Free agent pursuit of Juan Soto must determine Giants' offseason direction – NBC Sports Bay Area and California

SAN FRANCISCO — The Giants prepared for months to pursue Aaron Judge in the 2022 MLB offseason, laying out a detailed plan for his visit to San Francisco just before Thanksgiving. When they had to trade for Carlos Correa after Judge's return to the New York Yankees, they spent significantly less time impressing the free agent.

Some team members involved in the hunt against the judge didn't even know that Correa was the organization's new main target until news of a settlement leaked on social media – in anticipation of a physical trial, of course.

This offseason has taught the Giants many lessons, including one obvious one: When it comes to the very best free agents, the team that offers the biggest contract almost always wins.

There are exceptions, and Judge was one of them. He used the Giants and then the San Diego Padres to get what he wanted from the Yankees, then returned to the only team he ever knew. This season, Judge teamed with Juan Soto to lead the Yankees to their first World Series appearance in 15 years, and as Soto prepares to take his turn as the top free agent on the market, the Remind Giants of this lesson from 2022.

Correa agreed to hit Oracle Park because the Giants offered him the biggest deal by far. Sure, the shortstop would have stood at the podium and talked about how much he appreciated the franchise's history, the fan base and the commitment to winning, but the truth would have been that he was a giant because of their commitment to him 350 dollars to be paid million.

Soto expects to handle his own free agency similarly. This is not Judge and this is not Shohei Ohtani, who presents three teams with the same unique conditions but ultimately sticks to his plan to become a Los Angeles Dodger. Executives around the league believe Soto will land the biggest deal, and he did nothing to change that opinion after the Yankees lost the World Series.

When Soto was asked several times that evening about staying in New York, he repeatedly said he was looking forward to free agency and was open to all 30 teams. At Wednesday's general manager meetings, agent Scott Boras made it clear that the team is aiming as high as possible by comparing his client to the Mona Lisa.

“He literally has 15 more years of his best to offer,” Boras told reporters in San Antonio.

That actually makes the start of free agency relatively easy for the Giants and new president of baseball operations Buster Posey.

The first thing they need to do this offseason is decide whether to be there or not. Are they willing to make an offer well above $500 million early in the process? Will they still wait when Soto and Boras start talking about $600 or $700 million that Ohtani got, even though almost the entire amount was deferred?

Are they ready to take on not only the Yankees, but also Steve Cohen and the New York Mets? Are they willing to outbid Cohen if necessary? Are they willing to go a little crazy to land a future Hall of Famer?

Only a few people know these answers, especially the new man at the top. Posey not only attends daily roster meetings, but also board meetings that discuss the Giants' finances and overall plans.

If San Francisco is willing to stick around until the end and offer the biggest contract possible, they will once again spend a winter in the middle of the rumor mill and should be aggressive from the start. When the previous regime missed out on Bryce Harper, a big issue was how late Farhan Zaidi joined the bid. The feeling from Harper's camp was that the Giants were always a step behind the Philadelphia Phillies.

If the Giants don't want to be with Soto at the helm, they should probably pivot quickly. There's too much to do with this roster to wait weeks for a superstar who will only come to San Francisco if the contract offer is greater than anyone else's.

Two years ago, while awaiting Judge's decision, the Giants agreed to a three-year deal with outfielder Mitch Haniger, but that was a much different situation. Haniger was only guaranteed $43.5 million, a deal that could very easily fit into the payroll even if Judge later said yes.

If the Giants don't fully commit to winning the Soto bid, they risk missing out on other opportunities to improve the roster. The largest deal in franchise history remains the one Posey signed in 2012, and it's hard to imagine an organization with that track record signing a Soto AND a Corbin Burnes, a Blake Snell, or a Willy Adames. If anyone repeats the Dodgers' 2023 offseason – a billion with two players – the odds are overwhelming that it will be Cohen.

The Giants need Soto for many reasons, both on and off the field, but they have other gaps as well. They could use a high-end starter after Snell opted out. They need a shortstop who can push Tyler Fitzgerald to second and make the infield a strength. They could probably use a little more energy at first base while they wait for Bryce Eldridge to arrive. If Soto isn't wearing the orange and black, they need someone else to provide more production in the outfield.

In 2022, after Judge said no and the Giants moved on from Correa, they made late moves for Michael Conforto, Taylor Rogers and Luke Jackson. Add Haniger, Ross Stripling and Sean Manaea to the mix and it's going to be a very expensive offseason, one without a star and one that's a disaster.

Last year, the Giants responded to Ohtani and Yamamoto's disappointment by signing Jung Hoo Lee and then decided to be patient. It was a logical plan and they ended up with Matt Chapman, Jorge Soler and Snell in the spring, but they definitely regretted not putting the puzzle pieces together a few months earlier.

This time around, Posey has the financial flexibility to be aggressive and do the heavy lifting early, but first he has to make that all-important decision.

The Giants have finished second too many times in the last decade. Are they willing to write down a number that guarantees something like this won't happen again? Because if not, they should make that decision now and spend the next month finding an alternative way to add key pieces to the roster while other big market teams wait to see where the bidding war for Soto goes.

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