Sunanda K. Datta Ray | Israel can celebrate Sinwar's killing, but the war is not over yet

Real change, especially after the drone attacks on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's private residence, requires innovative thinking on both sides of what appears to be a permanently impenetrable barrier of hostility. The Oslo Accords, the pair of interim agreements between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization signed in Washington DC in 1993 and in Taba, Egypt in 1995, must be the basis of any long-term agreement, but we must also recognize that they are There are fewer long-term agreements and are less likely to directly shape the future.

The brutality of the Hamas attack on October 7 last year, blamed for the current vicious cycle of Israeli violence, could prove to be a crucial turning point in the sad story of what Palestinians call the “Naqba,” or catastrophe, that she overwhelmed lives in 1948. In short, this means that the two-nation solution that this columnist – among others – has been pushing for may not be the defining mantra for tomorrow. The reason is that Israel will not allow this.

The United States will not force Mr. Netanyahu, and the international order is not strong enough or unwilling to force the United States.

Nothing speaks more eloquently than numbers. When I compared national wealth at a meeting in Haifa on my only visit to Israel more than half a century ago, a veteran leader of Histadrut, Israel's national union, told me that India's population had made it one of the richest countries in the world. In the short term, money may seem more effective, but he was convinced that in the long term nothing compares to a workforce that is properly inspired and mobilized.

Management is critical to the most effective Arab military force. The Arab Legion, later renamed the Royal Jordan Army, was most effective when a British general, Sir John Glubb, was its commander.

Applying the Histradrut official's logic, 9.9 million Israelis represent a paltry opponent against more than 473 million Arabs. The phenomenal oil wealth of many Arab nations is irrelevant; Thanks to their manpower, Hamas and Hezbollah have been able to withstand the intensity of Israeli attacks throughout these weeks, causing more than 42,000 deaths in Gaza alone. Because of its numerical strength, Hamas has still delivered about 100 of the hostages it took on October 7, while also killing about 1,200 Israelis.

Recalling that Mr. Netanyahu announced in early October that Israel's campaign, Operation Swords of Iron, had two goals – the destruction of Hamas and the release of the hostages – it must be admitted that, despite the terrible loss of life and the destruction of cities, villages, etc. Even if most of the basic facilities of civilization were destroyed, the campaign was a failure. Mr. Netanyahu has not destroyed Hamas – at least not yet – and he has not released all the hostages.

Furthermore, Hamas and Hezbollah's recruitment drive shows no signs of abating. With the Arab population growing by leaps and bounds every year without any issues of birth control standing in the way, there will always be an abundance of martyrs willing to die for the Palestinian cause. Still, the gains Israel has made are significant, if only the Israelis weren't hungry for more: the Oslo process, begun after secret negotiations in the Norwegian capital, resulted in both the recognition of Israel by the Palestine Liberation Organization and the recognition of the PLO Israel as representative of the Palestinian people

and as a partner in bilateral negotiations. Although this peace process does not lead to a peace agreement based on United Nations Security Council Resolutions 242 and 338, it does provide a basis for smooth coexistence between Israelis and Palestinians.

There are numerous cases around the world claiming that institutional sovereignty is not essential to nationality. Even if the Dalai Lama leaves, the Tibetan central administration and its democratic institutions remain the legitimate political successor to His Holiness. Sri Lanka's Tamils ​​are a nation, even if Colombo refuses to discuss decentralization despite a bitter and bloody 30-year war.

Quebec was not allowed to secede. The sovereign Kurdistan promised by the 1920 Treaty of Sevres never materialized. The autonomy of Iraq's Kurds, who make up around 20 percent of the population, is enshrined in the 2005 constitution, which declares Kurdistan an autonomous federal region.

There are numerous models to choose from. It should not be impossible to find a federal agreement with international sponsors for the people of Gaza and the West Bank, as well as monitored no-fly zones like Iraq. One obstacle is that, despite the PLO's recognition of Israel, Israel has never recognized the exclusive identity of the Palestinians. To Israel, Palestinians are either Arabs pretending to be something else or Jordanians flaunting a fancy name. But these are just words like Israel calling the West Bank by the mythical biblical names “Judea and Samaria.”

More dangerous than the fantasy of claiming that Judea and Samaria are part of Eretz Israel (Greater Israel) is the Israeli tactic of fragmenting the West Bank into 165 “islands” where Palestinians live and 230 settlements for Jews.

More than 500,000 Israelis have moved to the West Bank, excluding East Jerusalem, where another 220,000 Jews live. Another 20,000 Israeli citizens live in settlements in the Golan Heights that were captured by Syria.

In addition, the West Bank is crisscrossed by military roads and dotted with Israeli military checkpoints and watchtowers. Without clearance from the Israeli military, there can be no movement on the site, and Palestinian fields, farms and olive groves are reportedly not safe from the looting of armed Israeli vigilantes. No power can or will force the Israelis to dismantle the sophisticated and extensive security structure they have been allowed to establish since the 1967 war. They might as well be asked to remove the all-weather mobile air defense system called Iron Dome, which protects Israel from Palestinian rocket and missile fire. The task of the global community is to ensure that Palestinian autonomy is not wiped out by these pressures.