Hurricane Rafael knocks out Cuba's power and is heading for the Gulf in a completely different way

CNN
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Hurricane Rafael moved away from Cuba on Thursday morning after hitting the island as a Category 3 hurricane and knocking out the power grid.

A significant shift in the storm's forecast direction means the threat is decreasing for the U.S. but increasing for Mexico's Gulf Coast.

Rafael – now a Category 2 hurricane – entered the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday evening after crossing Cuba and will move west across the southern Gulf through the weekend. The storm will rage in the Gulf for days and will not make landfall until early next week as a weaker storm.

Rafael's worst winds in Cuba ended early Thursday, but it will continue for most of the day as cleanup efforts begin. The hurricane, which led to the collapse of the island's power grid, was the fifth major Atlantic hurricane of the year and, at this end of the year, the strongest since 2020.

The hurricane rapidly strengthened before making landfall in Cuba late Wednesday afternoon. Rapid intensification is becoming more common as the atmosphere and oceans warm due to fossil fuel pollution; Rafael is the ninth storm to rapidly strengthen in the Atlantic basin this year.

Rafael dealt a devastating blow to Cuba, becoming the first Category 3 hurricane since Ian in 2022 and the second hurricane to hit the country in recent weeks.

The national power grid collapsed because of strong winds as Rafael approached the island, government officials said Wednesday.

“We had several load failures of the system in the western zone, which caused fluctuations in the frequency of the system and led to a complete collapse,” Félix Estrada Rodríguez, the head of the national headquarters of the Electric Union, told state television.

The full extent of the damage and its impact are unclear, but videos of the aftermath showed electricity infrastructure turned into a devastated mess and power poles toppled on the streets. According to state media, hundreds of technicians were mobilized on Thursday to restore power connections.

The country's power grid has collapsed several times, including when Hurricane Oscar struck in October, killing at least seven people.

Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel said on X that Havana, Mayabeque and Artemisa were badly affected by the storm. Diaz-Canel also announced that he would travel to the affected areas to personally oversee the recovery efforts.

Thousands of people in the western province of Artemisa were evacuated from coastal areas ahead of landfall, officials said on state television. Rafael's core landed east of Playa Majana in the province.

Cuban Civil Defense put the western and central provinces on alert and asked people there to restrict their freedom of movement. Havana's normally busy streets were largely empty Wednesday afternoon.

According to NOAA, Rafael is the strongest hurricane to hit the northwestern Caribbean in November since 2009.

When it first formed, Rafael, like five other storms earlier this year, appeared to be headed directly toward the United States. The National Hurricane Center's initial forecast placed portions of the Louisiana coast in the storm's forecast cone.

With the storm now in the Gulf, forecast certainty has finally increased and Rafael is expected to remain confined to the southern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days rather than moving north and approaching the US Gulf Coast.

As a result, the cone has shifted dramatically westward and, aside from parts of South Texas, the U.S. is largely out of danger.

Slight shifts in Rafael's final development are still possible in the coming days, but Mexico's Gulf Coast is most at risk. Storm-damaging winds will hit Rafael hard over the weekend and will likely return to tropical storm status early next week, well before it makes landfall.

Rafael will indirectly impact the US Gulf Coast by causing rough seas over the Gulf over the next few days. Dangerous currents are also possible.

When Rafael entered the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday evening, it was only the fifth hurricane to hit the Gulf of Mexico in November since 1966, according to hurricane expert Michael Lowry.

Chevron said it would move all personnel ashore and halt production on rigs in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of Rafael's approach. Shell and BP have pulled some non-essential employees from several drilling platforms, according to press releases from both companies.

CNN's Robert Shackelford, Taylor Ward, Brandon Miller, Steve Almasy, José Álvarez, Patrick Oppmann, Michael Rios, Dave Alsup, Hanna Park and Stefano Pozzebon contributed to this report.