Nate Silver predicts Kamala Harris' path to victory

Pollster Nate Silver on Saturday predicted a path for Vice President Kamala Harris to “likely” win the Nov. 5 election through the so-called “Blue Wall.”

The “Blue Wall” consists of 18 states and the District of Columbia, which has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in most elections since 1992. The Blue Wall states include: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Maryland, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington, as well as the key battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin .

Former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, defeated his Democratic opponent, former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, in his first presidential bid in 2016 through Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. As the 2024 campaign season draws to a close, Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, and Trump are pushing hard to win swing states – including the three that are part of the Blue Wall that Trump won in 2016 but lost enough votes to President Joe Biden in 2020 for the presidency.

Silver, founder of ABC News poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight, has developed his own presidential model that predicts various outcomes in this year's election. Silver is no longer affiliated with ABC News or FiveThirtyEight.

In a post on his Substack blog on Saturday, he wrote: “If Harris wins the three blue wall states, she probably wins (though not definitely).”

Silver said that if Trump wins Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, “technically that doesn't mean he gets into the White House, but from a practical standpoint it probably does – Harris would have to sweep all the other battlegrounds.”

The other battleground states in this election are Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia.

“If they are divided, there are more good scenarios for Trump than bad, but the map would be very interesting,” he added.

Newsweek emailed Harris and Trump's campaigns seeking comment.

How are the candidates doing in Michigan?

Silver said in his Substack post Saturday that Harris has a 56 percent chance of winning Michigan.

According to Silver's polling averages, Harris has a 0.7 percentage point lead over Trump on Sunday (48.1 percent to 47.4 percent).

FiveThirtyEight's polling averages show an even narrower gap between Harris and Trump. The vice president has 47.6 percent of voter support, compared to 47.3 percent for Trump on Sunday.

How are the candidates doing in Pennsylvania?

Silver gave Harris a 46 percent chance of winning Pennsylvania in Saturday's Substack post.

According to Silver's model, Trump leads Harris by 0.3 points (48.3 to 48 percent) in the Keystone State on Sunday.

FiveThirtyEight also had Trump slightly ahead of Harris on Sunday (48 to 47.7 percent).

How are the candidates doing in Wisconsin?

According to Silver's Saturday Substack post, Haris has a 53 percent chance of winning Wisconsin.

According to Silver's numbers from Sunday, the vice president is 0.5 points ahead of Trump (48.5 to 48 percent).

Harris' lead shrinks when you look at FiveThirtyEight's numbers from Sunday, which put Harris at 47.9 percent voter support and Trump at 47.7 percent.

How are the candidates doing nationwide?

National polls only predict the popular vote, which, as Silver put it Saturday, is “just a beauty contest” because America's electoral college system distributes the presidency to the candidate with 270 or more electoral votes (which are distributed to the states based on their electoral votes). (number of senators and representatives) and not the total number of votes cast throughout the country. However, national polls can help predict trends in state polls.

Silver's presidential model has Harris leading Trump nationally by 1.2 points (48.6 to 47.4 percent) as of Sunday. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight has the vice president ahead with 48 percent of the vote, compared to Trump with 46.7 percent.

How are the candidates doing in the other swing states?

According to Silver's polling average on Sunday, Trump is ahead of Harris in North Carolina (48.9 percent to 47.6 percent), Georgia (49 percent to 47.6 percent) and Arizona (49.4 percent to 47.3 percent). According to Silver's model, the two are tied in Nevada with 47.9 percent of voter support.

FiveThirtyEight's polling averages on Sunday put Trump ahead of Harris again in North Carolina (48.5 percent to 47.1 percent), Georgia (48.7 percent to 47 percent) and Arizona (48.8 percent to 46.7 percent). The former president also has a slight lead in Nevada (47.6 to 47.3 percent), says FiveThirtyEight.