Colts Week 8 QB Analysis: We all need a breather

Thanks to them nflFastR Project, Professional football focus And NFL NextGen Stats for the current data sources.

For those of you new to this space, I will be posting key QB stats each week to assess how well the upcoming opposing QB has performed. Yes, the O-line, receivers and play-calling affect these numbers, but they are primarily QB measures. I'll probably change the charts throughout the season. The comment will be short, but please let me know in the comments that statistics aren't everything. (Click on the charts for a larger view)

I want to talk about incompleteness. When it comes to Anthony Richardson's completion rate, I see a lot of coping, excuses, and goal postponing. Sure, you could blame receiver drops or play calls for some of his problems, but that's really just sweeping the problem under the rug. His 2024 graduation rate is 44.4%. No amount of rationalization will bring this number to an acceptable level.

Let's just say it. He has a problem completing passes. It wasn't that difficult at all. That doesn't mean he's a bad QB, and it doesn't mean he can't get better. In a recent article, Chris Shepherd expressed the following:

“He worked on his reads, found the open man, got the right feet and threw the ball. The problem wasn't his accuracy, but the fact that from the moment he found his receiver to the moment he When he actually made the throw, too much time passed for the defensive backs to make a jump and break up the passes.”

I rely on Completion % Above Average (cpoe) to measure a QB's “accuracy,” but that's really a misnomer. CPOE doesn't know whether a ball was on target or not, nor does it know whether it was dropped by a receiver or hit at the line, so to me, equating cpoe with accuracy is, well, inaccurate.

What cpoe does do very well, however, is consider variables like downs, distance, passing depth, etc. to determine what the average QB's completion percentage would be in these situations. Richardson's CPOE for 2024 is -13.9%, which is the worst in the league. Some of this number is due to inaccuracy, but for Chris, the fact that his CPOE isn't getting better doesn't mean he isn't improving. It just means he hasn't improved enough to show in the results.

We know he has a finishing problem. We don't have to shift the blame onto other players, coaches or opponents. Maybe he's better, maybe not. Just keep an eye on his CPOE, if he keeps improving then we'll know he's turned the corner.

DASHBOARD

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between weekly and season stats.)

arsr,
EDP,
opd,
sg%,
oz%,
pr%,
tttt,
adot,
ay/c,
cmp%,
cpoe,
yac,
Yacoe,
Yes,
scr%,
ta%,
sck%,
aa%,
aay,
ny/d,
1.%,
td%,
To%,
epa/d,
psr

The running game was good, but the Colts still went ahead with the pass for reasons (14 Arsr, 13 Edp).
Richardson held the ball for an average of over 3 seconds, which contributed in part to the fact that he was under pressure all day (10 TTT, 3 PR%).
His average attempt depth was over 15 yards and since he completed some of them, his average completion depth was also quite high (1 Adot, 10 Ay/C).
The disadvantage of these long throws is that you can't make many of them (32. cmp%, 32. cpoe).
He was the YAC king of the week, but still only managed 5.7 yards per attempt in the end (1 Yac, 31 YPA).
Because of all the pressure, his break rate was high and this week it was mostly sacks (9th AA%, 3rd Sck%). He didn't throw the ball away once (draw 29th Ta%).
His total yardage was 4.6 net yards per dropback, which didn't help move the chains at all (31st ny/d, 30th 1%).
His TD% was poor and the turnover rate was worse (22nd TD%, 2nd to%)

That was bad. He threw a lot of contested balls and it didn't go well. He ranked 30th in EPA efficiency and 32nd in passing success rate. He's definitely in the bottom tier of QBs this year.

HOW WELL?

In the first three quarters of the game he only had three plays that brought positive added value. He had a decent fourth quarter, but it's far too inconsistent to have a successful passing game.