The Yankees are poised for a World Series win over the Dodgers: What history says about the incredibly slim chances of a comeback

Ahead of Game 4 of the 2024 World Series on Tuesday night, the New York Yankees face the almost impossible. Their 4-2 loss in Game 3 to the Los Angeles Dodgers means they now trail 3-0 in the best-of-seven series. So the Yankees face the following grim reality: They have to win four straight against, let's be honest here, the best team in baseball.

Only twice during the regular season did the Dodgers suffer a losing streak of four or more games. The last time was in early July, and the first time they missed five games the entire season was in May. Under these circumstances, of course, the Dodgers were no more than one win away from the eighth World Championship in franchise history and therefore didn't hurt the Torpedoes to the extent they will for the rest of this series.

Now we come to the point where the Yankees face the forces of history. In the entire history of Major League Baseball's best-of-seven postseason series, 40 teams have finished 0-3. Of these 40 teams, exactly one was able to successfully overcome this deficit and win the series. As you probably know, that team was the 2004 Red Sox, who overcame a 3-0 deficit against, yes, the Yankees and won the 2004 ALCS.

If there's any consolation for the Yankees in this lonely, isolated historical model, it's the fact that the 2004 Red Sox pulled off their miracle under the exact same circumstances the Yankees are currently facing. That means they won Games 4 and 5 at home before winning the final two games of the series on the road. For the current Yankees model, that amounts to hanging by a razor-thin thread, but we reckon it's something.

Now let’s take time for coincidences (not ironies). Coincidentally, current Dodgers manager Dave Roberts played a crucial supporting role in the Red Sox' comeback two decades ago. With his Red Sox trailing 4-3 in the bottom of the ninth in Game 4, Roberts grabbed second as a pinch-runner for Kevin Millar, putting himself in the scoring position as a potential tie-breaker. Relive it with us, won't you?

Soon after, Roberts scored on Bill Mueller's single – the Red Sox's only hit of the inning against extremely tight end Mariano Rivera. The game lasted until the 12th inning, when David Ortiz's walk-off home run verified an unprecedented comeback.

After his team's win in Game 3, Roberts was inevitably asked about his role in the Sox's defying odds and history in 2004. Understandably, he wasn't having any of it. “Don’t talk about it,” Roberts said Monday night after the game. “The wrong one. Way too soon.”

So noted.

Our second, decidedly lesser coincidence. Is it that Yankees manager Aaron Boone has been in this predicament before? His Yankees fell 3-0 to the Astros in the ALCS in the 2022 postseason, and in a perhaps dubious attempt to inspire his charges, he invoked the 2004 ALCS, which, it should be emphasized, the Yankees defeated , had lost. We wrote then:

“Manager Aaron Boone told MLB.com's Bryan Hoch that mental coach Chad Bohling shared highlight videos of the 2004 Red Sox on Sunday morning. Additionally, ESPN analyst Eduardo Perez had a video call with David Ortiz, a member of that team. during Boone's pregame media availability session in his office.

The record shows that this tactic didn't work, as the Astros closed out the series and secured victory with a 6-5 victory in Game 4 of the 2022 ALCS.

This brings us back to the present moment. What is hopeful from the Yankees' perspective is that they have a slightly better chance of avoiding a sweep than they do of staging a complete comeback and winning the series. Of course, this is as you would expect, but let's remember it anyway. As described above, only one of the 40 teams that were 0-3 in a best-of-seven MLB playoff series has won four straight to clinch the series. That means, at least given the history of these things, the Yankees have a 2.5 percent chance of joining the 2004 Red Sox. And what specifically about Game 4 on Tuesday? According to WhoWins.com, nine of those 40 teams from 0-3 managed to win Game 4 and escape victory. So the story goes that the Yankees have a comparatively high 22.5% chance of forcing a Game 5 on Wednesday (and thereby handing the ball to ace Gerrit Cole). Given that the Yankee mentality right now must be “just win a game,” perhaps there is hope here (though not much).

If Boone is inclined to pump out more action sports footage in the name of a rousing comeback, maybe he should turn to another sport on the whole? More specifically, Boone should probably put together an uplifting hockey mixtape. That's because four teams in the National Hockey League were able to win a postseason series after falling behind 3-0. Those teams are the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs, the 1975 New York Islanders, the 2010 Philadelphia Flyers and the 2014 Los Angeles Kings. Sure, this is a completely different sport – bulletin coming soon – but the teams in the current league The Yankees can't be so picky about their sources of inspiration.

Teams overcome 0-3 deficit

(In best-of-seven series in MLB, NHL and NBA)

So the Yankees enter Game 4 knowing they will likely be defeated and their 2024 season will almost certainly end without achieving their larger goal. However, all is not lost until all is lost, and not all is lost at present.

Check back later to see if all is lost. If you have a soft spot for the Dodgers, check back later to see if all is won.