Cracks, air leaks and dangerous space debris: NASA identifies the biggest threats to the aging ISS

On Saturday, November 2, humans will have lived continuously in space on the International Space Station (ISS) for 24 years. It's certainly been a significant quarter century, and the ISS isn't getting any younger. The current plan calls for the space station to continue operating until 2030 and then be deorbited in 2031. But a new audit has found that the plan carries risks and even the data is far from secure.

What is now crucial is that there is no immediate danger to the astronauts and cosmonauts on board. Even after the planned operational duration has been exceeded, the ISS continues to function well. However, in the long term there are increased risks that must be taken extremely seriously. A pressing concern is leaks, particularly from the Russian segment of the ISS; The loss of atmosphere in space peaked just a few months ago.

“Persistent cracks and air leaks in the service module transfer tunnel pose a major safety risk; NASA and Roscosmos are working together to investigate and repair the cracks and leaks, determine the root cause and monitor the station for new leaks. However, in April 2024, NASA noted an increase in the leak rate to its highest level to date,” the report said.

Over the summer, NASA and Roscosmos – the Russian space agency – sealed off several of the 50 areas of concern discovered. Not all of these were believed to be leaks; some may have been simple scratches on the surface.

Not all risk of leaks is due to age or wear. A few years ago, one of Russia's Soyuz capsules was hit by a micrometeoroid, or a small piece of space debris. This led to a coolant leak that forced the two cosmonauts and an astronaut who had flown with them to remain there for another six months while waiting for another capsule to be dispatched.

The report actually highlights the importance of these two points. NASA has decided to take some risks when it comes to micrometeorites and orbital debris (MMOD) as the cost of installing protective exterior walls increases. The agency plans to expand its ability to track debris in orbit to detect threats before they arise.

Another related point is the ability of astronauts to find shelter in the spacecraft on which they traveled. However, protection may not be enough if evacuation is necessary.

“While the ISS program has sufficient plans and procedures in place to ensure crew safety in response to routine or emergency threats to station operations, these plans are continually evolving,” the report summary continued. “However, due to high costs and a limited budget, the agency is unable to respond immediately when crew vehicles sustain significant damage and are no longer safe for crew evacuation due to a lack of ready-to-launch vehicles.”

The other looming issue is the schedule. The ISS is a collaboration between NASA, Roscosmos, the European Space Agency, the Japan Space Agency and the Canadian Space Agency. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on many Russian officials, Roscosmos announced several times that it would withdraw from the ISS and build its own space station. While these plans currently remain rhetorical at best, the other agencies have agreed to keep the ISS operational until at least 2030.

One point of contention is the idea that there should be several private space stations in low Earth orbit by this year, as well as the gateway around the moon, so that NASA operations in space can continue. This is no longer certain as there are significant delays in returning to the Moon, including SpaceX's Starship not being ready on time. NASA may therefore want to keep the ISS running a little longer.

Whether the station is six or twelve years old, further repairs and upgrades are required, which may involve components that are no longer in production. Supply chain problems will only get worse if the ISS has to continue operations beyond 2030. Last but not least, there is the question of whether the ISS can actually be brought down safely. Currently, this is only possible with Roscosmos' Soyuz rocket.

“Without Russia’s commitment to the current deorbit plan, the ability to conduct controlled deorbit is unclear. In June 2024, NASA awarded SpaceX a contract to develop the US deorbit vehicle to conduct controlled orbit of the ISS in 2031,” the report said. “However, uncertainty about the readiness of commercial LEO targets, limited budget availability, and potential delay in availability of the U.S. deorbit vehicle present additional timing challenges and risks to NASA's 2031 deorbit plan.”

The importance of the International Space Station over the past 24 years has been undeniable. This report highlights what needs to be taken seriously for its continued mission and reminds that space is not easy.