According to CNN data guru, there is a 60 percent chance the election will end in an “electoral college breakup.”

CNN data expert Harry Enten said there's a good chance the election will actually end with the winner receiving over 300 Electoral College votes, even if on the surface it's a close race.

CNN news anchor John Berman noted that the election appeared to be “historically close,” but asked, “What if it isn't?”

He then turned to CNN's senior political data reporter Enten to break down the numbers, noting: “As close as it is, and we believe it is very close right now, that also means that if change things, even a little bit, it’s not really close.”

“It’s not,” Ducks agreed. “So we've talked about the idea that there will be a historically close election. I guess I could have said it on this particular broadcast, but actually – will the winner get at least 300 electoral votes? The answer is: majority [chance] Yes.”

He then explained how there could be a “relative collapse” in the 2024 election.

“There is a … 60 percent chance that the winner of this election will receive at least 300 electoral votes, versus only a 40 percent chance that the winner will ultimately receive fewer than 300 electoral votes,” he said. “For all the talk we've had about this election being historically close, and it is, there's a good chance the winner will actually pull off a relative blowout in the Electoral College.”

“Oh my God, you’re giving me hair pain,” Berman replied. “How can it be so close, but still most likely a pretty big win in the Electoral College.”

“If you look at the seven key swing states, the seven closest states in all of them, the margin is currently under 2 points – under 2 points – but remember, the polls are not perfect, my dear friends,” Enten warns . “On average since 1972, the average error in key swing states in battleground states is 3.4 points.”

Enten then created electoral maps that showed how either former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris could end up winning over 300 Electoral College votes.

“Based on what we are seeing with the average polling error and how close the states are at this point, if all states move in one direction, one of these candidates could achieve a relative breakthrough in the Electoral College with over 300 electoral votes,” explained he.

Enten emphasized that battleground states tend to break in one direction.

“History tells us that it is highly likely that all swing state poll errors move in one direction,” the poll expert said. “So in 2012, 92% of states moved in Obama’s direction.”

“In 2016, 83% of swing states closed because the polls were below Donald Trump, of course we all remember that. And what about 2020? “100% of the swing state polling averages underestimated Donald Trump, and so he did better than a lot of people thought,” he said.

“So this time, don’t be surprised at the swing state polls if they underestimate one candidate, they underestimate everyone in the states, and that would lead to relative failure in the Electoral College if one of the candidates wins “at least 300 electoral votes.” , he concluded.