College Football Playoff, bowl projections after Week 11

There have been some significant developments in the college football postseason world over the last five days. First we had the initial College Football Playoff committee’s rankings, which were released Tuesday night. Then came Saturday, when we had big games and key results to shake things up.

No. 4 Miami fell to unranked Georgia Tech, with the Hurricanes suffering their first loss of the season. No. 3 Georgia was soundly beaten by No. 16 Ole Miss at Oxford, Mississippi, and No. 11 Alabama posted an impressive road win by routing No. 15 LSU at Death Valley.

No. 8 Indiana and No. 9 BYU both remained unbeaten, but neither win came easily. And with Iowa State suffering its second loss in a row, No. 20 Colorado has emerged as a legitimate threat to make the Big 12 championship game.

What does it all mean for the College Football Playoff and the overall bowl picture?

In the new, expanded 12-team playoff, the five highest-ranked conference champions will make the field along with the next seven highest-ranked teams. The four highest-ranked conference champions will be awarded first-round byes, with the other eight teams meeting at the campus sites of the Nos. 5-8 seeds.

From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with this season’s national championship game scheduled for Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 36-game slate of bowls, from the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 14 to the Bahamas Bowl on Jan. 4.

We’re here for all of it.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the CFP will play out, every week until the actual matchups are set on Selection Day (Dec. 8).

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Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season

College Football Playoff

First-round games

Dec. 20-21 — ABC/ESPN or TNT Sports*
Bonagura: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State

Bonagura: No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 11 Georgia at No. 6 Indiana

Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Tennessee
Schlabach: No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 Penn State

Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Tennessee

* Specific times and networks for each game TBD

First-round breakdown

Bonagura: Up until this point, these projections have been guided by our own thoughts on what should happen. However, now that there are official College Football Playoff rankings out in the world, it makes sense to shift the approach to incorporate the committee’s public views.

One interesting development this week will be to see how much the committee punishes Miami after its loss to Georgia Tech. The Hurricanes are 9-1 but don’t have a win against a ranked opponent and seemed to get a brand pump in the CFP rankings last week when they debuted at No. 4. Now that they have a loss, it seems possible they could fall behind No. 13 SMU, which remains unbeaten in the ACC, with its only loss coming to undefeated BYU. Another possibility is that Miami or SMU could come in behind No. 12 Boise State, which would give the Broncos the first-round bye.

Here’s one chaos scenario to keep in mind. What happens if Army and Boise State win out and the Big 12 champion or ACC champion has two or three losses? It’s possible to draw something up that will see either of those conferences shut out all together.

Schlabach: Miami’s stunning loss at Georgia Tech and Georgia’s loss at Ole Miss left me scratching my head for much of the night. I’m not exactly sure what the CFP committee will do with the Hurricanes in their second rankings Tuesday night — and I’ll admit I wasn’t certain what to do with them either. I had the Hurricanes at No. 4 this week, dropping them behind unbeaten BYU, but I could see SMU jumping Miami before the end of the regular season.

I went with five SEC teams in my top 12: Texas, Tennessee, Alabama, Ole Miss and Georgia. Before you start screaming about SEC bias, I don’t think five will be there after this coming week. Georgia’s home game against Tennessee on Saturday is basically an elimination contest for both squads. The Bulldogs would probably get in the CFP with losses at Alabama and Ole Miss, but they can’t survive three defeats. Tennessee has an Alabama victory in its cap, but that’s about it because NC State and Oklahoma have played poorly since losing to the Volunteers.

I strongly considered SMU and Notre Dame over Georgia for the 11th spot. The Irish steamrolled Florida State on Saturday, just like everyone else has done this season. The Fighting Irish have a couple of quality victories over Texas A&M and Louisville, but they also have the most unsightly loss, 16-14 to Northern Illinois at home.

CFP quarterfinals

Tuesday, Dec. 31

CFP Quarterfinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Miami
Schlabach: No. 11 Georgia vs. No. 3 BYU

Wednesday, Jan. 1

CFP Quarterfinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 BYU
Schlabach: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Miami

CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 Indiana vs. No. 1 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Oregon

CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Tennessee vs. No. 2 Texas
Schlabach: No. 10 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Texas

Quarterfinals breakdown

Bonagura: BYU woke up today undefeated at 9-0, but the Cougars haven’t exactly looked like a team that will seriously compete in the playoff. Twice with less than two minutes to go Saturday night, it looked like they had lost to Utah, only to have a fortunate timeout and a defensive holding penalty keep them alive, setting up a game-winning field goal. A few weeks ago against Oklahoma State, the Cougars also needed a game-saving drive on their final possession to win. Those two opponents are a combined 1-12 in the Big 12.

For a few weeks, the possibility of the SEC getting just three teams in was on the table, but that no longer feels likely. Mark has five SEC teams in this week, but I don’t think there will be that many ahead of Notre Dame, which debuted at No. 10, if the Irish win out and finish 11-1. (They have Virginia, Army and USC left.)

Schlabach: Again, I don’t think there will be five SEC teams in the final bracket. That wouldn’t sit well with the rest of the country, even if those five squads were most deserving. I had four SEC teams playing in the semifinals, and I’d give Georgia a good chance at defeating BYU in the Fiesta Bowl, despite the Bulldogs’ inconsistent play this season.

Texas-Ole Miss would be another intriguing semifinal with two solid quarterbacks in Jaxson Dart and Quinn Ewers, and Longhorns backup Arch Manning facing his grandfather Archie’s (and uncle Eli’s) alma mater. I had Texas taking down Ole Miss.

On the other side of the bracket, I think Ohio State is too deep and talented for Miami. Alabama had the most impressive performance of the weekend in its shellacking of LSU on the road. I’m sure Crimson Tide coach Kalen DeBoer would love another chance to take on Oregon in the semifinals.

play

Finebaum calls LSU’s performance vs. Alabama ’embarrassing’

Paul Finebaum blasts LSU for its poor performance vs. Alabama.

CFP semifinals, national championship game

Thursday, Jan. 9

CFP Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 2 Texas
Schlabach: No. 11 Georgia vs. No. 2 Texas

Friday, Jan. 10

CFP Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon

Monday, Jan. 20

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Texas vs. No. 1 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 2 Texas vs. No. 1 Oregon

National championship breakdown

Bonagura: Things are setting up well for the Big Ten, which would benefit from the quarterfinal matchups arguably giving the No. 5 and No. 6 teams easier matchups than the top two seeds in that round. I haven’t gotten on my soap box in a few weeks about the need to consider reseeding, but it feels appropriate here.

For top-seeded Oregon to reach this stage in the hypothetical, it would have to beat Indiana. The No. 5 seed, in this case Ohio State, will likely play a team ranked lower than No. 8 in the CFP rankings. It doesn’t make sense. The system should reward the top seeds, not punish them.

Schlabach: I have two SEC teams (Georgia and Texas) and two Big Ten teams (Ohio State and Oregon) meeting in the semifinals. I don’t have much confidence in either of the SEC teams, but I think Oregon and Ohio State are two of the top four teams in the FBS.

Interestingly, both semifinal games would be a rematch of two compelling regular-season contests. Georgia manhandled then-No. 1 Texas 30-15 on the road on Oct. 19. The Bulldogs had seven sacks and 11 tackles for loss in what was one of their better defensive performances of the season.

Oregon climbed to No. 1 after its 32-31 victory over Ohio State on Oct. 12. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel rallied the Ducks from a 6-point deficit in the fourth quarter. I’m sure the Buckeyes would love to make things right in a potential Cotton Bowl semifinal game. I have Oregon and Texas playing in the national championship game.

Complete bowl season schedule

Saturday, Dec. 14

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Arkansas State

Tuesday, Dec. 17

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas State vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. North Texas

Wednesday, Dec. 18

Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: South Florida vs. Arkansas State
Schlabach: Miami (Ohio) vs. South Alabama

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UCLA vs. UNLV
Schlabach: California vs. UNLV

Thursday, Dec. 19

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
7 p.m., ESPN2
Bonagura: Liberty vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: Liberty vs. Georgia Southern

Friday, Dec. 20

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Buffalo vs. UConn
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. Marshall

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. South Florida

Monday, Dec. 23

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana-Monroe vs. Western Michigan
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Ohio vs. San José State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State

Tuesday, Dec. 24

Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Hawai’i

Thursday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. Michigan
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Rutgers

Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Baylor
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Texas Tech

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Northern Illinois vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. James Madison

Friday, Dec. 27

Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon or 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana vs. Michigan State
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Memphis

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
Noon or 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. Navy
Schlabach: TCU vs. Army

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
7 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Arkansas
Schlabach: West Virginia vs. UConn

DirecTV Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m.
Bonagura: SMU vs. Colorado
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Arizona State

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
10:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Missouri vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Missouri vs. UCLA

Saturday, Dec. 28

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Tulane vs. Syracuse
Schlabach: Tulane vs. Georgia Tech

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York City)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Wisconsin
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Wisconsin

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Colorado State vs. Washington
Schlabach: Colorado State vs. Texas State

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Iowa State
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Iowa State

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Sam Houston
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. San José State

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Boston College vs. Army
Schlabach: Duke vs. Navy

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
7:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Washington State
Schlabach: Colorado vs. Washington State

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: James Madison vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Cincinnati

Monday, Dec. 30

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. LSU
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Vanderbilt

Tuesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Illinois vs. South Carolina

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Louisville vs. California
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Washington

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Georgia
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Texas A&M

Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Arkansas

Thursday, Jan. 2

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: SMU vs. LSU

Friday, Jan. 3

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Boston College

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. Rutgers
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Minnesota

Saturday, Jan. 4

Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
11 a.m., ESPN2
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Sam Houston vs. Bowling Green