companies. Among them was News Corp., once the parent company of Fox News.

Former Senator Kelly Ayotte, the Republican gubernatorial candidate in New Hampshire, speaks to voters at the Hampton Beach Seafood Festival. (Kelly Ayotte Campaign)

Ayotte has also kept a close eye on New Hampshire politics in recent years, occasionally appearing on Republican Party events in the state. She continued to write opinion pieces on important state, national and international issues.

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Ayotte announced her candidacy for governor last year after Sununu announced he would not run for re-election in 2024.

Ayotte remained neutral in New Hampshire's first presidential primary, but endorsed Trump in early March, just after he secured the Republican nomination.

He will fix the disaster at the southern border, and we see it at the northern border as well, to ensure the security of the country,” Ayotte said in an interview with Fox News Digital in June.

Ayotte's primary opponent in the GOP primary, former state Senate President Chuck Morse, expressed support for Trump and shed light on Ayotte's past criticism of the former president.

But Trump remained neutral in the New Hampshire Senate primary as Ayotte defeated Morse and the rest of the GOP camp.

The former president, who was far behind in the polls in the Granite State, also avoided the state in the general election and placed only the bare minimum of resources in New Hampshire.

That meant that, aside from the strong support she received from the Republican Governors Association, Ayotte was largely on her own as she battled Craig in the general election.

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