Bitcoin, stock futures and dollar rise as election results are announced

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CNN
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US stocks rallied in after-hours trading on Tuesday evening and Bitcoin hit a new record as Wall Street digested the results of the early presidential election.

Dow futures rose more than 600 points while the S&P 500 gained half a percentage point as early election results were announced Tuesday evening. The US dollar index reached its highest level since July.

Cryptocurrencies considered part of the so-called Trump trade also surged on Tuesday. Bitcoin surpassed $74,000 on Tuesday evening, reaching an all-time high. The previous record was set at the beginning of March. Former President Donald Trump has expressed support for cryptocurrencies in the past.

Dogecoin, the volatile cryptocurrency promoted by Elon Musk, a prominent Trump supporter, rallied more than 20% in the last day.

While Trump led Vice President Kamala Harris in the early returns, several key battleground states had yet to be called as of Tuesday evening.

But with the race between Harris and Trump exceptionally close, economists are warning of possible volatility, especially if results take days or even weeks to come in. In 2020, it took several days for Joe Biden to be declared the winner, while the 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore famously dragged on for more than a month.

The Dow closed 425 points, or 1%, higher on Tuesday; the S&P 500 gained 1.2%; and the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 1.4%, underscoring investor optimism as Americans vote.

Historically, stocks have often risen on Election Day. This is the sixth consecutive election win for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.

“The market appears to be in an anticipatory recovery rally now that the election is approaching,” Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates said in a note to investors on Tuesday. “Although it’s still everyone’s opinion where the decision will lie in the election, it’s a relief to be behind in either direction.”

The prospect of a delayed or disputed outcome could increase market volatility.

“With Election Day finally here, expect greater market volatility, particularly if the wait for a result is long or controversial. “Political divisions pose a risk to investor sentiment,” said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial.

“Although markets have endured the 'hanging pot' of the 2000 Bush v. Gore election, legal challenges, recounts and the January 6 experience, they may be battle-hardened for electoral chaos,” Turnquist added.

Once the results are in, market sectors could react differently depending on the leading candidate. A Harris lead could lead to gains for green energy and manufacturing stocks amid expected boosts to infrastructure spending, clean energy and social programs. However, technology and finance could face greater regulatory scrutiny. A Trump lead would benefit the energy, financial and industrial sectors as investors expect continued tax cuts and lenient regulatory policies, Turnquist said.

Still, stocks have historically risen in the months following elections, regardless of the outcome. “Most stock price movements over time are determined by earnings, inflation and interest rates. While policy is important, especially tax and trade policy, it is not as important as some may think,” Turnquist said.

Traders are preparing for a turbulent week. Just two days after Election Day, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision, its first since cutting interest rates by half a percentage point. The Fed's announcement comes amid new data showing signs of a slowdown in the labor market, adding another layer to an already turbulent week for markets.

This story is evolving and will be updated.