Presidential Showdown Between Harris and Trump: Dead Despite Ten Days Until Election Day

With ten days until Election Day, two new major national polls suggest Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump are in a dead heat in the race to succeed President Biden in the White House.

Since time is ticking quickly, the two nominees and their fellow candidates will be spread out across the key battleground states this weekend.

On the trail

Trump begins Saturday with a rally in Novi, Michigan, a suburb of Detroit. Later in the day, he will campaign in another of the crucial swing states – Pennsylvania – while holding a rally in State College, home of Penn State University.

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Senator JD Vance of Ohio, the Republican vice presidential candidate, begins his day in Atlanta before holding campaign events in Erie and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

Top Trump surrogate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who ended his lengthy run for the White House and endorsed Trump, and former Democratic presidential candidate and former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, who switched from an independent to a Republican just days ago, will each other unite with Trump in the swing state of North Carolina. And Elon Musk, the Tesla and Space X magnate and richest person in the world, is running for Trump in Pennsylvania.

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Harris will join former first lady Michelle Obama, arguably the country's most popular Democrat, at a campaign rally in Kalamazoo, Michigan, on Saturday. The stop comes two days after the vice president shared the stage in suburban Atlanta with former President Obama.

Former President Obama gestures to Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, after introducing her as a speaker during a campaign event Thursday in Clarkston, Georgia. (AP Photo/Mike Stewart)

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the Democratic vice presidential candidate, is making two stops in battleground Arizona on Saturday, first in Window Rock and later in Phoenix.

In a sign of the important role Pennsylvania plays, with its 19 electoral votes up for grabs, first lady Jill Biden is campaigning for Harris in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, while progressive champion Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, a two-time runner-up, is running for Harris for the nomination of Democrats, stumps for Harris in Erie.

On Sunday, Harris will make several retail stops in Philadelphia. Trump will hold a rally at Madison Square Garden in New York City, the media capital of the world.

According to Trump's campaign team, the former president, who has long wanted to hold a rally at the iconic New York venue, will make his closing statement during the rally. And the campaign will feature a backstage fundraiser for major donors, with top-tier access costing $924,600.

Survey position

It doesn't get any closer than that.

Two major national polls conducted Sunday through Wednesday and released Friday suggest Harris and Trump are in a dead heat.

Former President Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, laughs after speaking during a campaign rally in Las Vegas on Thursday. (AP/Alex Brandon)

First making headlines is a New York Times/Siena College poll showing the Democratic and GOP presidential candidates tied at 48%.

That's a change from a previous poll earlier this month that showed Harris with a slight three-point lead.

The candidates polled with 47% of likely voters nationally, according to a CNN poll. The previous poll, from late September, showed the vice president with a razor-thin lead of one point.

However, there were warning signs for both candidates in the two polls.

Harris lost her advantage over Trump in both polls.

After he replaced President Biden as the 2024 Democratic leadership in July, the vice president's positive ratings skyrocketed. But they have been steadily declining over the past month.

Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, speaks during a campaign event at Riverside Park in Grand Rapids, Michigan, on October 18. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

Another warning sign for Harris is polling that suggests her support among Black voters in the 2020 election is below Biden's level.

For Trump, his support among white voters is synonymous with his standing in the 2020 election, when he lost the White House to Biden.

And the former president still has a significant deficit compared to the vice president when it comes to being trustworthy and caring about people.

While national polls are being closely watched, the race for the White House is not based on the national popular vote. It's a fight for the states and their votes.

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And the latest polls in the seven crucial battleground states whose razor-thin results decided Biden's victory over Trump in 2020 and will likely decide whether Harris or Trump wins the 2024 election are largely within the margin of error.

The latest Fox News national poll showed Trump with a two-point lead, but Harris with a six-point lead among respondents in all seven battleground states.

Cash Dash

Former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris (Fox News)

While there is some margin of error in the polls, there is a clear frontrunner in the battle for campaign funds, another important indicator in presidential politics. And it's Harris.

According to the latest figures filed by the parties' two major presidential campaigns with the Federal Election Commission, Harris raised $97 million in the first half of October.

That far exceeds the $16 million the Trump campaign said it raised in the first half of this month.

Both campaigns use a number of affiliated fundraising committees to raise money. And taking those into account, Trump narrowed the gap, but lost $176 million to $97 million in the first two weeks of this month.

The new filings also make clear that the Harris campaign continues to spend far more than the Trump campaign.

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In the first 16 days of October, Democratic presidential nominee Trump's campaign spent between $166 million and $99 million, with paid media accounting for the highest spending in both campaigns.

However, Harris ended the period with more money in her coffers. As of October 16, it had $119 million in cash on hand, while Trump had $36 million. When joint fundraising committees are also included, Harris has a cash advantage of $240 million to $168 million.

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