Intel leak shows Israel excluding US from military operations as tensions rise between allies

WASHINGTON — The leak last weekend of two Pentagon documents assessing Israel's readiness to attack Iran showed how little the Harris-Biden administration knows about the U.S. ally's future plans, experts tell The Post .

The FBI confirmed on Tuesday that it was investigating the leak of the documents to Telegram last week via the account @Middle_East_Spectator, which has been shown to have posted pro-Iranian content. The papers were marked “top secret” and contained material dated October 15th and 16th.

While any intelligence leak is troubling, the problem in this case lies not so much in the secrets exposed, but rather in the revelation that the White House is broadly at odds with the Jewish state, said Alex Plitsas, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and former Pentagon employee officially.

“What was revealed in the comment to [one of the documents] is that we can't judge that yet [Israeli] Intentions, which basically means we don't know what that is [Israel is] “We plan to do this and we are monitoring where there are indicators and warnings that will help us determine their readiness and what they may be planning,” Plitsas told The Post.

U.S. relations with Israel have been strained after the White House repeatedly called for restraint in the Benjamin Netanyahu government's response to the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack that killed an estimated 1,200 people in southern Israel.

The lack of communication means the US is missing critical information from Israel – and is therefore less prepared to predict and deal with the consequences of future actions, according to EJ Kimball, senior policy director at the US Israel Education Association.

“This could be dangerous for the United States,” Kimball explained, “because if there is an Iranian response, we may not be able to predict what type of response Iran will take until Israel knows what it plans to do.”

Meanwhile, the leak itself is still expected to further damage trust between Washington and Jerusalem.

“What we should be aware of right now is the likelihood that Israel will keep the U.S. a little further at arm's length in its response,” Kimball said. “Without that intelligence — those eyes and ears on the ground — it will be detrimental to our interests in the region, including our troops.”

“There is a significant lack of operational trust between Israel and the United States,” he added. “It is now a very dangerous situation in which the next government must work to restore that trust.”

While the documents provided some insight into Israel's ongoing actions, such as repositioning weapons systems, veteran observers in the Middle East said the greatest damage to future operations would come if adversaries knew what the Pentagon was looking for in advance of an attack .

“If you are Iran and you see how the U.S. assesses Israel's readiness for an attack, even if Iran is preparing an attack, you can reasonably assume that the U.S. will also apply the same methodology to others who may be preparing attacks.” Kimball said. “It is dangerous for the US side that we have revealed some of our sensitive methods to the enemy.

“Knowing how we do this puts us at risk and limits our ability to adequately assess what might happen in the world in order to predict.” [an attack]”, he added.

“If Vladimir Putin ate a banana for lunch, the fact that it was a banana is not exactly top secret information,” Plitsas explained. “But when you know that we're watching what he eats, or that there are three people who knew he was about to eat a banana for lunch, that becomes the tricky part, maybe not so much the information itself.”

While the source of the leak remained unclear until Tuesday, the leaker's motives clearly appear to be to help Iran.

“This undermines our relationship with an ally, gives an advantage to our adversaries and is a blatant violation of the National Security Act and the dissemination of classified information that reveals sources and methods,” Plitsas said.

“This was just outrageous and truly irresponsible, at a very dangerous time when we are very close to war, in a place where we do not want to go to war.”