Warriors vs. Mavericks prediction: odds, expert picks, projected starting lineups, betting trends and stats

Klay Thompson makes his expected return as the Dallas Mavericks take on the Golden State Warriors.

The Golden State Warriors are 8-2 this season and have won six of their last seven games. Golden State ended a five-game road trip (4-1 record) with a win at Oklahoma City (127-116) on Sunday. This is Golden State's fourth home game as they are 2-1 this season.

Dallas is 5-5 this year and has lost three of its last four games. The Mavericks have lost two straight to the Suns (14-113) and Nuggets (122-120). This is only the fourth road game for Dallas, who are 1-2 on the road. The Mavericks will be without starters Derek Lively and PJ Washington ahead of this matchup.

With that said, let's dive into the matchup and offer some information and maybe a sweat or two.

We have all the information and analysis you need to know before the game, including the latest information on how to reach the opening tip, projected lineups, current team performances, player stats and of course our predictions, tips and best bets for the game from our modeling tools and our team of experts.

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Details and how to watch Mavericks @ Warriors

● Date: Tuesday, November 12, 2024
● Time: 10:00 PM ET
● Location: Chase Center
● City: San Francisco, California
● TV/Streaming: TNT

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Mavericks @ Warriors odds

The latest odds from Tuesday afternoon:
● Moneyline: Golden State Warriors (-140), Dallas Mavericks (+120)
● Spread: Golden State -2.5
● Total: 234.5

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Projected starting lineups for Golden State and Dallas

Dallas Mavericks (5-5)

PG Luka Doncic
SG Kyrie Irving
SF Klay Thompson
PF Maxi Kleber – PJ Washington is out
C Daniel Gafford – Derek Lively is out

Golden State Warriors (8-2)

PG Stephen Curry
SG De'Anthony Melton
SF Andrew Wiggins (daily)
PF Draymond Green
C Trayce Jackson Davis

Top betting trends and insights to know ahead of Mavericks @ Warriors

• Golden State is 8-2 ATS, the second-best mark in the NBA.

• Dallas is 4-5-1 ATS this season and 1-0-1 ATS as an underdog on the road.

• Dallas is 6-4 against the minors this year.

• Golden State is 7-3 to the over this year.

• Luka Doncic has scored 30 or more points in three of the last five games.

• Steph Curry scored a season-high 36 points in his final game.

• Klay Thompson scored 16 points or fewer in seven straight games, following 18, 19 and 22 points in his first three games with Dallas.

• Draymond Green has scored a total of 14 points in the last two games and has hit four three-pointers in that time.

Notable player props for Mavericks @ Warriors

High point props

• Luka Doncic O/U 29.5 points

• Stephen Curry O/U 25.5 points

• Kyrie Irving O/U 24.5 points

• Klay Thompson O/U 15.5 points

Highest rebound props

• Luka Doncic O/U 8.5 rebounds

• Daniel Gafford O/U 6.5 rebounds

• Draymond Green O/U 5.5 rebounds

Highest assist props

• Luka Doncic O/U 8.5 assists

• Stephen Curry O/U 5.5 assists

• Draymond Green O/U 5.5 assists

Expert picks and predictions for Mavericks @ Warriors

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NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) wants Klay Thompson to surpass his 18.5 points + rebounds mark in his return to Chase Center:

“While Klay Thompson has scored 16 points or fewer in seven straight games, the excitement and hype surrounding tonight's game should make for a special night for the former Warrior.”

In the last three games, Thompson has had 9.0 rebound chances per game and converted 5.0 per game. While his recent 5-for-20 (25%) three-point shooting over that span is a bit of a concern, Thompson will play a larger role on offense with PJ Washington and Dereck Lively sidelined.

I like to see Thompson surpass his 18.5 points + rebounds after going 6-1 against the minors in his last seven games.”

Here are the best bets our model predicts for the Mavericks and the Warriors:

· Money line: NBC Sports finds value in winning Dallas in ML (+120)
· Spread: NBC Sports has low confidence in Dallas +2.5 in the spread
· In total: NBC Sports has little confidence in a game with a total score UNDER 234.5

Want more NBA best bets and predictions from our team of experts and tools? Check this out EXPERT NBA Predictions NBC Sports page for moneyline, spread and overall picks for each of the games on today's calendar!

Follow our experts on social media to stay up to date with the latest staff content:

· Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
· Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
· Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
· Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)