Satellite photos show the Israeli strike likely hit a key Iranian Revolutionary Guard missile base

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Israel's attack on Iran It likely damaged a base of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, which builds and fires ballistic missiles as part of its own space program, satellite images analyzed by The Associated Press on Tuesday showed.

The damage to the base in Shahroud raises new questions about the Israeli attack early Saturday, particularly since it took place in territory previously unrecognized by Tehran and involved the Guard, a powerful force within Iran's theocracy that has so far been reported as possible Damage remained silent suffered from the attack. Iran has only noted that Israeli attacks took place in Ilam, Khuzestan and Tehran provinces – but not in rural Semnan province, where the base is located.

It also potentially further limits the Guard's ability to produce the solid-fuel missiles it needs to stockpile as a deterrent against Israel. Tehran has long relied on this arsenal because it cannot buy the advanced Western weaponry that Israel and Tehran's Arab Gulf neighbors have armed themselves with over the years, particularly from the United States.

Satellite photos previously analyzed by the AP Reports on two military bases near Tehran that were also attacked by Israel show that sites used by Iran to make ballistic missiles there were destroyed, further limiting its program.

“We don’t know whether Iranian production has been crippled, as some say, or simply damaged,” said Fabian Hinz, a missile expert and research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies who studies Iran. “We have seen enough images to show that there is an impact.”

The Iranian mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Israeli military declined to answer questions from the AP but sent an earlier statement confirming that it targeted “missile production facilities” in the attack.

Pictures show the destroyed main building at Shahroud base

High-resolution satellite images from Planet Labs PBC captured and analyzed for the AP showed the damage at the Guard's Shahroud Space Center in Semnan, about 370 kilometers (230 miles) northeast of the Iranian capital Tehran. Semnan also hosts the Imam Khomeini Space Centerused by Iran's civil space program.

The images showed that a central, large building at the Shahroud Space Center had been destroyed. The shadow of its still-standing frame could be seen in the image taken Tuesday morning. Vehicles likely belonging to officials inspecting the damage could be seen around the site, and more cars than usual were parked at the site's main gate nearby.

Three small buildings south of the main building also appeared to be damaged. Iran has constructed new buildings at the base in recent months. Another hangar northeast of the main building also appeared to have been damaged.

Iran has not acknowledged any attack on Shahroud. However, given the damage caused to several buildings, it suggested that the Israeli attack involved targeted attacks on the base. Low-resolution images since the attack showed signs of damage at the site that were not seen before the attack – further suggesting that Israeli missile strikes were the cause.

“We cannot 100% rule out the possibility that it is something else, but it is almost certain that this building was damaged by an Israeli attack,” Hinz said.

Given that the large building was surrounded by earthworks, this suggests that high explosives were used there, said Hinz, who has long studied the site. This central location would likely be responsible for solid fuel mixing and pouring, he added.

The large boxes next to the building are also likely boxes containing rocket engines, Hinz said. Their size suggests they could be used for Iran's Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile and the Fattah 1, a missile that Iran claims can reach Mach 15 – which is 15 times the speed of sound. Both were used in Iran's attacks on Israel during the Israel-Hamas War and the later ground invasion of Lebanon.

The attack on Shahroud, along with other attacks across the country, has likely put more pressure on the Iranian theocracy, especially as it assesses the damage to its main weapons arsenal and tries to downplay the attack.

“Due to the readiness and vigilance of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the timely response of the country's air defense, only limited damage was caused to some of the hit points,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claimed in a meeting with foreign diplomats in Tehran on Tuesday. “The necessary measures were taken immediately to restore the damaged equipment to an operational condition.”

The US fears that Guard's space program could be a cover for rocket research

Not far from the destroyed buildings is a concrete launch pad used by the Guard, which has carried out a number of successful missions launching satellites into space using mobile launch vehicles. The Guard, which reports only to the 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, revealed its secret space program back in 2020.

The U.S. intelligence community's 2024 Global Threat Assessment said Iran's continued development of satellite launch vehicles would “shorten the timeline for production” of an ICBM because it uses similar technology.

ICBMs can be used to deliver nuclear weapons. After the collapse of its nuclear deal with world powers, Iran is now producing uranium that is close to weapons-grade levels. Tehran has enough enriched uranium for “multiple” nuclear weapons if it decides to produce them. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly warned.

Iran has always denied seeking nuclear weapons and said its space program, like its nuclear activities, are purely civilian. However, U.S. intelligence agencies and the IAEA say Iran had an organized military nuclear program until 2003. A building linked to this program was destroyed in Parchin, one of two military bases near Tehran attacked by Israel.

“As with the Iranian nuclear program, you are not building the system itself, but rather the entire technology under the guise of a civilian program,” said Hinz.

Iran could then make the decision to pursue the weapon – or use its knowledge as a basis for negotiations with the West about international sanctions.

But for now, the satellite photos suggest that Iran is still trying to assess the consequences of the Israeli attack.

“The picture that is emerging is one of significant damage to Iran's air defenses as well as missile launch sites, both of which are intended to show the Iranians that they are vulnerable to further attacks if they attempt to retaliate,” two said in an analysis published on Monday Experts from the British Royal United Services Institute.