Mass protests are expected in Georgia after Georgian Dream secured victory

Mass protests are expected in the Georgian capital Tbilisi on Monday after the ruling, Russia-friendly Georgian Dream party claimed victory in a disputed parliamentary election this weekend.

The increasingly authoritarian party, which has been in power for 12 years, claimed another electoral victory after Saturday's vote, but the country's pro-Western president and opposition parties have refused to accept the results, saying the vote was dead been neither free nor fair.

The country's pro-Western President Salome Zurabishvili called on the public to protest in central Tbilisi on Monday evening, saying the opposition would not tolerate “electoral fraud” and that “no one can take away Georgia's European future,” according to comments from the Georgian news agency Interpress News Agency.

Georgia's Central Election Commission said on its website Monday that Georgian Dream won 53.9% of the vote, with 99% of the country's electoral districts counted. Georgia has a vibrant opposition movement, but it is fragmented. The four largest opposition coalitions each receive around 8-11% of the vote.

Voter polls ahead of the election showed conflicting views on which direction the vote might go, as pro-government and pro-opposition television channels broadcast conflicting opinion polls on the initial election result.

The election was seen as a defining moment for the former Soviet republic and perhaps its most important vote since independence following the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, with the election seen as a decision about whether to remain within Russia's sphere of influence or pursue previously expressed ambitions, to join the European Union (EU) and NATO.

While Georgian Prime Minister Iraqi Kobakhidze and Georgian Dream's billionaire founder Bidzina Ivanishvili claimed the result was a show of public support for the party's policies and vision for Georgia, opposition parties were quick to criticize the election results and dispute them, citing voter fraud is widespread.

“We do not accept these stolen election results,” Tina Bokuchava, leader of Georgia’s main opposition party, the United National Movement, said at a news conference late Saturday. The party leads a coalition called the Unity-National Movement, which received 10.1% of the vote.

Bokuchava accused Georgian Dream founder Bidzina Ivanishvili of stealing the “European future” from the Georgian people, while calling on the opposition to unite to restore Georgia’s “European future.”

“We do not accept stolen election results and we will not recognize these stolen results… We will fight like never before for the return of our European future and we will not accept the results of stolen elections,” she told Interpress, the news agency reported.

Georgian President Zurabishvili, a staunch critic of the ruling Georgian Dream party, called on citizens to stage a mass protest on Monday evening and described the vote as a “Russian special operation”.

“It was a complete fraud, a complete deprivation of your votes,” Zurabishvili told reporters, flanked by Georgian opposition party leaders, in comments reported by Reuters. She called on Georgians to protest in Tbilisi “to announce to the world that we do not recognize these elections.”

Timothy Ash, emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said the opposition parties that performed best in major cities could “bring large numbers to the streets” to protest. He warned that there was a risk of further violence between protesters and security forces, similar to violent clashes earlier this year following controversial government measures.

“I expect the ruling Georgia Dream regime to deploy large numbers of security forces and apply maximum pressure to deal with the protesters,” Ash said in emailed comments, adding that he “supports the use of Security forces from Russia would not be excluded.” Support [Georgian Dream founder] Ivanishvili,” he said, describing the election as “the latest point of tension between Russia and the West.”

Given the ongoing geopolitical dispute with Russia over influence over the former Soviet landscape, the election results are likely to have caused consternation in Europe and the US. Georgian opposition parties had accused Russia in the run-up to the election of playing a major role in electoral fraud, but Moscow has vehemently denied any wrongdoing.

Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov again said the allegations of election interference were “completely unfounded.”

“We firmly reject such accusations,” Peskov told reporters on Monday, according to comments carried by the TASS news agency and translated by Google. “They have become standard for many countries and at the slightest incident they immediately accuse Russia of interference. No, that is not true, there was no interference and the allegations are absolutely baseless,” he said.

Western officials noted that the election took place against a backdrop of increasing political polarization, highly divisive campaign rhetoric and widespread reports of pressure on voters, but also acknowledged that election day in Georgia was largely orderly.

The International Election Observation Mission, led by the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), noted on Sunday that its international observers generally reported that Georgia's election was “characterized by uneven playing fields, pressures and tensions, but the voters “a large selection was offered”. “is on the ballot paper and that candidates are generally free to choose.

The European Commission also said in a statement that “in general, election day was procedurally well organized and properly conducted” but that voting took place in a “tense environment with frequent compromises on the secrecy of the vote and several procedural inconsistencies, such as: B and reports of intimidation and pressure on voters that have negatively impacted public trust in the process.”

In a separate statement Monday morning, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday that the pre-election environment was “characterized by the ruling party's misuse of public resources, vote buying and voter intimidation, all of which contributed to an uneven playing field.” undermined public and international confidence in the possibility of a fair outcome.

Blinken said the U.S. joined international and local observers' calls for a comprehensive investigation of “all reports of election-related violations” and called on Georgia's leadership to “respect the rule of law, repeal laws that undermine fundamental freedoms, and… To remedy deficiencies in the legislation.” Push forward the electoral process together.

Blinken concluded his statement by reminding Tbilisi that Georgia's European and Euro-Atlantic integration goals “require that the government respect the rights of members of civil society and the fundamental freedoms of all Georgian citizens.”

It is uncertain how committed Georgia remains to pro-Western integration.

Prime Minister Kobachidze said on Monday that European integration remains the government's top foreign policy priority and the target for joining the union is 2030. However, the ruling party's domestic and foreign policies have become increasingly authoritarian in recent years, scaling back its commitments to consolidating democratic values ​​in line with its EU membership aspirations.

Georgian Dream's introduction of a Russian-style “foreign agent” law this summer to curb perceived foreign influence was seen not only as a restriction on media freedom and LGBT rights, but also as a further trend towards one Kremlin-style authoritarian rule and mass protests. The police reacted harshly.

The party initially supported Georgia's pro-Western course but has since become cooler on that front and the party's anti-democratic policies have raised concerns in Brussels as EU accession negotiations were frozen earlier this year.

Georgian Dream campaigned on an anti-war platform, claiming a vote for pro-Western opposition parties would lead Georgia down the path to direct conflict with Russia, as in Ukraine.