Lessons from the election: Trump's decisive victory in a deeply divided nation

WASHINGTON (AP) – Donald Trump won a decisive victory in a deeply divided nation. And in doing so, the Republican president-elect exposed a fundamental weakness within the Democratic base and allayed concerns about his moral failings by becoming the first U.S. president with a distinction Conviction of a felony.

The former Republican president won over frustrated voters with bold promises that his fiery brand of economic populism and America-first conservative culture would improve their lives. However, he will be tested immediately, and there are reasons to believe that his plans for mass deportations and high tariffs could harm the very people who made his victory possible.

Nevertheless, he will enter the White House on January 20, 2025 from an undisputed position of strength. With votes still being counted, he could become the first Republican in two decades to win the popular vote.

The results leave Democrats facing an urgent and immediate reckoning: There is no obvious leader to unite the anti-Trump coalition and no clear plan for recovery as an emboldened Trump prepares to retake Washington.

Here are some key takeaways:

With modest shifts, Trump is undermining the Democratic coalition

Black voters — men and women — have been the bedrock of the Democratic Party, and in recent years Latino and young voters have joined them.

All three groups continued to favor Democrat Kamala Harris. But preliminary data from AP VoteCast, a survey of more than 115,000 voters across the country, suggests Trump has made significant gains.

Voters under 30 make up a fraction of the total electorate, but about half of them supported Harris. By comparison, about 6 in 10 supported Biden in 2020. Just over 4 in 10 young voters chose Trump, up from about a third in 2020.

At the same time, Black and Latino voters appeared slightly less likely to support Harris than they were four years ago, when they supported Biden, according to AP VoteCast.

About 8 in 10 Black voters supported Harris, compared to about 9 in 10 who supported Biden. More than half of Hispanic voters supported Harris, but that was a slight decline compared to the roughly 6 in 10 who supported Biden in 2020. Trump's support among these groups appeared to increase slightly compared to 2020. Overall, these small increases led to an outstanding result.

Trump's focus on immigration, economics and culture worked

Despite all the showmanship, obscenities and name-calling, Trump ultimately won over voters with big promises to improve the economy, block the flow of immigrants at the southern border and his siren call to “Make America Great Again.”

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He also appealed to religious voters in both parties by leveraging Democrats' support for the transgender community.

Overall, about half of Trump voters said inflation was the biggest concern in their voting decisions. About the same number said this about the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border, according to AP VoteCast.

He obscured the fact that the economy was robust by many conventional measures—inflation was largely under control and wages were rising—while border crossings had fallen dramatically. He spoke directly beyond the facts and won over voters through tireless repetition.

He also sold them on the promise of the largest mass deportation operation in U.S. history, although he did not explain how such an operation would work. And he is threatening to impose massive tariffs on key products from China and other American adversaries, which economists warn could dramatically raise prices for average Americans.

Ultimately, Trump's victory may have as much to do with the fundamental challenges Harris faced all along. Given voters' deep frustration with the direction of the country – given Biden's dismal approval ratings – she never distanced herself from her party's incumbent president. Despite being the central figure in American politics for nine years now, Trump convinced voters that he represents change.

Trump will lead a nation with deep divisions

Trump is poised to take over a country with widening political and cultural divisions and an anxious electorate.

When asked what most influenced their vote, about half of voters said the following future of democracy. That was more than the share of those who answered the same on inflation, immigration or abortion policy. And it cuts across the two major parties: About two-thirds of Harris voters and about a third of Trump voters said the future of democracy was the most important factor in their vote.

Given the realities of the Trump era and the rhetoric of the campaign, this is not surprising.

Trump refused to acknowledge his defeat in 2020 and watched as his supporters ransacked the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, as Congress met to certify Democrat Joe Biden's victory. Trump even mused two days before Election Day that he “shouldn’t have gone” the White House after repeatedly promising retaliation against his political enemies.

Harris joined other critics at the end of the campaign – including some of Trump's former White House chiefs of staff – in calling the former president a “fascist.” Trump, meanwhile, called Harris a “fascist” and “communist.”

Trump's criminal baggage is not an issue for many voters

Incomplete data shows that Donald Trump's criminal convictions, other pending charges and any concerns about his most inflammatory rhetoric are simply not enough to deter tens of millions of Americans from voting for him.

According to AP VoteCast, just over half of voters said Harris had the moral character to be president, compared to about four in 10 who said the same about Trump. It's entirely possible, as Trump has often said during the campaign, that his legal peril actually helped him.

As it stands, Trump may never actually be convicted in a New York white-collar fraud case in which he was convicted of 34 felonies. His for now Sentencing is scheduled for later this month.

A federal indictment against him has already been dismissed in Florida, sparing him a trial over whether he violated the US National Security Secrets Act. And he has made clear he would use his power as president to strengthen the federal case against him over his role in the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. That would result in a racketeering case pending in Georgia against Trump and others accused of trying to undermine the 2020 election results.

“Bro” Politics Overcomes Abortion Concerns

It was the first presidential election after the Supreme Court's Roe v. Wade had repealed and ended a woman's national right to have an abortion. It was also the first time a Republican presidential candidate overly courted men with a hypermasculine approach.

But the resulting “gender gap” wasn’t enough to bring Trump down.

According to AP VoteCast, about half of women supported Harris, while about half of men chose Trump. This appears to be broadly consistent with Biden and Trump's shares in 2020.

The Democrats are facing a leadership crisis and urgently need to regroup

Just a few months ago, Harris caused incredible excitement throughout the party. She raised more than a billion dollars seemingly overnight. She dominated her debate with Trump. She filled arenas. And just a few days ago, the Ellipse and National Mall drew a huge crowd.

But in the end it wasn't enough.

Meanwhile, Republicans have taken control of the Senate, ousting veteran Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio and pushing several other Democratic incumbents to the brink of defeat. The results will give Trump a significant advantage in pushing his agenda through Congress. Their only hope is to win a majority in the House of Representatives, made up mostly of key suburban districts in California and New York, but that was far from certain early Wednesday.

And either way, the results reduce Democrats' geographic footprint and, with Brown's defeat, weaken the kind of working-class voice that can counter Trump's appeal.

Trump has already succeeded in portraying the Democrats as culturally distant from Middle America. Now Democrats must ask themselves how to reconnect with parts of the country and parts of the electorate that rejected them.

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