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Who will win the presidential race now? Follow the latest polls

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With Election Day not starting until next week and many Americans already casting their ballots, the heated presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is entering the home stretch.

The ongoing polls reflect divisions over who should become the country's next commander-in-chief. With about a week to go before the 2024 general election, here's what polls, odds and a historian have said over the past nine weeks and how they continue to change as we head toward Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 5.

Who is ahead in the polls and is favored by the odds?

  • ABC News Project 538 shows Harris leading the national polls at 48.1%, ahead of Trump at 46.7% – by 1.4%, a narrower lead again this week. This compares to 48.2% over Trump 46.4% last week, compared to 48.5% over Trump 46.1% two weeks ago, compared to 48.5% over Trump 45.9% three weeks ago, compared to Harris 48.5% over Trump 45.8% four weeks ago compared to Harris 48.3% over Trump 45.6% five weeks ago, compared to Harris 48.3% over Trump 45.3% six weeks ago weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% over Trump 44.4% seven weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% over Trump at 43.9% eight weeks ago, or compared to Harris at 47.0% versus Trump with 43.7% nine weeks ago.
  • 270towin shows Harris leading the national polls by 0.7%, compared to 1.8% over Trump last week, compared to 2.5% over Trump two weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.8% over Trump three weeks ago , compared to Harris 3.7% over Trump four weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump 3% five weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.5% over Trump six weeks ago, compared to Harris 0.9 % over Trump seven weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.7% over Trump eight weeks ago, or compared to Harris 1.9% over Trump nine weeks ago.
  • realclearpolling shows that the betting odds favor Trump with a spread of +0.1 over Harris, a reversal from last week when Harris was favored with a spread of +0.9 over Trump, compared to +1.4 against Trump before two weeks ago, compared to +2 three weeks ago, which were undecided, compared to Harris favored by a spread of +1.8 over Trump four weeks ago, compared to Harris favored by +2.3 over Trump five weeks ago, compared to Harris +2 over Trump six weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.1 over Trump seven weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.8 over Trump eight weeks ago and compared to Harris +1.7 over Trump nine weeks ago.
  • Polymarket, a crypto trading platform, puts the betting audience's odds in favor of Trump 66.5% versus Harris 33.4% – a much larger margin compared to last week's odds of 61.4% versus Harris 38.6%, compared with Trump 56.9% to Harris 42.6% two weeks ago, compared to Trump preferring Harris 7.5% three weeks ago, compared to Harris preferring Trump 2% four weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump at 3% five weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump at 2%% six weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump at 1% seven weeks ago, or compared to Trump over Harris at 4% eight weeks ago or compared to Harris with a 1% lead over Trump nine weeks ago.

Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers apply as of Monday, October 28, 2024.

Historian Allan Lichtman reveals the 2024 presidential election

Presidential historian Allan Lichtman, 77, is a distinguished history professor at American University and has predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election against former President Donald Trump. He says he uses 13 “keys” to make his selection, ranging from economic indicators to candidates’ charisma.

Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election in the last half century, except for the 2000 election, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.

How accurate were polls or ratings in past presidential elections?

According to Conversation, a nonprofit news organization, the betting favorite has lost just twice since 1866.

Survey track record is more challenging because different pollsters surveying different audiences can often achieve higher error rates. According to Pew Research, trust in public opinion polls has suffered due to errors in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. In these two general elections, many surveys underestimated the attractiveness of Republican Donald Trump.

When is Election Day 2024?

Election day is Tuesday, November 5th. Polls in New York are open from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m

When does early voting take place in New York?

In-person early voting for the general election has begun Saturday, October 26th and runs through Sunday, November 3rd. Contact your county elections office for polling locations.

When is the deadline to register to vote in New York?

The deadline for the general election was Saturday, October 26th. All applications – including personal applications – must be received by this date.

Note: It is now too late to register for the 2024 general election.

How to register to vote in New York

There are several ways to register to vote in New York:

  • Register online at elections.ny.gov
  • Register in person at your county board of elections, a state agency voter registration center, or the Department of Motor Vehicles
  • Register via email by requesting a form. You can call 1-800-367-8683 or request a form through the New York Voter Registration Form Request mailing list. Once the form is completed, print it, sign and date it, and mail it to your county board of elections by October 26th.

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