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The outcome between Mike Tyson and Jake Paul depends on how long the fight lasts

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Whether Mike Tyson or Jake Paul emerges victorious from their fight probably depends on how long it lasts.

Both men appear to be aware of this, too, as they head into their eight-round heavyweight bout on Friday at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

Conventional wisdom: The shorter the fight, the better for Tyson. At 58 years old, his stamina could be an issue.

Or the longer the fight, the better for Paul. At 27, it would do him good to tire out the former champion.

So it should have been no surprise that Paul offered Tyson $5 million if the former heavyweight champion could get past the fourth round.

It should also come as no surprise that Tyson said he wanted $20 million. (If Tyson didn't make it past the fourth round, Paul explained, he would have to get a tattoo that read, “I love Jake.” However, the tattoo should more appropriately read, “I fell for a really bad bet.”' )

What if the fight ends before the fourth round??

The first rounds are the most dangerous for Tyson's opponents. He doesn't like to waste time.

Of his 44 career knockouts, 22 came in the first round. Seven made it to the second round, three to the third and two to the fourth. Michael Spinks only lasted 91 seconds and Marvis Frazier only lasted 30 seconds.

“He doesn’t want to take the long route,” Joe Cortez, who refereed Tyson’s last pro fight against Kevin McBride, told USA TODAY Sports. Yes, Tyson is almost two decades removed from that fight in 2005, and Paul is no Michael Spinks or Marvis Frazier.

Videos also show Tyson training hard and appearing to be in great shape. That could be crucial considering Tyson said he expects Paul to “run like a thief.” But if Tyson catches Paul before the end of the fourth round, he will likely still have the stamina to deliver a knockout punch.

“If Jake Paul can’t keep Mike Tyson off him in the early rounds, it will be an early night,” said Ann Wolfe, a former boxing champion.

But an early finish is no guarantee of a Tyson victory. Paul has a strong right hand and has warned he will use it if Tyson charges at him. Teddy Atlas, who trained Tyson as a teenager, envisioned the possibility that Paul would throw a straight right at the same time Tyson was throwing his signature left hook.

“The best shot Paul has is a straight right hand,” Atlas said. “A straight right hand will still throw a left hook if the left hook is thrown at the wrong time.”

What happens if the fight goes beyond the fourth round?

Of Tyson's 50 wins, only nine of those fights went beyond six rounds. As boxing historian Mike Silver said, “If a decent fighter took him past the fourth or fifth round, he wasn't as effective as a knockout boxer.”

Tyson ended his last professional fight while sitting in his chair after the sixth round, and Cortez, the retired referee, said the problem was Tyson's conditioning. Could Tyson possibly have more stamina at 58 than he did at 38?

“I think Mike is going to try to get rid of (Paul) as quickly as possible,” Cortez said. “He will think about his last fight.”

This is exactly why Paul will try to drag Tyson into the final rounds. Wolfe wouldn't be shocked if it happened.

“He learned to box better than people think he can box,” she said. “People don’t understand that. “And he’s got those young legs and that will to win.”

A longer fight could not only frustrate Tyson, but would also test the former champion's endurance and potentially leave him vulnerable to Paul's knockout power.

Remember, Paul scored seven knockouts in eleven fights and knocked out each of the ten boxers he faced.

Tyron Woodley, the former UFC champion, said Paul looked tired during their second fight. But Woodley added: “Even when he was tired and huffing and puffing, he could bite down his mouth guard and throw a hard-hitting punch.”

Paul knocked out Woodley in the sixth round.

Of course, it is never really safe to be in the ring with Tyson. Of his 44 knockouts, three occurred in the sixth round, two in the seventh and one in the tenth.

“Mike Tyson might have a look back,” Woodley said. “You know what I mean? “We all know the longer he's in there, the more he might remember.”

Remember how to win.

Follow Josh Peter on social media @joshlpeter11

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