ESPN updates Top 25 poll for Week 10

Another active weekend on the gridiron resulted in some notable changes on the ESPN top 25 college football rankings as we move into the Week 10 games. Here are the teams moving up, and moving down, in the polls as we head into November football.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

Where do things stand in the ESPN top 25 college football rankings this week?

Rankings change: Up 6

Win total prediction: 6.8 games

The Hogs piled up over 600 yards of offense for the sixth time this season in a rout against Mississippi State and now look ahead to a tough two-week stretch with Ole Miss and Texas both coming in.

Rankings change: Down 4

Win total prediction: 8.3 games

ESPN’s computers keep the Tigers in their rankings despite them falling out of most others following a 34-0 loss at Alabama that proved this team is a shadow of its 2023 self, but these analytics are still projecting 8 wins going forward.

Rankings change: Down 1

Win total prediction: 5.7 games

Billy Napier’s Gators are above .500 after knocking off Kentucky last week but head into a brutal final stretch of the season against Georgia, at Texas, against LSU, and then Ole Miss.

Rankings change: Up 2

Win total prediction: 8.7 games

A win over Cincinnati at home moves the Buffaloes to a 4-1 mark in Big 12 play and gives the program 6 wins for the first time since 2016, an important step forward in Deion Sanders’ second year on the job.

Rankings change: Up 2

Win total prediction: 6.9 games

Idle this past weekend, the Gamecocks are 2-3 in SEC play, but ESPN’s computer model favors them by almost 12 points per game going forward, hence this ranking.

Rankings change: Up 1

Win total prediction: 11.3 games

Ashton Jeanty ran for 128 yards against a tough UNLV defense, and the Broncos passed an important road test to stay at one loss, by 3 against now-No. 1 Oregon, and in the thick of the Group of Five’s playoff conversation.

Rankings change: None

Win total prediction: 10.6 games

Coming off their idle weekend, the undefeated Cyclones sit in second place in the Big 12 standings and have a real shot at making Arlington with a winnable schedule leading into the finale against Kansas State.

Rankings change: None

Win total prediction: 10.1 games

A go-ahead field goal helped lead the Wildcats to a narrow 2-point win against rival Kansas and a third-place position in the Big 12 standings behind the nation’s No. 8 rushing attack.

Rankings change: None

Win total prediction: 7.6 games

Off this week, the Cardinals are at 3 losses, but still in the ESPN rankings owing to the computer projecting this offense to be almost 2 touchdowns better than an “average opponent,” but there are tough games against Clemson and Pittsburgh upcoming.

Rankings change: None

Win total prediction: 10.3 games

Despite handing the ball over 6 times and needing a failed 2-point conversion to escape, the Mustangs took down Duke on the road and moved to 4-0 in ACC play with a date against undefeated Pittsburgh next.

Rankings change: None

Win total prediction: 6.7 games

USC moved to 2-4 in Big Ten play with a win over Rutgers at home, but this team is an afterthought in other rankings as Lincoln Riley has still failed to find the answer for this program.

Rankings change: Down 2

Win total prediction: 8.5 games

Garrett Nussmeier led this productive LSU passing attack to a first-half lead at Texas A&M, but his 3 second-half interceptions were enough to drop this team in its first SEC loss with a date against Alabama at home in two weeks.

Rankings change: None

Win total prediction: 9.9 games

Off this weekend, the Tigers are riding a confident 6-game win streak in which they’re outscoring opponents by an average of 27 points per game, and sit atop the ACC standings at 5-0 in conference play.

Rankings change: Up 2

Win total prediction: 9.6 games

Texas A&M won the battle for first place in the SEC and moved to 7-1 after a daring swap at quarterback that resulted in Marcel Reed running for 3 touchdowns to lead a comeback against LSU that puts this team squarely in the playoff hunt.

Rankings change: None

Win total prediction: 11 games

Another step forward in this magical run for the Hoosiers, which moved to 8-0 after an impressive victory against Washington, and now ESPN’s model projects they will win every game but one, with the date at Ohio State being the projected exception.

Rankings change: None

Win total prediction: 12 games

Still perfect are the Hurricanes, and in the mix for the ACC title after knocking off the rival Seminoles and with a very winnable schedule the rest of the way for college football’s most productive scoring offense.

Rankings change: None

Win total prediction: 11.1 games

Beau Pribula had to step in at quarterback, and led the go-ahead touchdown drive that put the Nittany Lions over the top at upset-minded Wisconsin, but there are concerns around starting quarterback Drew Allar after he suffered an injury, with the Ohio State game up next.

Rankings change: None

Win total prediction: 11.6 games

While most pollsters have the Ducks at No. 1, the ESPN models are a little more cautious about this team’s expected scoring margin going forward, but still give them the best odds to win the Big Ten title, at 36 percent.

Rankings change: Down 2

Win total prediction: 9 games

ESPN’s computers still like the Rebels to be at least 3 touchdowns better than opponents this season, hence the lofty ranking, but they needed a second-half comeback to take down reeling Oklahoma at home, and moved to 2-2 in SEC play, not what we expected in the preseason.

Rankings change: None

Win total prediction: 10.2 games

Off this weekend, the Vols are coming out of that win against Alabama at 6-1 overall with a 3-1 mark in SEC play and playing some of the nation’s most dominant defense, not allowing more than 17 points in a game this season and ranking 3rd nationally in scoring defense.

Rankings change: Up 2

Win total prediction: 10.4 games

Notre Dame passed an important test by not just beating ranked, undefeated Navy, but trouncing its rival and forcing 6 turnovers in the process, giving the selection committee important evidence that this team has recovered from the NIU loss when it comes to playoff time.

Rankings change: None

Win total prediction: 10 games

Idle in Week 9, the Bulldogs are in high spirits after knocking off Texas on the road the weekend before, and after playing Florida this coming Saturday face two more critical tests, on the road against Ole Miss and at home to Tennessee with everything on the line.

Rankings change: None

Win total prediction: 9.4 games

You likely won’t see Alabama this high in other rankings, but the ESPN models favor this team by 25 points against an “average opponent,” and it did prove itself somewhat with a 34-0 win against Missouri heading into a date at LSU in two weeks.

Rankings change: Down 1

Win total prediction: 10.5 games

Ohio State avoided an near-upset by Nebraska in a close call at home, but there are questions around this team’s performance in big games under Ryan Day’s leadership, especially with a marquee date at Penn State coming up next weekend.

Rankings change: Up 1

Win total prediction: 10.7 games

Texas had to hold off a furious Vanderbilt comeback bid on the road, but held out long enough to avoid the upset and stay at one loss entering November with Florida coming to Austin next after the idle week.

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