Cowboys mailbag: Why a midseason coaching change is unlikely and…hope for the future?

Thank you for submitting your questions to our midseason mailbag. In case you missed the first installment, we discussed Jerry Jones' dynamics and examined the trade potential of key defensive players. In this second edition, we look at why it's unlikely the Dallas Cowboys will make a midseason head coaching change, what it would take for Mike McCarthy to return in 2025, whether there's hope for the future and more . Let's get to work!

Why did the Cowboys expect anything to be different this season without building the run game for offense and building defense to stop the run, two areas of the team that have been crying out for change and improvement for several seasons? —Nick C.

I think the Cowboys relied too much on hope in both areas.

On defense, they were hoping that Mazi Smith would take a big step in his second year and that DeMarvion Overshown's return from an ACL injury would go as advertised. They also made a few changes: They added veteran linebacker Eric Kendricks to the middle of the defense and replaced defensive coordinator Dan Quinn with Mike Zimmer. In particular, the change in defensive coordinator was seen as the main reason for the improvement in run defense. Of course that wasn't the case. The Cowboys are running at 143.2 yards per game, which is sixth-worst in the league. The defense was plagued by injuries, but aside from Sam Williams, it was a mostly healthy unit that was overrun by the New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens in Weeks 2 and 3.

There's enough blame to go around, but it's hard to say where it starts. Zimmer is obviously the culprit, but the front office hasn't made enough upgrades to strengthen the unit when it reaches full strength. Expecting a scheme change to make a big difference when the best run-stopping defensive lineman is on injured reserve and the veteran starting linebacker misses a game might be a little unfair.

There is a similar theme offensively. The Cowboys were hoping Ezekiel Elliott had a lot more left in the tank, but he doesn't. They hoped that Deuce Vaughn could improve his game in his second season, but he failed to do so. They hoped that Rico Dowdle's outstanding potential last year in a complementary role with Tony Pollard would lead to him becoming a capable leader on the committee. Dowdle showed flashes but was not given enough opportunities to make a clear judgment for numerous reasons.

The Cowboys knew they would be paying big money to Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, so they pushed most of the responsibility onto the passing game to drive the offense and be the catalyst for the running game. That didn't happen — the Cowboys rank last in the NFL in rushing yards per game and yards per attempt. The running backs weren't good enough, but the offensive line wasn't good enough either. It also never helps to chase games after falling behind big in the first 20 minutes of the half.

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Is there any reason for fans to believe that there is a serious strategy to compete in the next few seasons? —Thomas P.

I'd like to tell you the exact plan that would make you feel good about it, but it would be dishonest. However, it's also worth noting that the definition of “conflict” here can be clouded by the team's plight. It's worth separating the calamity of the moment from the bigger picture.

If competition means having a team good enough to be in the conference championship game, the Cowboys can get there soon. Two things may be true: The franchise had an inexplicable conference championship drought for nearly three decades, but also had some teams good enough to end that drought. In the last decade, the 2014, 2016 and 2023 Cowboys come to mind.

As much as some people hate to hear it, it's hard to dismiss three straight 12-win seasons as nothing. If you hide the team's logo, most people would assume that it is a “contested” team. But Troy Aikman said this offseason that the Cowboys would look at the 2023 season with great regret over what could have been, and I agree. Last year's team was mostly healthy, led by a quarterback who played at an MVP level and supported by a division rival so weak that it had the home opener in the playoffs until the conference title game. It laid the largest egg imaginable. After that, it would be foolish of me to try to sell you optimism until the Cowboys do something in January to prove they're worth it.

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What game did you call (Mike) McCarthy's Wade Phillips Green Bay game? My money is on Houston. —Bobby M.

Jerry Jones' radio appearance on 105.3 The Fan on Monday made headlines primarily for his comments about Derrick Henry, but an interesting tidbit that got lost in that interview was Jones talking about his regrets about firing Wade Phillips in the middle of the 2010 season to have. This was a situation where Jones had his next coach, Jason Garrett, waiting in the wings. The fact that he says he regrets being fired mid-season makes me think that the hurdle for McCarthy – who is in the final year of his contract – to lose his job mid-season is extremely high.

Making matters worse is that McCarthy isn't just the head coach; He is a head coach, offensive coordinator and game manager. Brian Schottenheimer officially holds the title of offensive coordinator, but from a coaching perspective, this offense is entirely run by McCarthy. There is also no aspiring coach on the team who has the immediate potential of being a head coach. What do you do if you fire McCarthy? Do you make Zimmer, whose defense is perhaps the team's weakest link, interim coach just because he has experience as a head coach? Schottenheimer already has experience as a coordinator, but here too the system and concepts of the offense will not change in the middle of the season.

There are two scenarios in which I could imagine a head coach change mid-season. The first possibility is that the Cowboys continue to fall out of contention so quickly. A protracted pattern would mean either a lack of preparation or players simply not participating and giving up on the coach, which could make a change for the sake of a change appropriate. The other scenario would be if the Cowboys felt like their 2025 coach was on the couch somewhere and wanted to give him the rest of the season to get his feet wet with the off chance that he leads the turnaround in 2024. Bill Belichick's name is often bandied about in the rumor mill, but until that becomes a reality, I don't believe there is a single game on the schedule that will be crucial for McCarthy.

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What will be better for the Cowboys in the long run? 4-13 with a high draft pick and no more McCarthy; 8-9 with McCarthy back; 8-9 without McCarthy; 11-6, lose first round, keep McCarthy? —Alan C.

I don't think McCarthy would come back in any of the scenarios listed here. The talk of McCarthy returning to Dallas next year has little to do with the regular season win total and perhaps begins with the second round of the playoffs, but rather with the conference championship game.

(Top photo by Mike McCarthy: Sam Hodde / Getty Images)