Picking Kamala Harris and Tim Walz: Did Kamala Harris make a mistake by choosing Tim Walz as her running mate for the 2024 US election? Here's what Nate Silver says

In the context of the highly anticipated 2024 US presidential election, Kamala Harris' decision to name Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate was met with mixed reactions. Statistician Nate Silver, a well-known political analyst and founder of FiveThirtyEight, recently expressed his opinion on Harris' election in an online conversation. In an article for The New York Times, Silver explained why he thought Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro might have been a better candidate for the role. Here's what Silver had to say, along with the key takeaways from this decision.

Reasons why Nate Silver criticizes Walz as a running mate

Performance in debates and public image

Silver pointed to Walz's lackluster debate performance, particularly his Oct. 1 debate against Republican candidate JD Vance. Silver noted that Walz seemed “nervous” in the opening moments, which might stick in the audience's mind. This nervous demeanor and reluctance to aggressively confront Vance, whom Silver called “an objectively better debater,” did not go unnoticed.

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The Pennsylvania Factor and Shapiro's Potential

Silver was a supporter of Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and believed he could have solidified Harris' standing in the vital battleground state of Pennsylvania. Shapiro was leading the polls in Pennsylvania, a state without which no Democrat has won since 1948. The state also has a significant 19 votes in the Electoral College, making it crucial to the Democrats' victory. With Walz in the vice presidential spot, Harris has seen her lead dwindle, even falling slightly behind former President Trump by 0.1 points in recent polls, according to the latest FiveThirtyEight aggregation.

Election implications in swing states

Silver's comments underscore the potential risks Harris faces with Walz as her running mate, particularly in swing states. Here's a closer look at some critical conditions and their influence:Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes): Indispensable for Democrats since 1948; Harris' lead has shrunk.
Minnesota: Walz's home state, traditionally Democratic but a potential battleground. Other blue wall states: Walz's pick may not be as popular here as Shapiro's.

How this vice presidential pick could impact the election

Silver said Harris' election could impact Democrats' standing in other traditionally blue states. Although Pennsylvania, Minnesota and other key states are in play, Silver believes a stronger vice presidential candidate like Shapiro could have strengthened the ticket. Instead, Walz's hesitant public appearances and his perceived mediocrity in debates could weaken Harris' campaign and create potential vulnerabilities that the Trump-Vance ticket could exploit.

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Trump's choice for vice president: JD Vance

Interestingly, Silver didn't just criticize Harris' pick – he was also harsh on Trump's choice for vice president. Silver believes JD Vance was a poor choice, calling it a “misstep born of overconfidence.” Silver points out that Vance was chosen at a time when the Trump campaign underestimated the Democratic Party's resolve. Vance's popularity was low and he is considered one of the most unpopular vice presidents in recent history.

FAQs:

Why did Kamala Harris choose Tim Walz as her running mate for the 2024 election?
Kamala Harris picked Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to create a solid Midwestern Democratic presence and appeal to voters in key battleground states, particularly Minnesota.

Who would Nate Silver think would have been a better choice for Harris' running mate?
Silver expressed that Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro would have been a more strategic choice given his popularity in a critical swing state that Democrats cannot afford to lose.