Why North Korea would go to war for Russia

• North Korea sent thousands of soldiers to support Russia in the war against Ukraine.
• U.S. officials remain concerned about what Kim might receive in return, which analysts and officials say could be military technology.
• Kim and Putin have deepened their alliance and even signed a defense pact.

North Korea has sent thousands of soldiers to Russia as the alliance between the countries deepens, and they appear to be headed to the front lines in the Ukraine war.

The US said last week it had evidence of the arrival of about 3,000 North Korean troops at Russian military bases for possible deployment in Ukraine, confirming previous intelligence from both Ukraine and South Korea. The White House said the US assumed the soldiers were undergoing training.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said Monday he could “confirm that North Korean troops have been sent to Russia and that North Korean military units have been deployed in the Kursk region,” where Ukrainian forces invaded Russian territory in early August.

Later on Monday, the Defense Ministry updated its figures and said 10,000 North Korean soldiers were en route. A Pentagon spokesman said: “We are increasingly concerned that Russia intends to use these soldiers in combat or to support combat operations against Ukrainian forces.”

Why is North Korea helping Russia?

Relations between Russia and North Korea entered a new phase earlier this year when Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signed a new mutual defense agreement during a summit in Pyongyang.

The defense pact, which the Russian State Duma ratified last Thursday, stipulates that the signatories will help each other in the event of an armed attack. The moment marks the closest North Korean-Russian ties since the Cold War.

Putin and Kim strengthened their ties during the Ukraine war and met last fall to discuss an arms deal that ultimately led to North Korea supplying ammunition and weapons to Russia. This event followed previous interactions with similar purposes.

This growing partnership between Russia and North Korea, countries allied in their position against the US-led liberal world order, has led to their current state during this war.

What support does Russia receive?

The United States first accused North Korea of ​​sending munitions to Russia in September 2022, and Ukrainian and American officials have documented the use of North Korean weapons, including ballistic missiles, on the battlefield. Estimates of how much ammunition Pyongyang has sent to Moscow vary, but the West and South Korea believe the total amount of artillery ammunition is somewhere in the millions.

Russia has used North Korea's weapons as a stopgap measure as it grapples with the high demands of this conflict on industries hit by sanctions and hit by production problems. The Russians also use weapons systems from Iran. The quality and performance of the weapons provided was mixed.

Just as Russia struggled with ammunition shortages, it also struggled with personnel shortages in this conflict with many casualties.

“Over 600,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in Putin's war, and he is unable to sustain his assault in Ukraine without foreign support,” NATO chief Rutte said on Monday, saying it was a sign of “growing desperation “ about Putin's end to North Korean armed forces.

What does North Korea get in return?

It is unclear what exactly is driving North Korea to become increasingly involved in the war and send troops to Russia. “We don’t have a good feel for that,” Kirby, spokesman for the White House National Security Council, told reporters last week. “But that’s what concerns us so much.”

Kim is in a strong position to demand food, petroleum products or even military technology, all of which analysts have identified as possibilities. By sending troops rather than just arms and ammunition, Pyongyang appears to be paying a very high price in return, which is telling in its own way.

Nuclear submarine technologies that North Korea wants could be a tall order. North Korea also has an aging fighter jet fleet that it wants to upgrade and wants advanced satellite technologies. It could also seek to improve its defense industrial base.

But North Korea's nuclear weapons and missile programs are the crown jewels. In June, when the focus was solely on weapons and ammunition, US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said that any discussions about what North Korea would get from Russia would likely include “plans to develop nuclear weapons or long-range missiles.”

Due to its close ties with Russia and its involvement in the Ukraine War, North Korea also has a certain amount of influence over the USA and its allies. Through the participation of its military in the war in Ukraine, combat experience and performance data of its weapons can be collected.

How do friends and enemies react?

Kim's apparent decision to send North Korean troops to support Russia's war has raised a number of alarms. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called this a “very serious problem.”

The Biden administration will “continue to increase” security assistance to Kyiv and is discussing “the right next steps” with allies and partners, Kirby said. He noted that the US would also communicate with China on this issue.

China remained silent in public. A State Department spokesman said last week that Beijing had “no information” about the operation and would continue to push for de-escalation in the conflict. Beijing has often allied with Russia and North Korea, and Western officials have accused China of also providing military aid to Russia in return for certain technology and information.

North Korea's involvement in the war in Ukraine is perhaps most concerning to South Korea beyond Ukraine. The country's spy service reported that Kim had promised Russia around 10,000 soldiers and that these forces had been training in Russia since September.

The development has prompted Seoul's leaders to reconsider their longstanding ban on direct arms sales to a conflict-affected country. South Korea previously supported Ukraine through a loophole, sending ammunition through allies and partners, including the United States. But last week, senior South Korean officials hinted that a policy change was being considered.

Such a move would draw both Koreas deeper into the conflict and risk raising tensions at an already tense time on the peninsula.