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Quiet Atlantic basin. Tropical threat in the Caribbean?

Spread to Florida is possible, but most storms move toward Central America or Cuba/Bahamas this time of year.

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The good news in the tropics continues, although conditions in the Caribbean could favor the development of Tropical Storm Patty late next week.

The same cannot be said for the Eastern Pacific, where Hurricane Kristy has weakened from a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 150 mph to a Category 3 storm with winds of 125 mph as of 11 a.m. EDT.

The National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map shows no disturbances in the Atlantic basin on Friday and is not expected for the next seven days. However, keep in mind that conditions can change at any time and residents – especially in hard-hit Florida – should always keep an eye on the tropics.

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According to AccuWeather, there is now a high chance of a tropical depression or storm forming in late October and early November as forecasters focus on the western and central Caribbean.

The next named storms of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be Patty and Rafael.

The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30, although storms can and have formed after that date and even before the official start of hurricane season on June 1.

Here is the latest announcement from the NHC from Friday, October 25, 11 a.m.:

Tropical Storm Patty? Will Florida have another storm or hurricane?

AccuWeather forecasters are focusing on the western and central Caribbean, where the next tropical threat is expected to emerge. There is a moderate chance of a tropical depression or storm forming in these waters in late October and early November.

“I know there will be showers and thunderstorms in this zone next week. The question is wind shear. If there is low wind shear, which we expect, I think a tropical depression or storm will form,” AccuWeather chief said on-air meteorologist Bernie Rayno.

“Tropical storms that form in this area in late October and early November tend to track into Central America or possibly north-northeast toward Cuba, Hispaniola and the Bahamas,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.

“However, a path to Florida or the southeastern U.S. mainland is not out of the question at this early date,” and residents in the southeastern U.S. as well as the Caribbean and Mexico are urged to keep an eye on the tropics and stay prepared.

What else is there and how likely are they to intensify?

As of 8 a.m., the National Hurricane Center recorded no tropical disturbances in the Atlantic basin, which consists of the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

Although there's nothing on the tropical outlook map, NHC forecasters said there are three tropical waves out there, including one in the Caribbean:

  • Western Atlantic: A tropical wave is located just east of the Windward Islands, extending south of 15N with an axis near 58W and moving westward at 11 to 17 mph.
  • Caribbean Sea: A tropical wave is located in the central Caribbean and extending south of 18 N with an axis near 74 W. It is moving west at 11 mph.
  • Near Africa: A new tropical wave appeared off the coast of Africa this morning. It extends from 08N to 19N with an axis just east of the Cape Verde Islands. The wave moves at 6 to 11 miles per hour.

Who is likely to be affected?

Meteorologists urge all residents to continue to monitor the tropics and always be prepared.

Hurricane Kristy is weakening in the Pacific

At 11 a.m. EDT, Hurricane Kristy was 1,085 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.

Maximum sustained winds are 125 mph and the hurricane is moving west-northwest at 14 mph.

Steady to rapid weakening is expected over the next few days, with Kristy expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Sunday.

Effects: Waves caused by Kristy will impact portions of the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula starting today and continuing through the weekend. These waves can create life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Hurricane Kristy spaghetti models

Special note on spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all of them are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the four or five best-performing models to create its forecasts.

Weather warnings and warnings are issued in Florida

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When is Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

Countdown Clock: When does hurricane season end?

Interactive map: Hurricanes and tropical storms that passed near your city

What's next?

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(This story has been updated to add new information.)

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